地理科学 ›› 2022, Vol. 42 ›› Issue (4): 557-567.doi: 10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2022.04.001
• 黄河流域城市高质量发展专栏 • 下一篇
收稿日期:
2021-01-22
修回日期:
2021-10-20
出版日期:
2022-04-10
发布日期:
2022-06-07
通讯作者:
王成新
E-mail:llg911208@163.com;404122665@qq.com
作者简介:
李连刚(1991-),男,山东青岛人,讲师,主要从事区域经济韧性研究。E-mail: llg911208@163.com
基金资助:
Li Liangang1(), Zhang Pingyu2,3, Cheng Yu1, Wang Chengxin1,*(
)
Received:
2021-01-22
Revised:
2021-10-20
Online:
2022-04-10
Published:
2022-06-07
Contact:
Wang Chengxin
E-mail:llg911208@163.com;404122665@qq.com
Supported by:
摘要:
黄河流域应对外部冲击的经济韧性能力是实现黄河流域生态保护和高质量发展国家战略的关键。以黄河流域91个地市单元为研究对象,构建经济韧性指数,分析了黄河流域面对2008年国际金融危机的经济韧性的时空变化特征,并探究其决定因素。结果发现:① 黄河流域面对国际金融危机的抵抗力随着时间的推移呈现出显著下降的态势,表现出显著的空间集聚特征,黄河流域中南部地区经济韧性水平相对较高;② 黄河流域经济韧性存在显著的正向空间自相关特征,在空间上表现出经济韧性水平高(低)的城市在空间上集聚分布,且空间自相关指数呈现出上升的趋势;③ 相关多样性、专业化、政府管控和第三产业比重均显著的促进黄河流域经济韧性水平提升,而当前经济发展模式不利于经济韧性水平的提升;④ 黄河流域经济韧性具有显著的空间溢出效应,高经济韧性水平城市的发展将促进周边城市经济韧性水平的提升。
中图分类号:
李连刚, 张平宇, 程钰, 王成新. 黄河流域经济韧性时空演变与影响因素研究[J]. 地理科学, 2022, 42(4): 557-567.
Li Liangang, Zhang Pingyu, Cheng Yu, Wang Chengxin. Spatio-temporal Evolution and Influencing Factors of Economic Resilience in the Yellow River Basin[J]. SCIENTIA GEOGRAPHICA SINICA, 2022, 42(4): 557-567.
表2
黄河流域经济韧性回归结果
OLS | SLM | SEM | |
注:***P <0.01; ** P<0.05;* P<0.1;表内空白代表无此项。 | |||
常数 | -0.03 | -0.02 | -0.03*** |
经济发展 | -0.21*** | -0.15** | -0.18** |
相关多样性 | 0.12 | 0.12 | 0.19** |
非相关多样性 | 0.07 | 0.07 | 0.14 |
专业化 | 0.15 | 0.15 | 0.25* |
对外开放 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.01 |
第二产业比重 | 0.09 | 0.06 | 0.09 |
第三产业比重 | 0.10* | 0.09* | 0.10* |
政府管控 | 0.15*** | 0.13*** | 0.13*** |
城市化 | 0.01 | -0.01 | -0.01 |
失业率 | -0.01 | -0.02 | -0.02 |
ρ/λ | 0.46*** | 0.51*** | |
R2 | 0.47 | 0.57 | 0.57 |
Log-L | -6.83 | -0.21 | -1.06 |
AIC | 36.66 | 24.43 | 24.12 |
SC | 62.79 | 54.02 | 51.25 |
LMLAG | 12.01*** | ||
R-LMLAG | 2.59 | ||
LMERR | 9.50*** | ||
R-LMERR | 0.09 |
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