回流农民工预期购房区位选择及影响因素——以河南省45村为例

doi:10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2022.09.009

地理科学 ›› 2022, Vol. 42 ›› Issue (9): 1600-1608.doi: 10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2022.09.009

回流农民工预期购房区位选择及影响因素——以河南省45村为例

郭雅琪¹(), 高更和¹^,²^,³(), 王玉婵¹, 张明思¹

1.河南财经政法大学资源与环境学院，河南郑州 450046
2.河南省城乡空间数据挖掘院士工作站，河南郑州 450046
3.城乡协调发展河南省协同创新中心，河南郑州 450046

收稿日期:2021-09-08 修回日期:2022-01-12 接受日期:2022-07-04 出版日期:2022-09-10 发布日期:2022-11-14
通讯作者: 高更和 E-mail:923963184@qq.com;gaogenghe@163.com
作者简介:郭雅琪（1997−），女，山西长治人，硕士，主要从事农区发展研究。E-mail: 923963184@qq.com
基金资助:
国家自然科学基金项目(41771190);国家自然科学基金项目(41901153);国家自然科学基金项目(42001337)

Location Choice and Influencing Factors of Expected Apartment Purchase for Returned Migrant Workers: Case Study of 45 Villages in Henan Province

Guo Yaqi¹(), Gao Genghe¹^,²^,³(), Wang Yuchan¹, Zhang Mingsi¹

1. School of Resources and Environment, Henan University of Economics and Law, Zhengzhou 450046, Henan, China
2. Academician Laboratory for Urban and Rural Spatial Data Mining of Henan Province, Zhengzhou 450046, Henan, China
3. Collaborative Innovation Center of Urban-Rural Coordinated Development of Henan Province, Zhengzhou 450046, Henan, China

Received:2021-09-08 Revised:2022-01-12 Accepted:2022-07-04 Online:2022-09-10 Published:2022-11-14
Contact: Gao Genghe E-mail:923963184@qq.com;gaogenghe@163.com
Supported by:
National Natural Science Foundation of China(41771190);National Natural Science Foundation of China(41901153);National Natural Science Foundation of China(42001337)

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

基于河南省45村1072份田野调查数据，采用描述统计分析和多水平多元Logistic回归分析方法，探讨回流农民工的预期购房区位和影响因素。研究发现：中心地层级对回流农民工预期购房区位选择具有重要影响，但影响强度与回流者年龄相关，新生代回流者偏向于较高层级中心地，而第一代回流者则青睐于低层级中心地。整体上，户籍所在地县城为回流农民工预期购房区位的首选区位，其次为地级市主城区和村庄，集镇和省城较少。个体特征、资金积累、成婚是影响预期购房区位选择的核心因素，村庄地理环境对预期购房区位选择具有重要影响。回流农民工具有较高的县城和城市购房居住预期，未来将是新型城镇化，尤其是就地城镇化的重要力量，应当稳定和降低城镇房价，以实现回流农民工真正的城镇融入。

关键词: 农民工, 回流, 预期购房区位, 就地城镇化, 河南省

Abstract:

The location of expected apartment purchase of returned migrant workers reflects the future apartment purchase and residence expectations, and has an important impact on the development of local urbanization. Based on 1072 field survey data from 45 villages in Henan Province, descriptive statistical analysis and Multi-level Logistic Regression Analysis were used to explore the location and influencing factors of apartment purchase of returned migrant workers. It is found that the central location level has an important impact on the location choice of the expected apartment purchase of the returned migrant workers, but the intensity of the impact is related to the age of the returned migrant workers. The new generation of returned migrant workers prefers higher-level central places, while the first-generation prefer lower-level ones. On the whole, the county seat of household registration is the preferred location for returned migrant workers to purchase apartments, followed by the main urban areas and villages of prefecture-level cities, and fewer market towns and provincial capitals. Individual characteristics, capital accumulation, and marriage are the core factors that affect the location selection of expected apartment purchases, and the geographical environment of the village has an important influence on the location selection of expected apartment purchases. In each model, gender, age, length of work, marriage, skills, family economic status, type of return area, type of former work site, and village per capita net income, return ratio and terrain type reached significant levels. Returned migrant workers have high expectations of apartment purchase and residence in counties and cities. In the future, they will be an important force for new urbanization, especially in-situ urbanization. Urban apartment prices should be stabilized and lowered to realize the true urban integration of returning migrant workers.

Key words: migrant workers, return, location of expected apartment purchase, in-situ urbanization, Henan Province

中图分类号:

F323.6

郭雅琪, 高更和, 王玉婵, 张明思. 回流农民工预期购房区位选择及影响因素——以河南省45村为例[J]. 地理科学, 2022, 42(9): 1600-1608.

Guo Yaqi, Gao Genghe, Wang Yuchan, Zhang Mingsi. Location Choice and Influencing Factors of Expected Apartment Purchase for Returned Migrant Workers: Case Study of 45 Villages in Henan Province[J]. SCIENTIA GEOGRAPHICA SINICA, 2022, 42(9): 1600-1608.

图/表 6

表1

表2

图1

表3

表4

模型运算结果

因子	模型1			模型2			模型3
因子	B	Sig.	exp(B)	B	Sig.	exp(B)	B	Sig.	exp(B)
注：① 模型1、2、3分别为城市、县城、集镇模型，参考类别为村庄；因为是社会地理研究，显著性水平放宽到0.1。② 各因子比较对象，性别为女；婚否为否；技能为无；本村经济地位为差；回流地域类型为省内回流；前务工地类型为村庄；地形类型为平原。③ ^*、^、^*为P< 0.01、P< 0.05、P< 0.1。
性别	−0.369	0.284	0.691	−0.610^**	0.034	0.543	−0.465	0.283	0.628
年龄	−0.061^***	0.000	0.941	−0.049^***	0.000	0.952	−0.036^*	0.082	0.965
工龄	0.031	0.151	1.032	0.047^***	0.008	1.048	0.045^*	0.090	1.046
婚否	−1.255^**	0.034	0.285	−0.918^*	0.095	0.399	−1.255^*	0.078	0.285
技能	1.164^***	0.000	3.203	0.468^*	0.084	1.597	1.096^**	0.011	2.993
家庭人口总数	0.063	0.548	1.065	0.020	0.818	1.020	−0.070	0.616	0.933
抚养比	0.196	0.371	1.217	0.021	0.910	1.021	0.194	0.501	1.214
本村经济地位=好	1.268	0.120	3.553	0.435	0.506	1.545	−1.429	0.274	0.239
本村经济地位=中	1.821^***	0.000	6.177	0.710^**	0.046	2.034	0.528	0.382	1.696
耕地数量	−0.045	0.542	0.956	−0.020	0.734	0.980	−0.108	0.263	0.898
回流地域类型	0.268	0.434	1.307	0.448	0.108	1.566	1.022^**	0.026	2.778
前务工地类型=城区	−0.225	0.724	0.799	−0.429	0.390	0.651	−1.411^**	0.042	0.244
前务工地类型=县镇	−0.641	0.348	0.527	−0.523	0.327	0.593	−1.109	0.131	0.330
前企业务工时间	−0.012	0.813	0.988	−0.034	0.390	0.967	−0.021	0.756	0.980
回流时间	−0.026	0.507	0.974	−0.025	0.410	0.975	−0.052	0.355	0.949
务工地数	−0.026	0.628	0.975	−0.032	0.447	0.969	0.006	0.934	1.006
村农民人均纯收入	0.001	0.969	1.000	−0.001	0.592	1.000	0.001^*	0.080	1.000
回流比	3.308^*	0.095	27.333	2.001	0.205	7.396	0.575	0.774	1.776
地形类型=山区	0.760	0.473	2.138	1.228	0.151	3.416	1.360	0.144	3.897
地形类型=丘陵	−0.369	0.684	0.691	0.892	0.172	2.440	2.293^***	0.002	9.902

表4

表5

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区位	已购房者		未购房者（预期区位）
区位	数量/人	占比/%	数量/人	占比/%
注：− 表示无数据（因调查内容为购房）。
县城	189	63.85	674	62.87
集镇	58	19.59	60	5.60
本村	−	−	125	11.66
地级市	44	14.86	171	15.95
省城	5	1.69	42	3.92
总计	296	100	1072	100

因素	因子	取值	说明	均值	标准差
注：本村经济地位按家庭人均年收入标准划分，好（＞1万元）、中（0.3~1.0万元）、差（＜0.3万元）。
个人	性别	男1，女0	哑变量，受访者的性别	0.674	0.469
	年龄	实际值/岁	受访者的实际年龄	39.140	12.495
	工龄	实际值/a	受访者外出务工的年限	15.757	9.626
	婚否	已婚1，其他0	哑变量，受访者的婚姻状况	0.840	0. 367
	技能	有1，无0	哑变量，受访者是否具有劳动技能	0.571	0.496
家庭	家庭人口总数	实际值/人	受访者家庭总人数	5.013	1.516
	抚养比	实际值	被扶养人口/劳动力人口	0.868	0.683
	本村经济地位	差1，中2，好3	哑变量，受访者在本村中的经济地位	1.965	0.373
	耕地数量	实际值/hm²	家庭高质量耕地数量	3.539	2.409
务工	回流地域类型	省外1，省内0	哑变量，从省外回流还是省内回流	0.729	0.445
	前务工地类型	城区1，县镇2，村庄3	哑变量，回流前最后一次务工区位	2.645	0.601
	前企业务工时间	实际值/a	受访者回流前在原企业务工年限（最近一次）	2.934	3.163
	回流时间	实际值/a	务工者回流时间长短	4.297	4.184
	务工地数	实际值/个	受访者10 a来曾经务工地数	3.496	2.859
社区	村农民人均纯收入	实际值/（元/a）	所在村庄农民人均纯收入	6226.230	5912.590
	回流比	实际值	村庄回流人数/务工人数	0.261	0.153
	地形类型	平原1，丘陵2，山地3	哑变量，受访者家乡的地形	1.346	0.667

模型	估算	标准误差	Z	显著性P	95% 置信区间
模型	估算	标准误差	Z	显著性P	下限	上限
注：模型1、2、3分别为城市模型、县城模型、集镇模型，参考类别为村庄；协方差结构为方差成分。
模型1	2.555	0.799	3.196	0.001	1.384	4.718
模型2	1.485	0.447	3.324	0.001	0.823	2.678
模型3	1.200	0.652	1.839	0.011	0.413	3.482

回流农民工预期购房区位选择及影响因素——以河南省45村为例

Location Choice and Influencing Factors of Expected Apartment Purchase for Returned Migrant Workers: Case Study of 45 Villages in Henan Province

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预期购房区位	≤20岁/ 人	21~40岁/ 人	41~60岁/ 人	＞60岁/ 人	总计/ 人
本村	0	36	78	11	125
集镇	2	30	27	1	60
县城	29	333	286	26	674
城市	11	121	78	3	213
总计	42	520	469	41	1072

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