1450—1949年川渝地区干旱时空变化

doi:10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2022.04.017

地理科学 ›› 2022, Vol. 42 ›› Issue (4): 720-729.doi: 10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2022.04.017

• 黄河流域城市高质量发展专栏 • 上一篇下一篇

1450—1949年川渝地区干旱时空变化

许斌¹^,²(), 毛旭锋¹^,^*(), 李永飞³, 谢贤健², 鲍文⁴

1.青海师范大学地理科学学院/高原科学与可持续发展研究院，青海西宁 810000
2.内江师范学院地理与资源科学学院，四川内江 641100
3.吉首大学旅游与管理工程学院，湖南张家界 427000
4.成都信息工程大学管理学院，四川成都 610255

收稿日期:2021-04-01 修回日期:2021-07-12 出版日期:2022-04-10 发布日期:2022-06-07
通讯作者: 毛旭锋 E-mail:xubin@njtc.edu.cn;maoxufeng@yeah.net
作者简介:许斌（1984- ），男，贵州黔东人，博士研究生，讲师，研究方向为3S应用。E-mail: xubin@njtc.edu.cn
基金资助:
国家自然科学基金项目(52070108);国家自然科学基金项目(51669028);国家自然科学基金项目(42067061);湖南省教育厅重点项目(20A400);气象灾害预测预警研究中心项目(ZHYJ16-YB04)

Spatial-temporal Variation of Drought in Sichuan and Chongqing From 1450 to 1949

Xu Bin¹^,²(), Mao Xufeng¹^,^*(), Li Yongfei³, Xie Xianjian², Bao Wen⁴

1. School of Geographic Sciences, Academy of Plateau Science and Sustainability, Qinghai Normal University, Xining 810000, Qinghai, China
2. School of Geography and Resource Science, Neijiang Normal University, Neijiang 641100, Sichuan, China
3. College of Tourism & Management Project, Jishou University, Zhangjiajie 427000, Hunan, China
4. School of Management, Chengdu University of Information Technology, Chengdu 610255, Sichuan, China

Received:2021-04-01 Revised:2021-07-12 Online:2022-04-10 Published:2022-06-07
Contact: Mao Xufeng E-mail:xubin@njtc.edu.cn;maoxufeng@yeah.net
Supported by:
National Natural Science Foundation of China(52070108);National Natural Science Foundation of China(51669028);National Natural Science Foundation of China(42067061);Key Project of Education Department of Hunan Province(20A400);Research Center for Meteorological Disaster Prediction and Emergency Management(ZHYJ16-YB04)

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

以县级行政单元 (县、县级市或区) 为研究单元，定量化川渝地区1450—1949年干旱等级，统计干旱发生年数，利用Matlab 8.3小波分析工具和ArcGIS 10.2 空间分析工具，探索干旱时间和空间变化特征。结果表明：① 500 a中有312 a为干旱年，每1.6 a发生1次，占比62.4%；早期（1450—1650年）干旱发生频率较高，中期（1650—1870年）降低，后期（1870—1949年）明显增高，存在200 a、100 a、65 a、30 a、10 a的周期；② 212个区县干旱等级以大旱为主，一般干旱次之，特大旱最少，其比例分别为50.1%、44.2%和5.7%；③ 空间上以局部干旱为主，范围为1~20个县的年份占了80.4%，其中低于5个县的年份约占56.0%；干旱频次自西向东显著增高，存在明显集聚效应，川西高原和川西南山地旱情较轻，沱江中游、嘉陵江中下游和长江沿岸等地较为严重；85%以上干旱集中于四川盆地；④ 干旱受太阳活动、地理位置、地形地貌、气候变化和土壤性质等自然因素控制，也受到历史时期人口分布和人类生产活动等人为条件影响。

关键词: 干旱, 致灾因素, 川渝地区

Abstract:

To explore the characteristics of spatial and temporal variation of drought in Sichuan and Chongqing during 1450 to 1949, employed the wavelet tools of Matlab (Version 8.3) and ArcGIS (Version 10.2) software to analyze the counter data of drought . The results showed that: 1) Drought occurred in 312 years during 1450-1949 A.D, while accounting for 62.4%, once every 1.6 years. The frequency of drought was relatively high in the early period (1450-1650), decreased in the middle period (1650-1870), and increased significantly in the later period (1870-1949), with a cycle of 200, 100, 65, 30 and 10 years. 2) Severer drought was the most common, followed by general drought, and extreme drought was the least, accounting for 50.1%, 44.2% and 5.7%, respectively in 212 statistical units. 3) Spatially, drought was mainly localized, with 80.38% in 1-20 counties, and 56.01% in less than 5 counties. The frequency of drought increased significantly from west to east with obviously agglomeration effect. The drought was relatively light in the western Sichuan Plateau and the southwest Sichuan Mountains region, and severer in the middle reaches of Tuojiang River, the middle and lower reaches of the Jialing River and the both sides of the Yangtze River. More than 85% of the drought was concentrated in Sichuan Basin. 4) Natural factors such as solar activity, geographical location, landform, climate change and soil properties are the main causes of disasters, while human conditions such as population distribution, human production activities and the detailed records are also influencing factors. This result can provide reference for the study of historical climate and the prediction of environmental change in Southwest China.

Key words: drought, disaster influencing factors, Sichuan and Chongqing

中图分类号:

P467

许斌, 毛旭锋, 李永飞, 谢贤健, 鲍文. 1450—1949年川渝地区干旱时空变化[J]. 地理科学, 2022, 42(4): 720-729.

Xu Bin, Mao Xufeng, Li Yongfei, Xie Xianjian, Bao Wen. Spatial-temporal Variation of Drought in Sichuan and Chongqing From 1450 to 1949[J]. SCIENTIA GEOGRAPHICA SINICA, 2022, 42(4): 720-729.

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等级	灾情	干旱类别	文献描述
1	一般干旱	单季旱、连季旱	旱，不雨、深井尽涸、田禾焦枯、旱荒、灾荒、岁荒、半收、民饥、人食薇蕨、民多四散、缓征^[22,24]
2	大旱	单季大旱、连季大旱、连岁旱	大旱，旱大荒、岁大歉、收成不及四成、大饥、米价腾贵、米一石价值银三两、野菜树皮具尽、道有饿殍、免税粮^[19,23]
3	特大旱	连岁大旱、连三季大旱、 3 a连旱	特大旱，全蜀荒旱、全邑无收、赤地千里、米价高昂、掘食白泥、人相食、饿殍载途、民多离散、城野半空、赈之^[20,23]

时段	1450—1549年	1550—1649年	1650—1749年	1750—1849年	1850—1949年
一般干旱/县次	333	201	91	289	1140
大旱/县次	362	488	91	284	1107
特大干旱/县次	52	74	1	9	128
干旱总县次	747	763	183	582	2375
一般干旱年/次	9	8	1	6	30
大旱年/次	3	3	0	2	11
特大旱年/次	0	1	0	0	2

时段	1450—1549年	1550—1649年	1650—1749年	1750—1849年	1850—1949年	1450—1949年
Moran’s I	0.793	0.788	0.410	0.646	0.849	0.881
方差	0.002	0.002	0.002	0.002	0.002	0.002
Z	18.601	18.513	9.836	15.225	19.897	20.637
P	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000

1450—1949年川渝地区干旱时空变化

Spatial-temporal Variation of Drought in Sichuan and Chongqing From 1450 to 1949

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受旱县数/个	1450—1549年	1550—1649年	1650—1749年	1750—1849年	1850—1949年	1450—1949年	500 a中所占比例/%
注：—表示没有统计。
最少	1	1	1	1	1	—	—
最多	93	122	51	91	120	—	—
1~5	29	29	38	46	24	166	53.21
6~10	4	6	5	14	15	44	14.10
10~20	4	2	2	8	12	28	8.97
20~50	9	6	0	6	26	47	15.06
>50	3	6	1	1	16	27	8.65

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