地理科学 ›› 2022, Vol. 42 ›› Issue (4): 720-729.doi: 10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2022.04.017
许斌1,2(), 毛旭锋1,*(
), 李永飞3, 谢贤健2, 鲍文4
收稿日期:
2021-04-01
修回日期:
2021-07-12
出版日期:
2022-04-10
发布日期:
2022-06-07
通讯作者:
毛旭锋
E-mail:xubin@njtc.edu.cn;maoxufeng@yeah.net
作者简介:
许斌(1984- ),男,贵州黔东人,博士研究生,讲师,研究方向为3S应用。E-mail: xubin@njtc.edu.cn
基金资助:
Xu Bin1,2(), Mao Xufeng1,*(
), Li Yongfei3, Xie Xianjian2, Bao Wen4
Received:
2021-04-01
Revised:
2021-07-12
Online:
2022-04-10
Published:
2022-06-07
Contact:
Mao Xufeng
E-mail:xubin@njtc.edu.cn;maoxufeng@yeah.net
Supported by:
摘要:
以县级行政单元 (县、县级市或区) 为研究单元,定量化川渝地区1450—1949年干旱等级,统计干旱发生年数,利用Matlab 8.3小波分析工具和ArcGIS 10.2 空间分析工具,探索干旱时间和空间变化特征。结果表明:① 500 a中有312 a为干旱年,每1.6 a发生1次,占比62.4%;早期(1450—1650年)干旱发生频率较高,中期(1650—1870年)降低,后期(1870—1949年)明显增高,存在200 a、100 a、65 a、30 a、10 a的周期;② 212个区县干旱等级以大旱为主,一般干旱次之,特大旱最少,其比例分别为50.1%、44.2%和5.7%;③ 空间上以局部干旱为主,范围为1~20个县的年份占了80.4%,其中低于5个县的年份约占56.0%;干旱频次自西向东显著增高,存在明显集聚效应,川西高原和川西南山地旱情较轻,沱江中游、嘉陵江中下游和长江沿岸等地较为严重;85%以上干旱集中于四川盆地;④ 干旱受太阳活动、地理位置、地形地貌、气候变化和土壤性质等自然因素控制,也受到历史时期人口分布和人类生产活动等人为条件影响。
中图分类号:
许斌, 毛旭锋, 李永飞, 谢贤健, 鲍文. 1450—1949年川渝地区干旱时空变化[J]. 地理科学, 2022, 42(4): 720-729.
Xu Bin, Mao Xufeng, Li Yongfei, Xie Xianjian, Bao Wen. Spatial-temporal Variation of Drought in Sichuan and Chongqing From 1450 to 1949[J]. SCIENTIA GEOGRAPHICA SINICA, 2022, 42(4): 720-729.
[1] | 张书余. 干旱气候学[M]. 北京: 气象出版社, 2008. |
Zhang Shuyu. Drought climatology. Beijing: China Meteorological Press, 2008. | |
[2] | 郑远长. 全球自然灾害概述[J]. 中国减灾, 2000, 10(1): 14-19. |
Zheng Yuanchang. Overview of global natural disasters. Disaster Reduction in China, 2000, 10(1): 14-19. | |
[3] |
Wilhite D A, Glantz M H. Understanding the drought phenomenon: The role of definitions[J]. Water International, 1985, 10(3): 111-120.
doi: 10.1080/02508068508686328 |
[4] | 范宝俊. 中国自然灾害与灾害管理[M]. 哈尔滨: 黑龙江教育出版社, 1998. |
Fan Baojun. Natural disasters and disaster management in China. Harbin: Heilongjiang Education Press, 1998. | |
[5] | 马宗晋. 中国重大自然灾害及减灾对策(总论)[M]. 北京: 科学出版社, 1994. |
Ma Zongjin. China’s major natural disasters and countermeasures for disaster reduction (general). Beijing: Science Press, 1994. | |
[6] | 李泽明, 陈皎, 董新宁. 重庆2011年和2006年夏季严重干旱及环流特征的对比分析[J]. 西南大学学报(自然科学版), 2014, 36(8): 1-10. |
Li Zeming, Chen Jiao, Dong Xinning. Comparison analysis for summer heavy drought and its circulation features in 2011/2006 in Chongqing. Journal of Southwest University (Natural Science Edition), 2014, 36(8): 1-10. | |
[7] | 李金建, 张菡, 王锐婷, 等. 基于湿润指数的四川盆地农业干旱时空变化特征[J]. 西南大学学报(自然科学版), 2014, 36(1): 129-136. |
Li Jinjian, Zhang Han, Wang Ruiting et al. Temporal and spatial variations of agricultural drought in Sichuan basin based on moisture index. Journal of Southwest University (Natural Science Edition), 2014, 36(1): 129-136. | |
[8] | 曾刚, 武英娇, 张顾炜, 等. 1990年以来重庆秋季年代际干旱及其可能成因[J]. 大气科学学报, 2015, 38(5): 620-632. |
Zeng Gang, Wu Yingjiao, Zhang Guwei et al. Interdecadal autumn drought in Chongqing and its possible cause since 1990. Transactions of Atmospheric Sciences, 2015, 38(5): 620-632. | |
[9] | 余航, 王龙, 文俊, 等. 云南省500年干旱灾害时空分布研究[J]. 干旱区资源与环境, 2014, 28(12): 38-44. |
Yu Hang, Wang Long, Wen Jun et al. Study on spatial and temporal distribution of drought disaster in 500 years in Yunnan Province. Journal of Arid Land Resources and Environment, 2014, 28(12): 38-44. | |
[10] | 李艳萍, 陈昌春, 张余庆, 等. 明代河南地区干旱灾害的时空特征分析[J]. 干旱区资源与环境, 2015, 29(5): 174-179. |
Li Yanping, Chen Changchun, Zhang Yuqing et al. Spatiotemporal characteristics of drought disasters in Henan Province in Ming Dynasty. Journal of Arid land Resources and Environment, 2015, 29(5): 174-179. | |
[11] | 张强, 姜彤, 吴宜进. ENSO事件对长江上游1470 —2003年旱涝灾害影响分析[J]. 冰川冻土, 2004, 26(6): 691-696. |
Zhang Qiang, Jiang Tong, Wu Yijin. Impact of ENSO events on flood/drought disaster of upper Yangtze River during 1470-2003. Journal of Glaciology and Geocryology, 2004, 26(6): 691-696. | |
[12] | 张艳梅. 清代四川旱灾时空分布研究[D]. 重庆: 西南大学, 2008. |
Zhang Yanmei. Study on distribution of temporal and spatial of drought about Sichuan in Qing dynasty. Chongqing: Southwest University, 2008. | |
[13] | 马强, 杨宵. 明清时期嘉陵江流域水旱灾害时空分布特征[J]. 地理研究, 2013, 32(12): 257-265. |
Ma Qiang, Yang Xiao. Spatial and temporal distributions of floods and droughts in Jialing River basin in the Ming and Qing dynasties. Geographical Research, 2013, 32(12): 257-265. | |
[14] | 张宏. 四川地理[M]. 北京: 北京师范大学出版社, 2016. |
Zhang Hong. Sichuan geographic. Beijing: Beijing Normal University Press, 2016. | |
[15] | 四川植被协作组. 四川植被[M]. 成都: 四川人民出版社, 1980. |
Sichuan Vegetation Cooperation Group. Sichuan vegetation. Chengdu: Sichuan People’s Publishing House, 1980. | |
[16] | 四川省统计局, 国家统计局四川调查总队. 四川统计年鉴2019[M]. 北京: 中国统计出版社, 2020. |
Statistical Bureau of Sichuan, NBS Survey Office in Sichuan. Sichuan statistical yearbook 2019. Beijing: China Statistic Press, 2020. | |
[17] | 重庆市统计局, 国家统计局重庆调查总队. 重庆统计年鉴2019[M]. 北京: 中国统计出版社, 2020. |
Chongqing Municipal Bureau of Statistics, NBS Survey Office in Chongqing. Chongqing statistical yearbook 2019. Beijing: China Statistic Press, 2020. | |
[18] | 四川省地方志编纂委员会. 四川省志——农业志[M]. 成都: 四川辞书出版社, 1996. |
Sichuan Local Chronicle Compilation Committee. Annals of Sichuan Province: Agricultural chronicles. Chengdu: Sichuan Lexicographical Press, 1996. | |
[19] | 四川省水利志编辑委员会. 四川省水利志(全六册)[M]. 成都: 四川省水利电力厅, 1990. |
Sichuan Local Chronicle Compilation Committee. Annals of Sichuan Province: Water conservancy chronicles. Chengdu: Sichuan Publishing House of Science & Technology, 1990. | |
[20] | 《成都水旱灾害志》编写组. 成都水旱灾害志[M]. 成都: 成都科技大学出版社, 1995. |
Compilation Group of the Chronicles of Floods and Droughts in Chengdu. Chronicles of floods and droughts in Chengdu. Chengdu: University of Science and Technology of Chengdu Press, 1995. | |
[21] | 四川省水利电力厅. 四川水旱灾害[M]. 北京: 科学出版社, 1996. |
Sichuan Provincial Water Resources Department. Flood and drought disasters in Sichuan. Beijing: Science Press, 1996. | |
[22] | 中央气象局气象科学研究院. 中国近五百年旱涝分布图集[M]. 北京: 地图出版社, 1981. |
Academy of Meteorological Sciences, China Meteorological Administration. Atlas of China’s drought and flood distribution in the past 500 years. Beijing: Sinomap Press, 1981. | |
[23] | 张德仁. 中国三千年气象记录总集: (2-4集)[M]. 南京: 凤凰出版社, 2004. |
Zhang Deren. Total records of meteorology in China in recent 3000 years (2-4). Nanjing: Phoenix Press, 2004. | |
[24] | 温克刚, 詹兆渝. 中国气象灾害大典·四川卷[M]. 北京: 气象出版社, 2006. |
Wen Kegang, Zhan Zhaoyu. China meteorological calamity thesaurus: Sichuan volume. Beijing: China Meteorological Press, 2006. | |
[25] | 温克刚, 马力. 中国气象灾害大典·重庆卷[M]. 北京: 气象出版社, 2008. |
Wen Kegang, Ma Li. China meteorological calamity thesaurus∙ Chongqing volume. Beijing: China Meteorological Press, 2008. | |
[26] | 姜世中. 黄河源区达日至玛曲段近50年径流量变化趋势分析[J]. 地理研究, 2008, 27(1): 221-228. |
Jiang Shizhong. Analysis on variety trend of runoff between Dari and Maqu in the headwater region of Yellow River in the past 50 years. Geographical Research, 2008, 27(1): 221-228. | |
[27] | 国家市场监督管理总局, 中国国家标准化管理委员会. GB/T 34306-2017干旱灾害等级[S]. 北京: 中国标准出版社, 2017. |
State Administration for Market Regulation of the People’s Republic of China, China National Standardization Administration Commission. GB / T 34306-2017 drought disaster grade. Beijing: China Standards Press, 2017. | |
[28] |
Qian Weihong, Lu Bo. Periodic oscillations in millennial global-mean temperature and their causes[J]. Chinese Science Bulletin, 2010, 55(35): 4052-4057.
doi: 10.1007/s11434-010-4204-2 |
[29] |
姚俊强, 刘志辉, 杨青, 等. 近130年来中亚干旱区典型流域气温变化及其影响因子[J]. 地理学报, 2014, 69(3): 291-302.
doi: 10.11821/dlxb201403001 |
Yao Junqiang, Liu Zhihui, Yang Qing et al. Temperature variability and its possible causes in the typical basins of the arid Central Asia in recent 130 years. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2014, 69(3): 291-302.
doi: 10.11821/dlxb201403001 |
|
[30] |
齐冬梅, 李跃清, 李英, 等. 夏季青藏高原东部大气热源变化及其对相邻区域气候的影响[J]. 干旱气象, 2010, 28(2): 113-120.
doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1006-7639.2010.02.001 |
Qi Dongmei, Li Yueqing, Li Ying et al. Variation of atmospheric heat sources over east of the Tibetan Plateau in summer and its influence on climate of surround region. Journal of Arid Meteorology, 2010, 28(2): 113-120.
doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1006-7639.2010.02.001 |
|
[31] | 杨勋林, 陈发虎, 袁道先, 等. 高分辨率石笋记录的三峡库区小冰期气候变化[J]. 地理科学, 2013, 33(5): 629-634. |
Yang Xunlin, Chen Fahu, Yuan Daoxian et al. Climate change during the Little Ice Age with high-resolution stalagmite record in the Three-gorger Reservoir Area. Scientia Geographica Sinica, 2013, 33(5): 629-634. | |
[32] | 张月明, 杨勋林, 黄帆, 等. 重庆丰都高分辨率石笋δ13C记录与AD1250—1750 a季风气候变化 西南大学学报(自然科学版) 2013, 35(3): 117-123. |
Zhang Yueming, Yang Xunlin, Huang Fan et al. A high-resolution stalagmite δ13C record from Shuiming cave over the past 500 years Journal of Southwest University (Natural Science Edition) 2013, 35(3): 117-123. | |
[33] | 陈文秀, 郝克俊, 田宏. 近100年四川气温变化的多时间尺度分析[J]. 成都气象学院学报, 1999(1): 3-5. |
Chen Wenxiu, Hao Kejun, Tian Hong. Multiple time scale analysis of surface temperature variation in Sichuan during last 100 years. Journal of Chengdu Institute of Meteorology, 1999(1): 3-5. | |
[34] | 张瑞, 杨勋林, 刘秀明, 等. 渝东南近100年石笋灰度变化及气候环境意义[J]. 生态学报, 2019, 39(16): 6098-6106. |
Zhang Rui, Yang Xunlin, Liu Xiuming et al. Changes of stalagmite grayscale in the last 100 years and significance of climate and environment in the southeast of Chongqing. Acta Ecologica Sinica, 2019, 39(16): 6098-6106. | |
[35] |
郝志新, 葛全胜, 郑景云, 等. 2006年重庆大旱的历史透视[J]. 地理研究, 2007, 26(4): 828-834.
doi: 10.3321/j.issn:1000-0585.2007.04.020 |
Hao Zhixin, Ge Quansheng, Zheng Jingyun et al. 2006 extreme drought event of Chongqing[J]. Geographical Research, 2007, 26(4): 828-834.
doi: 10.3321/j.issn:1000-0585.2007.04.020 |
|
[36] | 邵远坤, 沈桐立, 游泳, 等. 四川盆地近40年来的降水特征分析[J]. 西南大学学报(自然科学版), 2005, 27(6): 749-752. |
Shao Yuankun, Shen Tongli, You Yong et al. Precipitation features of Sichuan basin in the recent 40 decades. Journal of Southwest University (Natural Science Edition), 2005, 27(6): 749-752. | |
[37] | 庞轶舒, 马振峰, 杨淑群, 等. 盛夏高原季风指数的探讨及其对四川盆地降水的影响[J]. 高原气象, 2017, 36(4): 886-899. |
Pang Yishu, Ma Zhenfeng, Yang Shuqun et al. Discussion of plateau monsoon index and its impact on precipitation in Sichuan basin in midsummer. Plateau Meteorology, 2017, 36(4): 886-899. | |
[38] | 陈权亮, 倪长健, 万文龙. 川渝盆地夏季旱涝变化特征及成因分析[J]. 高原气象, 2010, 29(3): 587-594. |
Chen Quanliang, Ni Changjian, Wan Wenlong. Features of summer precipitation change of the Chuanyu basin and its relationship with large-scale circulation. Plateau Meteorology, 2010, 29(3): 587-594. | |
[39] | 廖光明, 延军平, 胡娜娜, 等. 四川盆地东部近50年降水与旱涝时间序列分析[J]. 长江流域资源与环境, 2012, 21(9): 1160-1166. |
Liao Guangming, Yan Junping, Hu Nana et al. Analysis of temporal series of precipitation and drought-flood about the recent 50 years in the east of Sichuan basin. Resources and Environment in the Yangtze Basin, 2012, 21(9): 1160-1166. | |
[40] |
李启权, 王昌全, 岳天祥, 等. 基于定性和定量辅助变量的土壤有机质空间分布预测——以四川三台县为例[J]. 地理科学进展, 2014, 33(2): 259-269.
doi: 10.11820/dlkxjz.2014.02.012 |
Li Qiquan, Wang Changquan, Yue Tianxiang et al. Predication of distribution of soil organic matter based on qualitative and quantitative auxiliary variables: A case study in Santai county in Sichuan province. Progress in Geography, 2014, 33(2): 259-269.
doi: 10.11820/dlkxjz.2014.02.012 |
|
[41] | 刘军, 谢德体, 魏朝富, 等. 四川主要土壤水分常数研究[J]. 西南大学学报(自然科学版), 1993(1): 48-51. |
Liu Jun, Xie Deti, Wei Chaofu et al. A study of moisture constants of the major soil groups in Sichuan. Journal of Southwest University (Natural Science Edition), 1993(1): 48-51. | |
[42] | 王改改, 吕家恪, 魏朝富. 四川盆地丘陵区土壤水分的动态及其随机模拟[J]. 中国农村水利水电, 2009(11): 22-26. |
Wang Gaigai, Lv Jiake, Wei Chaofu. Soil moisture dynamics and its stochastic simulation in hilly areas in Sichuan basin. China Rural Water and Hydropower, 2009(11): 22-26. | |
[43] | 肖杰, 郑国璋, 郭政昇, 等. 明清小冰期鼎盛期气候变化及其社会响应[J]. 干旱区资源与环境, 2018, 32(6): 79-84. |
Xiao Jie, Zheng Guozhang, Guo Zhengsheng et al. Climate change and social response during the heyday of the Little Ice Age in the Ming and Qing dynasties. Journal of Arid Land Resources and Environment, 2018, 32(6): 79-84. | |
[44] | 李世平. 四川人口史[M]. 成都: 四川大学出版社, 1987. |
Li Shiping. History of population in Sichuan. Chengdu: Sichuan University Press, 1987. | |
[45] | 陈世松. 大移民: “湖广填四川”故乡记忆[M]. 成都: 四川人民出版社, 2015. |
Chen Shisong. Immigration: " Immigration from Hunan & Hubei to Sichuan " the memory of hometown. Chengdu: Sichuan People’s Publishing House, 2015. | |
[46] | 郭声波. 元明清时代四川盆地的农田垦殖[J]. 中国历史地理论丛, 1988(4): 77-108. |
Guo Shengbo. Farmland reclamation of Sichuan basin in Yuan, Ming and Qing Dynasties. Journal of Chinese Historical Geography, 1988(4): 77-108. |
[1] | 马梓策, 孙鹏, 张强, 姚蕊. 基于MODIS数据的华北地区遥感干旱监测研究[J]. 地理科学, 2022, 42(1): 152-162. |
[2] | 郑殿元, 文琦, 黄晓军. 干旱风沙区农村多维贫困地域分异机制研究[J]. 地理科学, 2021, 41(1): 149-156. |
[3] | 张华, 徐存刚, 王浩. 2001−2018年西北地区植被变化对气象干旱的响应[J]. 地理科学, 2020, 40(6): 1029-1038. |
[4] | 李明, 葛晨昊, 邓宇莹, 王贵文, 柴旭荣. 黄土高原气象干旱和农业干旱特征及其相互关系研究[J]. 地理科学, 2020, 40(12): 2105-2114. |
[5] | 李明, 胡炜霞, 王贵文, 柴旭荣, 张莲芝. 基于Copula函数的中国东部季风区干旱风险研究[J]. 地理科学, 2019, 39(3): 506-515. |
[6] | 周侃, 樊杰, 王亚飞, 李九一. 干旱半干旱区水资源承载力评价及空间规划指引——以宁夏西海固地区为例[J]. 地理科学, 2019, 39(2): 232-241. |
[7] | 李屹凯, 张莉, 叶瑜, 陆昱君. 1876~1878年西北地区中西部干旱事件研究[J]. 地理科学, 2018, 38(5): 780-789. |
[8] | 余方琳, 翟石艳, 王铮, 宋根鑫, 李亚婷, 贺楠. 基于SPI的1960~2012年西南地区水稻生长季干旱时空特征分析[J]. 地理科学, 2018, 38(5): 808-817. |
[9] | 贾艳青, 张勃. 基于日SPEI的近55 a西南地区极端干旱事件时空演变特征[J]. 地理科学, 2018, 38(3): 474-483. |
[10] | 吴燕锋, 章光新. 松花江区气象水文干旱演变特征[J]. 地理科学, 2018, 38(10): 1731-1739. |
[11] | 文星跃, 黄艳娟, 黄成敏. 岷江上游河谷土壤发生的空间分异及环境意义[J]. 地理科学, 2017, 37(2): 266-273. |
[12] | 常婧, 惠争闯, 耿豪鹏, 胡小飞, 潘保田. 黑河中游现代孢粉传播过程研究[J]. 地理科学, 2017, 37(12): 1925-1932. |
[13] | 张玉虎, 向柳, 孙庆, 陈秋华. 贝叶斯框架的Copula季节水文干旱预报模型构建及应用[J]. 地理科学, 2016, 36(9): 1437-1444. |
[14] | 刘玉英, 李宇凡, 谢今范, 张红. 东北高空湿度变化特征及其与地面气温和降水的关系[J]. 地理科学, 2016, 36(4): 628-636. |
[15] | 顾西辉, 张强, 张生. 1961~2010年中国农业洪旱灾害时空特征、成因及影响[J]. 地理科学, 2016, 36(3): 439-447. |
|