地理科学 ›› 2021, Vol. 41 ›› Issue (5): 747-758.doi: 10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2021.05.002
收稿日期:
2020-01-09
修回日期:
2020-04-12
出版日期:
2021-05-10
发布日期:
2021-07-15
作者简介:
汪明峰(1977−),男,浙江绍兴人,教授,博导,主要从事城市地理与互联网地理研究。E-mail: mfwang@re.ecnu.edu.cn
基金资助:
Wang Mingfeng1,2,3(), Zhao Yuping1,3
Received:
2020-01-09
Revised:
2020-04-12
Online:
2021-05-10
Published:
2021-07-15
Supported by:
摘要:
以P2P网贷平台为例,探究中国互联网金融企业生存的时空差异及其影响因素。结果表明:① P2P网贷平台寿命的城市差异较大,平台上线和退出主要集中在深圳、上海、北京及其周边城市。② 平台经验和较高的城市经济水平有利于平台存续和合规发展,但城市内部的风险传染值得关注;鼓励性政策有利于合规平台生存,但也会提升问题平台的非正常退出风险;较晚的进入时间会使平台生存受限。③ 集聚经济是影响P2P网贷平台生存的主要机制,企业的存续与企业进入市场的时空选择紧密相关。
汪明峰, 赵玉萍. 中国互联网金融企业生存的时空差异和影响因素——以P2P网贷行业为例[J]. 地理科学, 2021, 41(5): 747-758.
Wang Mingfeng, Zhao Yuping. Spatio-temporal Variations of Internet Finance Enterprises’ Survival and Their Influence Factors in China: A Case Study of P2P Lending[J]. SCIENTIA GEOGRAPHICA SINICA, 2021, 41(5): 747-758.
表3
解释变量Pearson相关性检验
变量 | lnPo | F | I | V | C | R | G | Pe | E | B |
注:括号内为P值;***、**和*分别表示在1%、5%与10%的显著性水平下显著;变量含义见表2;未含港澳台数据。 | ||||||||||
lnPo | 1.000 | |||||||||
F | 0.342*** | 1.000 | ||||||||
(0.000) | ||||||||||
I | −0.367*** | 0.073*** | 1.000 | |||||||
(0.000) | (0.000) | |||||||||
V | 0.180*** | 0.453*** | 0.516*** | 1.000 | ||||||
(0.000) | (0.000) | (0.000) | ||||||||
C | 0.180*** | 0.231*** | 0.401*** | 0.577*** | 1.000 | |||||
(0.000) | (0.000) | (0.000) | (0.000) | |||||||
R | 0.022* | −0.018 | −0.351*** | −0.336*** | −0.313*** | 1.000 | ||||
(0.085) | (0.154) | (0.000) | (0.000) | (0.000) | ||||||
G | 0.124*** | −0.019 | 0.257*** | 0.301*** | −0.284*** | −0.553*** | 1.000 | |||
(0.000) | (0.151) | (0.000) | (0.000) | (0.000) | (0.000) | |||||
Pe | 0.053*** | 0.342*** | 0.070*** | 0.359*** | −0.000 | −0.026** | 0.007 | 1.000 | ||
(0.000) | (0.000) | (0.000) | (0.000) | (0.999) | (0.048) | (0.600) | ||||
E | 0.099*** | 0.183*** | 0.049*** | 0.236*** | 0.086*** | 0.001 | −0.005 | 0.257*** | 1.000 | |
(0.000) | (0.000) | (0.000) | (0.000) | (0.000) | (0.950) | (0.710) | (0.000) | |||
B | −0.062*** | −0.108*** | −0.043*** | −0.039*** | 0.032** | 0.035*** | −0.041*** | 0.018 | −0.009 | 1.000 |
(0.000) | (0.000) | (0.000) | (0.003) | (0.014) | (0.006) | (0.002) | (0.165) | (0.505) |
表4
正常退出平台回归结果
变量 | 分类变量名称 | 模型(1) | 模型(2) | 模型(3) | 模型(4) |
注:括号内为 P 值;***、**和*分别表示在1%、5%与10%的显著性水平下显著;回归结果为部分分布风险比;空白为无此项;变量含义见表2;未含港澳台数据。 | |||||
lnPo | 0.896**(0.017) | 0.922*(0.092) | 0.943(0.224) | 0.967(0.479) | |
F | 0.719***(0.000) | 0.694***(0.000) | 0.671***(0.000) | 0.717***(0.000) | |
I | 0.994***(0.000) | 0.995***(0.000) | 0.995***(0.000) | 0.996***(0.000) | |
V | 0.999(0.525) | 0.999(0.704) | 0.999***(0.009) | 0.999***(0.002) | |
C | 1.030***(0.000) | 1.030***(0.000) | 1.031***(0.000) | 1.029***(0.000) | |
R | 中部 | 1.357***(0.000) | 1.308***(0.006) | 1.307***(0.006) | 1.315***(0.005) |
西部 | 1.711***(0.000) | 1.643***(0.000) | 1.677***(0.000) | 1.614***(0.000) | |
东北 | 1.092(0.622) | 1.228(0.440) | 1.224(0.455) | 1.203(0.498) | |
G | 放任 | 0.607(0.166) | 0.560(0.115) | 0.559(0.116) | |
轻微鼓励 | 0.705***(0.001) | 0.700***(0.001) | 0.727***(0.002) | ||
鼓励 | 0.721***(0.001) | 0.744***(0.004) | 0.773**(0.011) | ||
Pe | 2013—2015年 | 2.880***(0.000) | 2.597***(0.000) | ||
2015—2017年 | 3.987***(0.000) | 3.303***(0.000) | |||
E | 1.323***(0.000) | ||||
B | 银行系 | 13.403***(0.001) | |||
国资系 | 2.853*(0.053) | ||||
上市系 | 2.325(0.172) | ||||
民营系 | 12.275***(0.000) |
表5
非正常退出平台回归结果
变量 | 分类变量名称 | 模型(5) | 模型(6) | 模型(7) | 模型(8) |
注:回归结果为部分分布风险比;括号内为各部分分布风险比的P值;*、**和***分别表示在10%、5%与1%的显著性水平上显著;空白为无此项;银行系平台没有发生非正常退出事件;变量含义见表2;未含港澳台数据。 | |||||
lnPo | 0.742***(0.000) | 0.728***(0.000) | 0.740***(0.000) | 0.779***(0.000) | |
F | 0.770***(0.000) | 0.787***(0.000) | 0.768***(0.000) | 0.823***(0.002) | |
I | 0.995***(0.000) | 0.994***(0.000) | 0.995***(0.000) | 0.996***(0.000) | |
V | 0.999***(0.000) | 0.999***(0.000) | 0.998***(0.000) | 0.999***(0.000) | |
C | 1.013***(0.000) | 1.013***(0.000) | 1.014***(0.000) | 1.012***(0.000) | |
R | 中部 | 0.848**(0.036) | 0.920(0.426) | 0.913(0.389) | 0.915(0.393) |
西部 | 0.726***(0.001) | 0.785**(0.041) | 0.789**(0.048) | 0.790**(0.049) | |
东北 | 0.478***(0.002) | 0.554*(0.098) | 0.551*(0.093) | 0.590(0.135) | |
G | 放任 | 1.008(0.988) | 0.967(0.945) | 1.039(0.936) | |
轻微鼓励 | 1.181(0.196) | 1.177(0.209) | 1.182(0.195) | ||
鼓励 | 1.288**(0.030) | 1.291**(0.029) | 1.302**(0.024) | ||
Pe | 2013—2015年 | 1.287**(0.032) | 1.164(0.176) | ||
2015—2017年 | 1.656***(0.000) | 1.647***(0.000) | |||
E | 0.575***(0.000) | ||||
B | 国资系 | 2.401*(0.051) | |||
上市系 | 0.643(0.530) | ||||
民营系 | 7.124***(0.000) |
1 | Loubere N. China’s internet finance boom and tyrannies of inclusion[J]. China Perspectives, 2017, (4): 9-18. |
2 | 李继尊. 关于互联网金融的思考[J]. 管理世界, 2015, (7): 1-7,16. |
Li Jizun. My thought on the finance of network[J]. Management World, 2015, (7): 1-7,16. | |
3 | Experian. The economics of fraud: Mitigating risk amidst fast growth and innovation[R/OL]. https://fst.net.au/download/file/fid/9499, 2016-05-13. |
4 |
Lenz R. Peer-to-peer lending: Opportunities and risks[J]. European Journal of Risk Regulation, 2016, 7 (4): 688-700.
doi: 10.1017/S1867299X00010126 |
5 |
Wang J, Shen Y, Huang Y. Evaluating the regulatory scheme for internet finance in China: The case of peer-to-peer lending[J]. China Economic Journal, 2016, 9 (3): 272-287.
doi: 10.1080/17538963.2016.1214381 |
6 |
Guo F, Kong S T, Wang J. General patterns and regional disparity of internet finance development in China: Evidence from the Peking University internet finance development index[J]. China Economic Journal, 2016, 9 (3): 253-271.
doi: 10.1080/17538963.2016.1211383 |
7 | Tavassoli S, Jienwatcharamongkhol V. Survival of entrepreneurial firms: The role of agglomeration externalities[J]. Entrepreneurship & Regional Development, 2016, 28 (9-10): 746-767. |
8 | 彭宝玉, 蒋冰华, 魏雪燕, 等. 国外金融地理: 地理学和经济学研究对比[J]. 人文地理, 2016, 31 (2): 18-23. |
Peng Baoyu, Jiang Binghua, Wei Xueyan et al. The research contrast between geography and economics in international financial geography[J]. Human Geography, 2016, 31 (2): 18-23. | |
9 | 潘峰华, 徐晓红, 夏亚博, 等. 境外金融地理学研究进展及启示[J]. 地理科学进展, 2014, 33 (9): 1231-1240. |
Pan Fenghua, Xu Xiaohong, Xia Yabo et al. Progresses of financial geography and implications[J]. Progress in Geography, 2014, 33 (9): 1231-1240. | |
10 |
Mason C M, Harrison R T. The geography of venture capital investments in the UK[J]. Transactions of the Institute of British Geographers, 2002, 27 (4): 427-451.
doi: 10.1111/1475-5661.00064 |
11 | 王洋, 杨忍, 李强, 等. 广州市银行业的空间布局特征与模式[J]. 地理科学, 2016, 36 (5): 742-750. |
Wang Yang, Yang Ren, Li Qiang et al. The spatial layout features and patterns of banking industry in Guangzhou City, China[J]. Scientia Geographica Sinica, 2016, 36 (5): 742-750. | |
12 |
Leyshon A, French S, Signoretta P. Financial exclusion and the geography of bank and building society branch closure in Britain[J]. Transactions of the Institute of British Geographers, 2008, 33 (4): 447-465.
doi: 10.1111/j.1475-5661.2008.00323.x |
13 | 张国俊, 周春山, 许学强. 广东省市际金融排斥度综合评价及空间格局演变[J]. 地理科学, 2014, 34 (12): 1409-1417. |
Zhang Guojun, Zhou Chunshan, Xu Xueqiang. A comprehensive evaluation of the intercity financial exclusion in Guangzhou with an exploration of its spatial pattern[J]. Scientia Geographica Sinica, 2014, 34 (12): 1409-1417. | |
14 | Laulajainen R. Financial geography: A banker’s view[M]. London: Routledge, 2003: 328-381. |
15 |
Zhao S X B. Spatial restructuring of financial centers in mainland China and Hong Kong: A geography of finance perspective[J]. Urban Affairs Review, 2003, 38 (4): 535-571.
doi: 10.1177/1078087402250364 |
16 |
孟广文, 赵园园, 刘函, 等. 英属维尔京群岛离岸金融中心发展历程及启示[J]. 地理科学进展, 2017, 36 (6): 709-719.
doi: 10.18306/dlkxjz.2017.06.006 |
Meng Guangwen, Zhao Yuanyuan, Liu Han et al. Development and implications of the offshore financial center in the British Virgin Islands[J]. Progress in Geography, 2017, 36 (6): 709-719.
doi: 10.18306/dlkxjz.2017.06.006 |
|
17 | 汪明峰, 魏也华, 邱娟. 中国风险投资活动的空间集聚与城市网络[J]. 财经研究, 2014, 40 (4): 117-131. |
Wang Mingfeng, Wei Yehua, Qiu Juan. Spatial agglomeration and urban network of venture capital investment in China[J]. Journal of Finance and Economics, 2014, 40 (4): 117-131. | |
18 |
Burtch G, Ghose A, Wattal S. Cultural differences and geography as determinants of online prosocial lending[J]. MIS Quarterly, 2014, 38 (3): 773-794.
doi: 10.25300/MISQ/2014/38.3.07 |
19 | 李小建. 金融地理学理论视角及中国金融地理研究[J]. 经济地理, 2006, 26 (5): 721-725. |
Li Xiaojian. Spatial system of “urban agglomeration” in district development[J]. Economic Geography, 2006, 26 (5): 721-725. | |
20 | 周立, 王子明. 中国各地区金融发展与经济增长实证分析: 1978-2000[J]. 金融研究, 2002, (10): 1-13. |
Zhou Li, Wang Ziming. Empirical research of regional financial development and economic growth in China (1978-2000)[J]. Journal of Financial Research, 2002, (10): 1-13. | |
21 | 田霖. 互联网金融视域下金融地理学研究的新动态述评[J]. 经济地理, 2016, 36 (5): 9-16. |
Tian Lin. New developments of financial geography from the perspective of internet finance[J]. Economic Geography, 2016, 36 (5): 9-16. | |
22 |
Felkner J S, Townsend R M. The geographic concentration of enterprise in developing countries[J]. Quarterly Journal of Economics, 2011, 126 (4): 2005-2061.
doi: 10.1093/qje/qjr046 |
23 |
Wennberg K, Lindqvist G. The effect of clusters on the survival and performance of new firms[J]. Small Business Economics, 2010, 34 (3): 221-241.
doi: 10.1007/s11187-008-9123-0 |
24 |
Rosenthal S S, Strange W C. The determinants of agglomeration[J]. Journal of Urban Economics, 2001, 50 (2): 191-229.
doi: 10.1006/juec.2001.2230 |
25 | 吕卫国, 陈雯. 制造业企业区位选择与南京城市空间重构[J]. 地理学报, 2009, 64 (2): 142-152. |
Lv Weiguo, Chen Wen. Manufacturing industry enterprises location choice and the urban spatial restructuring in Nanjing[J]. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2009, 64 (2): 142-152. | |
26 | 李晓萍, 李平, 吕大国, 等. 经济集聚、选择效应与企业生产率[J]. 管理世界, 2015, (4): 25-37. |
Li Xiaoping, Li Ping, Lv Daguo et al. The economic agglomeration, the selection effect, and the firms’ productivity[J]. Management World, 2015, (4): 25-37. | |
27 |
Combes P P. Economic structure and local growth: France, 1984-1993[J]. Journal of Urban Economics, 2000, 47 (3): 329-355.
doi: 10.1006/juec.1999.2143 |
28 | 逯宇铎, 于娇, 刘海洋. 集聚经济是否影响了企业生命周期——基于企业退出行为视角[J]. 财经科学, 2013, (10): 60-69. |
Lu Yuduo, Yu Jiao, Liu Haiyang. Does cluster economy affect business life cycle—From the perspective of business withdrawal[J]. Finance & Economics, 2013, (10): 60-69. | |
29 | 汪明峰, 郗厚雪. 城市新兴技术产业的演化路径比较分析——以长三角物联网产业为例[J]. 地理研究, 2015, 34 (9): 1697-1707. |
Wang Mingfeng, Xi Houxue. The evolutionary paths of new emerging industry in cities: A case study of the Internet of things industry in the Yangtze River Delta region[J]. Geographical Research, 2015, 34 (9): 1697-1707. | |
30 | 刘志高, 尹贻梅, 孙静. 产业集群形成的演化经济地理学研究评述[J]. 地理科学进展, 2011, 30 (6): 652-657. |
Liu Zhigao, Yin Yimei, Sun Jing. A review of the research progress on industrial cluster formation from the perspective of evolutionary economic geography[J]. Progress in Geography, 2011, 30 (6): 652-657. | |
31 |
Essletzbichler J, Rigby D L. Exploring evolutionary economic geographies[J]. Journal of Economic Geography, 2007, 7 (5): 549-571.
doi: 10.1093/jeg/lbm022 |
32 | 贺灿飞. 区域产业发展演化: 路径依赖还是路径创造?[J]. 地理研究, 2018,37(7): 1253-1267. |
He Canfei. Regional industrial development and evolution: Path dependence or path creation? Geographical Research, 2018,37(7): 1253-1267. | |
33 |
Klepper S. Disagreements, spinoffs, and the evolution of Detroit as the capital of the U. S. automobile industry[J]. Management Science, 2007, 53 (4): 616-631.
doi: 10.1287/mnsc.1060.0683 |
34 | Boschma R A, Wenting R. The spatial evolution of the British automobile industry: Does location matter?[J]. Industrial & Corporate Change, 2007, 16 (2): 213-238. |
35 | 谢广营, 徐二明. P2P网贷企业寿命影响因素研究——来自718家企业的经验数据[J]. 统计与信息论坛, 2017, 32 (7): 60-66. |
Xie Guangying, Xu Erming. Determinants of the P2P lending company lifespan: Empirical evidence from 718 firms[J]. Statistics & Information Forum, 2017, 32 (7): 60-66. | |
36 | 汪涛, 郑婷予. 中国P2P网贷行业发展区域性差异的外部环境影响因素[J]. 技术经济, 2017, 36 (9): 101-108. |
Wang Tao, Zheng Tingyu. External environmental factors impacting regional difference in P-P lending industry in China[J]. Technology Economics, 2017, 36 (9): 101-108. | |
37 | 冯博, 叶绮文, 陈冬宇. P2P网络借贷研究进展及中国问题研究展望[J]. 管理科学学报, 2017, 20 (4): 113-126. |
Feng Bo, Ye Qiwen, Chen Dongyu. Review on P2P online lending and new research opportunities for China’s case[J]. Journal of Management Sciences in China, 2017, 20 (4): 113-126. | |
38 | 叶青, 李增泉, 徐伟航. P2P网络借贷平台的风险识别研究[J]. 会计研究, 2016, (6): 38-45, 95. |
Ye Qing, Li Zengquan, Xu Weihang. A risk detection study about online P2P lending platforms[J]. Accounting Research, 2016, (6): 38-45, 95. | |
39 | 魏丽萍, 陈德棉, 谢胜强. 谁动了“我”的绩效?——P2P平台成交量的驱动要素和影响机制研究[J]. 外国经济与管理, 2017, 39 (6): 114-124. |
Wei Liping, Chen Demian, Xie Shengqiang. Who moved “my” performance? Driving factors and effect mechanism for P2P trading volume[J]. Foreign Economics & Management, 2017, 39 (6): 114-124. | |
40 | 国家统计局. 中国城市统计年鉴[M]. 北京: 中国统计出版社, 2009-2017. |
National Bureau of Statistics of China. China city statistical yearbook. Beijing: China Statistics Press, 2009-2017. | |
41 | 卓莉, 张子彦, 雷小雨, 等. 基于蒙特卡洛生存分析探究东北森林物候的影响因素[J]. 地理学报, 2019, 74 (3): 490-503. |
Zhuo Li, Zhang Ziyan, Lei Xiaoyu et al. Monte Carlo survival analysis on the influencing factors of forest phenology in Northeast China[J]. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2019, 74 (3): 490-503. | |
42 | 陈家鼎. 生存分析与可靠性[M]. 北京: 北京大学出版社, 2005. |
Chen Jiading. Survival analysis & reliability. Beijing: Peking University Press, 2005. | |
43 |
Fine J P, Gray R J. A proportional hazards model for the subdistribution of a competing risk[J]. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 1999, 94 (446): 496-509.
doi: 10.1080/01621459.1999.10474144 |
44 | Paul D Allison. 事件史和生存分析: 第二版[M]. 范新光, 译. 上海: 格致出版社, 上海人民出版社, 2017. |
Allison P D. Event history and survival analysis (Second edition). Translated by Fan Guangxin. Shanghai: Gezhi Press, Shanghai People’s Publishing House, 2017. | |
45 | Fleming T R, Harrington D P. Counting processes and survival analysis[M]. Hoboken, New Jersey: John Wiley & Sons, 2005. |
46 | Xu D, Tang S, Guttman D. China’s campaign-style Internet finance governance: Causes, effects, and lessons learned for new information-based approaches to governance[J]. Computer Law & Security Review, 2019, 35 (1): 3-14. |
47 | Shu C, Simmons S A. Firm survival in traded industries: Does localization moderate the effects of founding team experience?[J]. Small Business Economics, 2017, 50 (3): 643-655. |
[1] | 孙斌栋, 丁嵩. 多中心空间结构经济绩效的研究进展及启示[J]. 地理科学, 2017, 37(1): 64-71. |
[2] | 王洋, 杨忍, 李强, 席文凯. 广州市银行业的空间布局特征与模式[J]. 地理科学, 2016, 36(5): 742-750. |
[3] | 陈良文, 杨开忠. 产业集聚、市场结构与生产率——基于中国省份制造业面板数据的实证研究[J]. 地理科学, 2008, 28(3): 325-330. |
|