基于捕获−再捕获方法的城市旅游非正规就业群体规模测算——来自北京市的实证研究

doi:10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2022.07.011

地理科学 ›› 2022, Vol. 42 ›› Issue (7): 1239-1249.doi: 10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2022.07.011

基于捕获−再捕获方法的城市旅游非正规就业群体规模测算——来自北京市的实证研究

王金伟¹^,²^,³(), 王国权¹^,⁴, 张赛茵⁵^,^*(), 王欣¹^,³

1.北京第二外国语学院旅游科学学院，北京 100024
2.中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所，北京 100101
3.北京旅游发展研究基地，北京 100024
4.南开大学旅游与服务学院，天津 300350
5.首都经济贸易大学统计学院，北京 100070

收稿日期:2021-01-31 修回日期:2021-05-10 出版日期:2022-07-10 发布日期:2022-09-07
通讯作者: 张赛茵 E-mail:tourismer@aliyun.com;zhangsaiyin@cueb.edu.cn
作者简介:王金伟（1983−），男，四川绵阳人，博士后，副教授，主要从事旅游经济研究。E-mail: tourismer@aliyun.com
基金资助:
北京市教育委员会社科计划一般项目(SM202010031003);国家旅游局科研项目面上项目(17TABG014);国家自然科学基金青年项目(41701168)

Estimating Population Size of Informal Employment in Urban Tourism Based on Capture-mark-recapture Approach: A Case Study of Beijing

Wang Jinwei¹^,²^,³(), Wang Guoquan¹^,⁴, Zhang Saiyin⁵^,^*(), Wang Xin¹^,³

1. School of Tourism Sciences, Beijing International Studies University, Beijing 100024, China
2. Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, China
3. Research Center for Beijing Tourism Development, Beijing 100024, China
4. College of Tourism and Service Management, Nankai University, Tianjin 300350, China
5. College of Statistics, Capital University of Economics and Business, Beijing 100070, China

Received:2021-01-31 Revised:2021-05-10 Online:2022-07-10 Published:2022-09-07
Contact: Zhang Saiyin E-mail:tourismer@aliyun.com;zhangsaiyin@cueb.edu.cn
Supported by:
Social Science Plan Research Project of Beijing Municipal Education Commission(SM202010031003);Research Project of China National Tourism Administration(17TABG014);National Natural Science Foundation of China(41701168)

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

非正规就业是旅游就业体系中的重要组成部分，在推动城市旅游经济增长方面发挥着不可替代的作用。以故宫博物院、颐和园等北京10个典型景区为例，调查研究了城市旅游景区非正规就业者的群体特征，并探索性地将测量野生动物和敏感人群数量的“捕获–再捕获”及蒙特卡罗模拟方法引入研究，对该群体的规模进行了测算。研究发现：①城市景区旅游非正规就业群体多为低人力资本从业者，青壮年女性居多，以纪念品（土特产）商贩和导游人员为主，多来自就近地区。②北京10个典型城市景区的旅游非正规就业群体规模较小，大约有1 126人，这与严格的城市人口疏解和旅游业治理举措密切相关。③“捕获–再捕获”方法可以有效测量流动性大、隐蔽性强的旅游非正规就业者的群体规模，具有一定的科学性和可靠性。

关键词: 城市旅游, 非正规就业, 旅游就业, 捕获–再捕获模型, 规模测算

Abstract:

Tourism informal employment is an important part of the tourism employment system, which has become an important driving force to promote urban tourism economic growth. However, tourism informal employment could also generate some negative impacts on city management and the order of urban tourism market. To maximize the positive effect of tourism informal employment and to manage it effectively, it is necessary to figure out the scale and current situation of informal employment in the development of urban tourism. However, due to the characteristics of large fluidity, instability and concealment, the measurement of tourism informal employment has become a hard nut to crack for academia. Beijing, as a well-known city tourist destination, has attracted a large number of informal tourism employees along with the rapid development of urban tourism. Due to historical and socio-economic reasons, Beijing’s tourism informal employment has many problems to be solved. Therefore, taking ten typical scenic spots of Beijing as an example, this study investigated the group characteristics of informal employees in urban tourism, and innovatively introduced the capture-mark-recapture (CMR) approach, which was originally used to measure the population number of wild animals, into the scale measurement of informal employees in urban tourism. To ensure the effectiveness and feasibility of this method, the reliability and validity of the CMR and its statistical formula are evaluated by Monte Carlo Simulation with SAS software as a statistical analysis tool. The conclusions are as follows: 1) the human capital of informal employees in urban tourism scenic spots is relatively low, most of which are young and middle-aged women. They mainly work as souvenir (local specialty) traders and tour guides, most of which are from the nearby region, North China. 2) The overall scale of tourism informal employees in the ten typical scenic spots of Beijing is small (1126), compared with the overall number of employees in the tourism industry of Beijing. The urban tourism informal employees were widely distributed in the city, though. 3) CMR approach can effectively measure the scale of tourism informal employment population, which is scientific and reliable. Academically, by introducing the CMR approach into the scale measurement of tourism informal employees, this study effectively fills out the deficiency of measurement methods in this field. Practically, this study could provide scientific reference for the Beijing tourism authorities in terms of the measurement and management of tourism informal employment.

Key words: urban tourism, informal employment, tourism employment, Capture-mark-recapture (CMR), scale measurement

中图分类号:

F590

王金伟, 王国权, 张赛茵, 王欣. 基于捕获−再捕获方法的城市旅游非正规就业群体规模测算——来自北京市的实证研究[J]. 地理科学, 2022, 42(7): 1239-1249.

Wang Jinwei, Wang Guoquan, Zhang Saiyin, Wang Xin. Estimating Population Size of Informal Employment in Urban Tourism Based on Capture-mark-recapture Approach: A Case Study of Beijing[J]. SCIENTIA GEOGRAPHICA SINICA, 2022, 42(7): 1239-1249.

图/表 7

表1

表2

表3

表4

表5

图1

表6

参考文献 48

[1]	李云. 习近平就业优先战略思想述论[J]. 求实, 2017(11): 14-23. doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1007-8487.2017.11.002
	Li Yun. Review on Xi Jinping’s strategic thought of giving priority to employment. Truth Seeking, 2017(11): 14-23. doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1007-8487.2017.11.002
[2]	邢祖哥, 黄耿志, 薛德升. 中国非正规经济发展格局及与城镇化的关系——基于多指标多原因(MIMIC)模型的研究[J]. 地理研究, 2022, 41(3): 597-615. doi: 10.11821/dlyj020210125
	Xing Zuge, Huang Gengzhi, Xue Desheng. Examining the development of informal economy and its relationship with the urbanization process in China using the MIMIC model. Geographical Research, 2022, 41(3): 597-615. doi: 10.11821/dlyj020210125
[3]	黄耿志, 薛德升, 张虹鸥. 中国城市非正规就业的发展特征与城市化效应[J]. 地理研究, 2016, 35(3): 442-454. doi: 10.11821/dlyj201603004
	Huang Gengzhi, Xue Desheng, Zhang Hongou. The development of urban informal employment and its effect on urbanization in China. Geographical Research, 2016, 35(3): 442-454. doi: 10.11821/dlyj201603004
[4]	薛进军, 高文书. 中国城镇非正规就业: 规模、特征和收入差距[J]. 经济社会体制比较, 2012(6): 59-69.
	Xue Jinjun, Gao Wenshu. Informal employment in urban China: Its size, features and earning disparity. Comparative Economic and Social Systems, 2012(6): 59-69.
[5]	张彦. 对上海市人口非正规就业规模的估算与分析[J]. 中国人口科学, 2009(3): 40-47,111.
	Zhang Yan. Estimating and analyzing the scale of informal employment in Shanghai. Chinese Journal of Population Science, 2009(3): 40-47,111.
[6]	沈晓栋, 李金昌. 中国非正规部门指数的设计与测算——兼论非正规部门与经济增长关系[J]. 商业经济与管理, 2011(8): 83-89. doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1000-2154.2011.08.011
	Shen Xiaodong, Li Jinchang. The design and measurement of informal sector index in China: The relation between informal sector and economic growth. Commercial Economy and Management, 2011(8): 83-89. doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1000-2154.2011.08.011
[7]	曲燕. 非正规就业概念及其测算方法探析[J]. 重庆文理学院学报(社会科学版), 2018, 37(3): 103-108.
	Qu Yan. Analysis on the concept and measurement of informal employment. Journal of Chongqing University of Arts and Sciences (Social Sciences Edition), 2018, 37(3): 103-108.
[8]	曲燕. 非正规就业规模估算及其特征——以重庆为例[J]. 开发研究, 2019(1): 132-138.
	Qu Yan. The estimation of informal employment scale and its characteristics: Taking Chongqing as an example. Research on Development, 2019(1): 132-138.
[9]	姚宇. 中国非正规就业规模与现状研究[J]. 中国劳动经济学, 2006, 3(2): 85-109.
	Yao Yu. Study on the scale and current situation of informal employment in China. China Labor Economics, 2006, 3(2): 85-109.
[10]	黄彬云. 城镇非正规服务就业规模的估计[J]. 统计与决策, 2014(23): 37-40.
	Huang Binyun. Estimates of the size of informal service employment in urban areas. Statistics and Decision, 2014(23): 37-40.
[11]	彭希哲, 姚宇. 厘清非正规就业概念, 推动非正规就业发展[J]. 社会科学, 2004(7): 63-72. doi: 10.3969/j.issn.0257-5833.2004.07.010
	Peng Xizhe, Yao Yu. Clarify the concept of informal employment, promote the development of informal employment. Journal of Social Sciences, 2004(7): 63-72. doi: 10.3969/j.issn.0257-5833.2004.07.010
[12]	宋子千. 旅游业究竟对国民经济有多大贡献?[J]. 旅游导刊, 2017, 1(2): 32-43,122.
	Song Ziqian. How to recognize the tourism’s contribution to national economy?. Tourism and Hospitality Prospects, 2017, 1(2): 32-43,122.
[13]	孙盼盼, 赖丽君. 地方政府教育投入、旅游业人力资本与旅游产业结构优化升级——基于简单中介效应模型和有调节的中介效应模型的对比检验[J]. 旅游导刊, 2021, 5(2): 35-65.
	Sun Panpan, Lai Lijun. Local government investment in education, tourism human capital, and optimization and upgrading of the tourism industry structure: A comparative test based on the simple mediation model and the moderated mediation model. Tourism and Hospitality Prospects, 2021, 5(2): 35-65.
[14]	梁增贤, 保继刚. 大型主题公园发展与城市居民就业——对华侨城主题公园就业分配的考察[J]. 旅游学刊, 2014, 29(8): 62-69. doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1002-5006.2014.08.006
	Liang Zengxian, Bao Jigang. Can urban theme parks increase employment opportunities for local residents: An empirical study of OCT Parks, China. Tourism Tribune, 2014, 29(8): 62-69. doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1002-5006.2014.08.006
[15]	郭为, 曹苏婉. 琴瑟和鸣抑或相互掣肘? 旅游业中家庭配偶的就业与创业——基于CGSS 2010——2015数据的实证研究[J]. 旅游导刊, 2020, 4(2): 26-46.
	Guo Wei, Cao Suwan. Are the lute and psaltery in harmony? Employment and entrepreneurship of family spouses in tourism: An empirical research based on CGSS 2010-2015. Tourism and Hospitality Prospects, 2020, 4(2): 26-46.
[16]	梁增贤, 赵昭, 肖莹瑶, 等. 旅游非正规就业者收入水平的影响因素[J]. 旅游论坛, 2016, 9(5): 62-69.
	Liang Zengxian, Zhao Zhao, Xiao Yingyao et al. The influencing factors on income level of informal tourism employees. Tourism Forum, 2016, 9(5): 62-69.
[17]	郭为, 厉新建, 许珂. 被忽视的真实力量: 旅游非正规就业及其拉动效应[J]. 旅游学刊, 2014, 29(8): 70-79. doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1002-5006.2014.08.007
	Guo Wei, Li Xinjian, Xu Ke. The neglected true power: Tourism informal employment and its pull effects. Tourism Tribune, 2014, 29(8): 70-79. doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1002-5006.2014.08.007
[18]	梁增贤, 黎结仪, 文彤. 城市旅游非正规就业者生活质量感知研究——以广州为例[J]. 旅游学刊, 2015, 30(9): 72-81. doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1002-5006.2015.09.008
	Liang Zengxian, Li Jieyi, Wen Tong. Tourism and quality of life perceptions among urban tourism informal employees: A case study of Guangzhou city. Tourism Tribune, 2015, 30(9): 72-81. doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1002-5006.2015.09.008
[19]	郭为, 黄卫东, 寇敏, 等. 通往富裕的道路: 藏民的旅游非正规就业——对青海湖周边藏民就业情况的调研[J]. 旅游导刊, 2017, 1(3): 39-50,121. doi: 10.12054/lydk.bisu.20
	Guo Wei, Huang Weidong, Kou Min et al. The road to prosperity: Tourism informal employment of the Tibetan—Research on the employment situation of the Tibetan surrounding Qinghai Lake. Tourism and Hospitality Prospects, 2017, 1(3): 39-50,121. doi: 10.12054/lydk.bisu.20
[20]	余志远, 赵星会, 梁春媚. 社区旅游参与视角下民族村寨旅游地居民地方感生成研究[J]. 旅游导刊, 2021, 5(1): 23-42.
	Yu Zhiyuan, Zhao Xinghui, Liang Chunmei. The formation of residents’ sense of place in ethnic villages from the perspective of community tourism participation. Tourism and Hospitality Prospects, 2021, 5(1): 23-42.
[21]	林敏慧, 黄琳玉, 郑嘉静, 等. 城市旅游空间的非正规就业集聚研究——以广州为例[J]. 旅游科学, 2019, 33(4): 13-31.
	Lin Minhui, Huang Linyu, Zheng Jiajing et al. A study on informal employment agglomeration in urban tourism space: A case study of Guangzhou. Tourism Science, 2019, 33(4): 13-31.
[22]	石培华. 中国旅游业对就业贡献的数量测算与分析[J]. 旅游学刊, 2003, 18(6): 45-51. doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1002-5006.2003.06.009
	Shi Peihua. On the evaluation of regional development of China’s tourism employment. Tourism Tribune, 2003, 18(6): 45-51. doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1002-5006.2003.06.009
[23]	邹忠红, 郭为, 廖淑凤. 就业歧视、社会认同与旅游非正规就业群体[J]. 旅游论坛, 2016, 9(1): 55-62.
	Zou Zhonghong, Guo Wei, Liao Shufeng. Employment discrimination, social identity and tourism informal employment groups. Tourism Forum, 2016, 9(1): 55-62.
[24]	Yotsumoto Y. Formalization of urban poor vendors and their contribution to tourism development in Manila, Philippines[J]. International Journal of Japanese Sociology, 2013, 22(1): 128-142. doi: 10.1111/ijjs.12000
[25]	苏静, 陆林. 非正式部门(informal sector): 旅游研究中不可忽视的领域[J]. 旅游学刊, 2009, 24(1): 71-76. doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1002-5006.2009.01.018
	Su Jing, Lu Lin. Informal sector: A domain that cannot be ignored. Tourism Tribune, 2009, 24(1): 71-76. doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1002-5006.2009.01.018
[26]	梁增贤, 保继刚. 主题公园周边非正规就业管制的堵与疏——以北京欢乐谷为例[J]. 城市问题, 2012, 31(4): 67-72.
	Liang Zengxian, Bao Jigang. Regulation on the informal employment around the theme park: A case study of Beijing Happy Valley. Urban Problems, 2012, 31(4): 67-72.
[27]	郭为, 秦宇, 王丽. 旅游非正规就业的群体特征与行业满意度——以青岛和烟台的旅游非正规部门调查为例[J]. 旅游学刊, 2012, 27(7): 81-90.
	Guo Wei, Qin Li, Wang Li. On the group features of tourism informal employment and industrial satisfaction: A case study of Qingdao and Yantai. Tourism Tribune, 2012, 27(7): 81-90.
[28]	郭为, 秦宇, 黄卫东, 等. 旅游产业融合、新业态与非正规就业增长: 一个基于经验与概念模型的实证分析[J]. 旅游学刊, 2017, 32(6): 14-27. doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1002-5006.2017.06.007
	Guo Wei, Qin Yu, Huang Weidong et al. The convergence of tourism industries, new tourism formats and the growth of informal employment: A positive analysis based on industries experience and conceptual model. Tourism Tribune, 2017, 32(6): 14-27. doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1002-5006.2017.06.007
[29]	北京旅游学会. 北京旅游绿皮书: 北京旅游发展报告(2019)[M]. 北京: 社会科学文献出版社, 2019.
	Beijing Tourism Society. Green book of Beijing tourism & culture: Beijing tourism development report (2019) . Beijing: Social Sciences Literature Press, 2019.
[30]	中华人民共和国文化和旅游部. 中国文化文物和旅游统计年鉴2020[M]. 北京: 国家图书馆出版社, 2020.
	Ministry of Culture and Tourism of the People’s Republic of China. 2020 China statistical yearbook of culture, cultural heritage, and tourism . Beijing: National Library of China Publishing House, 2020.
[31]	胡伟江, 周安寿. 捕获–标记–再捕获法的历史、理论及应用发展[J]. 中国工业医学杂志, 2005, 18(1): 50-51. doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1002-221X.2005.01.023
	Hu Weijiang, Zhou Anshou. The history, theory and application development of capture-mark-recapture method. Chinese Journal of Industrial Medicine, 2005, 18(1): 50-51. doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1002-221X.2005.01.023
[32]	刘力平. 捕获再捕获与捕获移出模型的概念、方法和新进展[J]. 数学进展, 2004, 33(5): 527-539. doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1000-0917.2004.05.002
	Liu Liping. Introduction to the concepts, methodologies and new developments of capture-recapture models. Advances in Mathematics, 2004, 33(5): 527-539. doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1000-0917.2004.05.002
[33]	杨少春. 分层三来源获取再获取法在艾兹病高危人群基数估计中的应用[D]. 苏州: 苏州大学, 2016.
	Yang Shaochun. The application of stratified five sources of Capture-Mark-Recapture Method on estimating the population size of AIDS high-risk groups. Suzhou: Soochow University, 2016.
[34]	International Working Group for Disease Monitoring and Forecasting. Capture-recapture and multiple-record systems estimation I: History and theoretical development[J]. American Journal of Epidemiology, 1995, 142(10): 1047-1058.
[35]	梁玉成, 李蔓莉. 在华B省非法外籍劳工人口规模的测算——一项移民社会学的本土化尝试[J]. 社会学评论, 2019, 7(6): 31-48.
	Liang Yucheng, Li Manli. Estimation of the population size of undocumented guest worker in B province of China: A localization attempt of immigration sociology. Sociological Review of China, 2019, 7(6): 31-48.
[36]	Bishop Y, Fienberg S, Holland P. 离散多元分析理论与实践[M]. 张尧庭, 译. 北京: 中国统计出版社, 1998: 288-307.
	Bishop Y, Fienberg S, Holland P. Discrete multivariate analysis theory and practice. Translated by Zhang Yaoting. Beijing: China Statistics Press, 1998: 288-307.
[37]	傅颖. 艾滋病高危人群基数调查估计三来源CMR法的统计方法及应用[D]. 苏州: 苏州大学, 2015.
	Fu Ying. Capture-Mark-Recapture method and its application on estimating the population size of AIDS high risk groups. Suzhou: Soochow University, 2015.
[38]	江海峰. MCS在概率论与数理统计教学中的应用研究[J]. 数理统计与管理, 2008, 27(4): 740-747.
	Jiang Haifeng. The applying research of MCS on the teaching of probability and mathematic statistic. Application of Statistics and Management, 2008, 27(4): 740-747.
[39]	宗跃光, 王莉, 曲秀丽. 基于蒙特卡罗模拟法的北京地区非典时空变化特征[J]. 地理研究, 2004, 23(6): 815-824. doi: 10.1093/ije/29.1.168
	Zong Yueguang, Wang Li, Qu Xiuli. Monte-Carlo simulation based approach for the study of SARS’s spatial-temporal scenarios in Beijing. Geographical Research, 2004, 23(6): 815-824. doi: 10.1093/ije/29.1.168
[40]	杨帆. 蒙特卡罗模拟法在抗微生物药物药动和药效学研究中的应用[J]. 抗感染药学, 2010, 7(1): 15-18. doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1672-7878.2010.01.004
	Yang Fan. Study on application of Monte Carlo Simulation in optimization of antimicrobial dosage regimens. Anti-infection Pharmacy, 2010, 7(1): 15-18. doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1672-7878.2010.01.004
[41]	耿国柱. 基于复杂抽样下艾滋病高危人群基数三来源CMR法调查估计的统计方法及应用[D]. 苏州: 苏州大学, 2018.
	Geng Guozhu. Estimating the sizes of AIDS high-risk population using the three-source Capture-Mark-Recapture methods with complex sampling techniques: Statistical methodology and applications. Suzhou: Soochow University, 2018.
[42]	Cukier J, Wall G. Informal tourism employment: Vendors in Bali, Indonesia[J]. Tourism Management, 1994, 15(6): 464-467. doi: 10.1016/0261-5177(94)90067-1
[43]	黄耿志, 薛德升, 谢妍翰. 非正规就业: 女性人力资本积累的一种方式——以广州芳村茶叶市场茶艺表演业为例[J]. 地理研究, 2011, 30(4): 699-708.
	Huang Gengzhi, Xue Desheng, Xie Yanhan. Role of the informal employment, a way of human capital accumulation for female labors: A case study of tea ceremony sector in Fangcun Tea Market in Guangzhou. Geographical Research, 2011, 30(4): 699-708.
[44]	梁增贤, 谢春红. 旅游非正规就业: 职业发展的末端还是通道[J]. 旅游学刊, 2016, 31(1): 102-110. doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1002-5006.2016.01.015
	Liang Zengxian, Xie Chunhong. Informal tourism employment: The end to a career or a channel for career development?. Tourism Tribune, 2016, 31(1): 102-110. doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1002-5006.2016.01.015
[45]	郭为, 许珂, 廖淑凤. 旅游自我就业现状及其影响因素的实证分析——对青岛旅游自我就业者的调查[J]. 旅游科学, 2016, 30(4): 14-29.
	Guo Wei, Xu Ke, Liao Shufeng. The positive study on the status and causes of tourism self-employment: The investigations to the self-employment in Qingdao. Tourism Science, 2016, 30(4): 14-29.
[46]	张延吉, 张磊, 吴凌燕. 流动商贩的空间分布特征及与正规商业的分布关系——基于距离测度方法的数量研究[J]. 地理学报, 2017, 72(4): 618-632. doi: 10.11821/dlxb201704005
	Zhang Yanji, Zhang Lei, Wu Lingyan. Spatial distribution of street vending and its spatial relationship with formal commerce: Quantitative research using distance-based methods. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2017, 72(4): 618-632. doi: 10.11821/dlxb201704005
[47]	王颖, 段霞, 吴康. 城市“腾笼换鸟”产业转型升级的困境与出路——基于北京市的调查研究[J]. 地理科学, 2020, 40(5): 786-792.
	Wang Ying, Duan Xia, Wu Kang. The dilemma and outlet of the industry transformation and upgrading of the city’s ‘Vacating Cage to Change Birds’: Based on the investigation and study in Beijing. Scientia Geographica Sinica, 2020, 40(5): 786-792.
[48]	胡之群. “非法一日游”治理研究[N]. 中国市场监管报, 2018-07-05(3).
	Hu Zhiqun. Research on the governance of “illegal one-day tour”. China Market Regulation News, 2018-07-05(3).

		第二次捕获		合计
		出现	不出现	合计
注：N为区域内野生动物的数目；x₁₊为第一次捕获数量；x₊₁为第二次捕获数量；“—”表示无此项数据。
第一次捕获	出现	x₁₁	x₁₂	x₁₊
第一次捕获	不出现	x₂₁	—
合计		x₊₁		N

		c来源
		是		否
		b来源		b来源
		是	否	是	否
注： a来源为景区景点；b来源为旅游购物场所；c来源为旅游交通；x₂₂₂为缺失数据。
a来源	是	x₁₁₁	x₁₂₁	x₁₁₂	x₁₂₂
a来源	否	x₂₁₁	x₂₂₁	x₂₁₂	x₂₂₂

属性	分类	频数	比例/%	属性	分类	频数	比例/%
注：“来源地”中各地区所包含的省份分别为：华北地区（京津冀晋蒙）、东北地区（辽吉黑）、华东地区（沪苏浙皖闽赣鲁）、华中地区（豫鄂湘）、华南地区（粤桂琼）、西南地区（渝川黔滇藏）、西北地区（陕甘青宁新）、港澳台地区（港澳台）。
性别	男	251	47.6	年龄	＜18	5	0.9
性别	女	276	52.4		18~30	148	28.1
受教育程度	初中及以下	130	24.7		31~40	136	25.8
	高中/中专	169	32.1		41~50	138	26.2
	大专	81	15.4		51~60	70	13.3
	本科及以上	147	27.9		＞60	30	5.7
来源地	华北地区	305	57.9	就业类型	导游人员	109	20.7
	东北地区	37	7.0		纪念品/土特产商贩	131	24.9
	华东地区	65	12.3		旅游司机	54	10.2
	华中地区	62	11.8		旅游食宿服务提供者	76	14.4
	华南地区	13	2.5		旅游门票售卖者	36	6.8
	西南地区	19	3.6		其他	121	23.0
	西北地区	26	4.9
	港澳台地区	0	0

		c来源
		是		否
		b来源		b来源
		是	否	是	否
注：a来源代表“景区景点”，b来源代表“旅游购物场所”，c来源代表“旅游交通”；“—”表示无此项数据。
a来源	是	81	36	65	146
a来源	否	6	29	30	—

样本	$ \hat N $	Var	95% LL	95% UL	状态
注：由于篇幅限制，仅罗列了模拟结果的前20个样本； $ \hat N $ 表示N的估计，Var表示方差，95% LL表示95%置信区间下限，95% UL表示95%置信区间上限。
1	3629	139729.6568	397	1862	P>0.05
2	12301	108885.2287	440	1734	P>0.05
3	10220	628794.7148	396	3505	P>0.05
4	5154	616946.5878	231	3310	P>0.05
5	3821	470692.3176	259	2948	P>0.05
6	5940	409965.7978	243	2753	P>0.05
7	2716	251086.6601	378	2342	P>0.05
8	5139	82409.1316	390	1516	P>0.05
9	11647	83828.1421	464	1599	P>0.05
10	7995	1465054.1900	122	4867	P>0.05
11	4453	135890.7010	300	1745	P>0.05
12	6328	171576.2600	375	1999	P>0.05
13	10231	66636.7267	406	1418	P>0.05
14	18978	116284.7887	436	1773	P>0.05
15	4267	314782.8010	305	2505	P>0.05
16	11104	310779.8905	363	2549	P>0.05
17	11681	1042515.7440	67	4069	P>0.05
18	2801	190706.4740	405	2117	P>0.05
19	5007	35653.9418	442	1182	P>0.05
20	5262	139729.6568	397	1862	P>0.05

基于捕获−再捕获方法的城市旅游非正规就业群体规模测算——来自北京市的实证研究

Estimating Population Size of Informal Employment in Urban Tourism Based on Capture-mark-recapture Approach: A Case Study of Beijing

RichHTML

PDF (PC)

赞

可视化

摘要/Abstract

引用本文

使用本文

图/表 7

参考文献 48

相关文章 6

Metrics

本文评价

推荐阅读 0

状态	频率	百分比/%	累积频数	累积百分比/%
P<0.05	5	5.00	5	5
P>0.05	95	95.00	100	100

[1]	李维维, 陈田, 马晓龙. 西安城市旅游休闲业态空间热点特征及形成机制[J]. 地理科学, 2020, 40(3): 437-446.
[2]	郭建科, 王绍博, 李博, 彭飞, 王丹丹. 哈大高铁对东北城市旅游经济联系的空间影响[J]. 地理科学, 2016, 36(4): 521-529.
[3]	杨兴柱, 顾朝林, 王群, 卢松. 南京市内部旅游客流空间测度与模拟[J]. 地理科学, 2011, 31(7): 802-809.
[4]	保继刚, 甘萌雨. 改革开放以来中国城市旅游目的地地位变化及因素分析[J]. 地理科学, 2004, 24(3): 365-371.
[5]	吴必虎. 大城市环城游憩带(ReBAM)研究——以上海市为例[J]. 地理科学, 2001, 21(4): 354-359.
[6]	彭华. 试论经济中心型城市旅游的商务主导模式——以汕头市为例[J]. 地理科学, 1999, 19(2): 140-146.