地理科学 ›› 2021, Vol. 41 ›› Issue (4): 553-561.doi: 10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2021.04.001

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中国城市人口户籍迁移的估算及时空特征——新型城镇化的落户政策导向

刘涛(), 刘嘉杰, 曹广忠()   

  1. 北京大学城市与环境学院/北京大学未来城市研究中心,北京 100871
  • 收稿日期:2019-12-18 修回日期:2020-02-25 出版日期:2021-04-10 发布日期:2021-06-04
  • 通讯作者: 曹广忠 E-mail:liutao@pku.edu.cn;caogzh@urban.pku.edu.cn
  • 作者简介:刘涛(1987−),男,安徽宿州人,博士,研究员,主要从事人口迁移与城镇化研究。E-mail:liutao@pku.edu.cn
  • 基金资助:
    国家自然科学基金项目(41801146);教育部人文社科青年基金项目(18YJC840022);英国研究理事会全球挑战研究基金项目(ES/P011055/1)

Estimating and Interpreting China’s Hukou Migration Under the Strategy of New-type Urbanization

Liu Tao(), Liu Jiajie, Cao Guangzhong()   

  1. College of Urban and Environmental Sciences/Center for Urban Future Research, Peking University, Beijing 100871, China
  • Received:2019-12-18 Revised:2020-02-25 Online:2021-04-10 Published:2021-06-04
  • Contact: Cao Guangzhong E-mail:liutao@pku.edu.cn;caogzh@urban.pku.edu.cn
  • Supported by:
    National Natural Science Foundation of China(41801146);Ministry of Education Fund for Humanities and Social Sciences(18YJC840022);UKRI’s Global Challenge Research Fund(ES/P011055/1)

摘要:

基于户籍人口自然与机械增长的分解,估算2011—2017年全国地级及以上城市的户籍迁移人口,对比分析户籍迁移和人口流动的时空特征,评估国家新型城镇化战略中按规模等级引导城市落户政策的影响。结果表明,近年来,中国户籍迁移日趋活跃,人口迁移与流动的空间格局高度耦合;迁入热点区主要集中在沿海三大城市群,迁出地较为分散,以长江中游和东北地区迁出最多。特大城市对流动人口落户的吸引力最强,一线城市户籍迁移持续活跃,新兴二线城市的迁入规模快速提升;而即使普遍没有落户限制,中小城市的吸引力仍十分有限,户籍迁出趋势持续强化。

关键词: 人口迁移, 户籍迁移, 新型城镇化, 落户政策, 政策评估

Abstract:

Migration in China is a process that involves not only floating to destinations but also settling down there by gaining local Hukou. The second step, in particular, has become the primary concern of the recent new-type urbanization. But, important as it is, our knowledge about this particular step is severely restricted due largely to data limitation, and this article tries to overcome the restriction. In the article, we first estimate the number of Hukou migration at the 277 prefecture level cities (not including Sanya, Danzhou, Haidong, Hulunbuir, Bayannur, Wuhu, Bengbu, Zhengzhou, Pingdingshan, Nanyang, Huangshi and cities of Xinjiang, Xizang, Hong Kong, Macau, Taiwan) between 2011 and 2017; We then compare its spatiotemporal patterns with those of floating population over the period, and we further evaluate the impact of New-type Urbanization Plan on its patterns. Results show that Hukou migration has become increasingly active in recent years, and its spatial patterns are highly similar to those of the floating population. Popular destinations are primarily situated in the three coastal regions, whereas the geographic distribution of origin is much less clustered, with the highest out-Hukou-migration being found in the middle Yangtze River and Northeast China. Mega-cities are where the local Hukou is most pursed, first-tier cities maintain a persistent attraction for Hukou migration; and the emerging second-tier cities have seen a rapid increase in the intake of this migration. Small and median-sized cities, by contrast, are very uncompetitive, despite that all the restrictions on Hukou transfer have been removed there. These cities have even seen an increasing out-migration of their Hukou-holders. The results revealed here are the basis on which our advice for policy makers are made. The advice is not simply on the issue of Hukou reforms, but also touches the topics of balanced regional development and reduced urban inequality. The results also highlight the exciting research prospect of both Hukou migration and new-type urbanization, a prospect that requires both creative imaginations and vigorous investigations of China’s prospect of both Hukou migration and new-type urbanization, a prospect that requires both creative imaginations and vigorous investigations of China’s migration.

Key words: population migration, Hukou migration, new-type urbanization, settlement policy, policy assessment

中图分类号: 

  • K901.3