黄河流域经济韧性时空演变与影响因素研究

doi:10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2022.04.001

地理科学 ›› 2022, Vol. 42 ›› Issue (4): 557-567.doi: 10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2022.04.001

• 黄河流域城市高质量发展专栏 • 下一篇

黄河流域经济韧性时空演变与影响因素研究

李连刚¹(), 张平宇²^,³, 程钰¹, 王成新¹^,^*()

1.山东师范大学地理与环境学院/山东省高校人地协调与绿色发展协同创新中心，山东济南 250358
2.中国科学院东北地理与农业生态研究所，吉林长春 130102
3.中国科学院大学资源与环境学院，北京 100049

收稿日期:2021-01-22 修回日期:2021-10-20 出版日期:2022-04-10 发布日期:2022-06-07
通讯作者: 王成新 E-mail:llg911208@163.com;404122665@qq.com
作者简介:李连刚（1991-），男，山东青岛人，讲师，主要从事区域经济韧性研究。E-mail: llg911208@163.com
基金资助:
国家自然科学基金项目(41571152);国家自然科学基金项目(42071162);国家自然科学基金项目(42101161);中国博士后科学基金项目(2020M672113);山东省博士后创新项目(202003021);山东省人文社会科学课题(2021-YYGL-29)

Spatio-temporal Evolution and Influencing Factors of Economic Resilience in the Yellow River Basin

Li Liangang¹(), Zhang Pingyu²^,³, Cheng Yu¹, Wang Chengxin¹^,^*()

1. College of Geography and Environment, Shandong Normal University, Collaborative Innovation Center of Human-Nature and Green Development in Universities of Shandong, Jinan 250358, Shandong, China
2. Northeast Institute of Geography and Agroecology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Changchun 130102, Jilin, China
3. College of Resources and Environment, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China

Received:2021-01-22 Revised:2021-10-20 Online:2022-04-10 Published:2022-06-07
Contact: Wang Chengxin E-mail:llg911208@163.com;404122665@qq.com
Supported by:
National Natural Science Foundation of China(41571152);National Natural Science Foundation of China(42071162);National Natural Science Foundation of China(42101161);China Postdoctoral Science Foundation(2020M672113);Shandong Postdoctoral Innovation Project(202003021);Shandong Humanities and Social Sciences Project(2021-YYGL-29)

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

黄河流域应对外部冲击的经济韧性能力是实现黄河流域生态保护和高质量发展国家战略的关键。以黄河流域91个地市单元为研究对象，构建经济韧性指数，分析了黄河流域面对2008年国际金融危机的经济韧性的时空变化特征，并探究其决定因素。结果发现：① 黄河流域面对国际金融危机的抵抗力随着时间的推移呈现出显著下降的态势，表现出显著的空间集聚特征，黄河流域中南部地区经济韧性水平相对较高；② 黄河流域经济韧性存在显著的正向空间自相关特征，在空间上表现出经济韧性水平高（低）的城市在空间上集聚分布，且空间自相关指数呈现出上升的趋势；③ 相关多样性、专业化、政府管控和第三产业比重均显著的促进黄河流域经济韧性水平提升，而当前经济发展模式不利于经济韧性水平的提升；④ 黄河流域经济韧性具有显著的空间溢出效应，高经济韧性水平城市的发展将促进周边城市经济韧性水平的提升。

关键词: 区域经济韧性, 空间集聚, 空间溢出, 产业结构, 黄河流域

Abstract:

The economic resilience of the Yellow River Basin in response to external shocks is the key to achieving the national strategy of ecological protection and high-quality development of the Yellow River Basin. We takes 91 cities in the Yellow River Basin as the research object and constructs an economic resilience index. The article analyzes the spatio-temporal characteristics of the economic resilience of the Yellow River Basin in the face of the 2008 international financial crisis, and explores its determinants. The results show that: 1) The resistance of the Yellow River Basin to the international financial crisis shows a significant decline over time, the economic resilience of the Yellow River Basin shows significant spatial agglomeration characteristics, and the economic resilience level of the south central part of the Yellow River Basin is relatively high; 2) There is a significant positive spatial autocorrelation in the economic resilience of the Yellow River Basin, which shows that cities with high (low) level of economic resilience are clustered in space, and the spatial autocorrelation index shows an upward trend; 3) Related variety, specialization, government control and the proportion of tertiary industry significantly promote the improvement of economic resilience in the Yellow River Basin, while the current economic development model is not conducive to the improvement of economic resilience; 4) The economic resilience of the Yellow River Basin has a significant spatial spillover effect, and the development of cities with high economic resilience level will promote the economic resilience of surrounding cities.

Key words: regional economic resilience, spatial agglomeration, spatial spillover, industrial structure, the Yellow River Basin

中图分类号:

K902

李连刚, 张平宇, 程钰, 王成新. 黄河流域经济韧性时空演变与影响因素研究[J]. 地理科学, 2022, 42(4): 557-567.

Li Liangang, Zhang Pingyu, Cheng Yu, Wang Chengxin. Spatio-temporal Evolution and Influencing Factors of Economic Resilience in the Yellow River Basin[J]. SCIENTIA GEOGRAPHICA SINICA, 2022, 42(4): 557-567.

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参考文献 35

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年份	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018
Moran’sI	0.207	0.346	0.249	0.265	0.346	0.361	0.371	0.363	0.332	0.353	0.373
P值	0.003	0.001	0.002	0.001	0.001	0.001	0.001	0.001	0.002	0.001	0.001

	OLS	SLM	SEM
注：^*P <0.01; ^ P<0.05;^* P<0.1；表内空白代表无此项。
常数	-0.03	-0.02	-0.03^***
经济发展	-0.21^***	-0.15^**	-0.18^**
相关多样性	0.12	0.12	0.19^**
非相关多样性	0.07	0.07	0.14
专业化	0.15	0.15	0.25^*
对外开放	0.01	0.01	0.01
第二产业比重	0.09	0.06	0.09
第三产业比重	0.10^*	0.09^*	0.10^*
政府管控	0.15^***	0.13^***	0.13^***
城市化	0.01	-0.01	-0.01
失业率	-0.01	-0.02	-0.02
ρ/λ		0.46^***	0.51^***
R²	0.47	0.57	0.57
Log-L	-6.83	-0.21	-1.06
AIC	36.66	24.43	24.12
SC	62.79	54.02	51.25
LMLAG	12.01^***
R-LMLAG	2.59
LMERR	9.50^***
R-LMERR	0.09

黄河流域经济韧性时空演变与影响因素研究

Spatio-temporal Evolution and Influencing Factors of Economic Resilience in the Yellow River Basin

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