基于2003~2015年中国256个地级市面板数据,对城市中高低技能劳动力耦合协调度进行衡量,并就扩大低技能劳动力规模对城市收入水平的影响进行了分析。主要结论为：① 过去10 a间,中国市级层面的高低技能劳动力耦合协调度总体上升,但上升幅度存在显著的区域间差异;② 七大国土区域内部的高低技能劳动力耦合协调度差异不断扩大,表明城市间高低技能劳动力流动正在加速;③ SLM和SEM模型均表明,地市级层面的低技能劳动力比重、城市收入水平和城市规模三者正相关,说明城市经济规模越大,扩大其低技能劳动力比重,越有助于提升城市总体收入水平。
China has been entered the new period of urbanization. In order to investigate the role of skill complementarity in this process, firstly, the coupling coordination degree of high-low skilled labor force in 285 prefecture level cities in 2003-2012 was measured, selecting ‘information transmission, software and information technology service’‘financial service’‘wholesale and retail trade industry’ and ‘accommodation and catering industry’ as main representative industries. Then, the effect of expanding the scale of low-skilled labor force on worker’s income analyzed, both on national level and regional level. Finally, the effects of several kinds of public services are also been discussed. The three main findings were as followed. Firstly, the coupling coordination degree of high-low skilled labor force at prefecture level was generally increased in the past decade, while varied across regions greatly. In descending order of improvement degree, the 7 main national regions can be sorted as followed: northwestern (0.427), southwestern (0.353), eastern (0.346), middle (0.253), southern (0.192), northern (0.190), northeastern (0.143) China. This may be related to the intra-regional difference in industrial structure. For example, in the period been investigated, the eastern China experienced increasing labor force cost, which leaded to a back-flow of labor force from the eastern to the western areas. Secondly, the standard error of coupling coordination degree of cities within 7 main national regions was increased, which implied an accelerated flow of labor force in these regions. Especially, the value in the eastern China increased from 0.367 to 0.410, which may be related to economic development periods, while the value in southwestern China decreased from 0.410 to 0.377, in the northeastern China the value increased from 0.365 up to 0.453, which may also be reflection of its economic situation.Thirdly, percentage of low-skilled labor force, urban income level and urban size were positively related, which showed that the larger the city was, the greater positive effect would be expanding low-skilled labor force scale on urban income. This finding may suggest that, in current period of urbanization in China, expanding the population of low-skilled labor force in middle and large cities can be beneficial for increasing of urban wage level.
基于敏感性-稳定性-响应3维要素构建指标体系,运用熵值法和ARIMA-BP组合预测模型研究中国人海经济系统环境适应性的演化及预警。结果表明：① 2001~2016年中国人海经济系统环境适应性呈稳定上升态势,总体集中于中警状态,期间经历了“人海环境系统比较优势阶段→耦合协调阶段→人海经济系统比较优势阶段”的双螺旋适应过程,预计2017~2020年再次进入相互契合的轻警状态;② 16 a间中国人海经济系统环境适应性波动存在上升期短-衰退期长现象,预计未来4 a人海经济系统环境适应性在经济下行和生态约束背景下的速率不容乐观;③ 权衡人海经济系统和人海环境系统的关系,追求总体效益最大化,延长适应性周期波动中扩张期活动,差别化和灵活性的适应行为是未来主要排警对策。
Constructing environmental adaptability index system of human-sea economic system based on adaptability factors of sensitivity, stability and response. The entropy method was used to measure the environmental adaptability of human-sea economic system from 2001 to 2016. Combined with ARIMA-BP combined forecasting model, this article forecasts the environmental adaptability of the Chinese human-sea economic system from 2017 to 2020 and makes a detailed analysis of the light display mechanism. The results show that: 1) The environmental adaptability of the Chinese human-sea economic system continued to increase from 2001 to 2016, the warning degree rose from serious alert to slight alert and the indicator lamp turned from orange lamp to blue lamp, and 70% of the years in the medium alert. The environmental adaptability evolutionary process of human-sea economic system is a trade-off between human-sea economic system and the human-sea environment system, which experienced a comparative advantage phase of human-sea environment system→coupling and coordination stage→the comparative advantage phase of human-sea economic system. It is estimated that it will re-enter the highly coordinated phase of slight alert state from 2017 to 2020. 2) From 2001 to 2016, there was a short rise period and a long decline in the environmental adaptability of the Chinese human-sea economic system. It is estimated that the rate of environmental adaptability fluctuation of the Chinese human-sea economic system will not be optimistic in the context of economic downturn and ecological constraints from 2017 to 2020. 3) The ARIMA-BP combination forecasting model has a good simulation effect, and it is feasible to apply it to the environmental adaptability pre-warning study of the human-sea economic system. 4) The environmental adaptability evolutionary process of human-sea economic system is unique and dynamic, thus, it is the main policing strategy for the future to weigh the relationship between the human-sea economic system and the human-sea environment system in pursuit of maximizing the overall efficiency and extending the expansion period of adaptive cyclical fluctuations, and to develop a differentiated and flexible adaptation action policy.
通过多因素综合评价法从物流水平、金融水平、信息及电子商务水平和港口城市开放水平4个方面对35个规模以上港口建立大宗商品交易市场的适宜度进行了测评,根据测评结果选出20个适宜建立大宗商品交易市场的港口。再使用重力P-中值模型测算出港口大宗商品交易市场适合建立的规模和类型。结果表明： 沿海港口在发展港口大宗商品交易市场方面更具优势。 港口大宗商品交易市场的空间分布呈现出“区域性聚集”的特点,主要集中在环渤海、长江三角洲和珠江三角洲地区。 每种类型的港口大宗商品交易市场的分布呈现分散状态,这更有利于交易市场为全国大宗商品的供需双方提供服务。
By way of the multi-factor comprehensive evaluation method, the suitability of establishing bulk commodity trading markets in 35 ports above the designated size is evaluated from 4 aspects such as levels of logistics, finance, information and e-commerce, and port city opening-up, the results of which are used to select 20 ports proper for establishing bulk commodity trading markets. Then the gravity p-median model is used to calculate the appropriate size and type for ports to set up the bulk commodity trading market. The results show that: 1) Coastal ports have more advantages in developing the port bulk commodity trading market. 2) The spatial distribution of the port bulk commodity trading markets is characterized by "regional aggregation", mainly concentrated in the areas of Bohai Rim, the Yangtze River Delta, and the Pearl River Delta. 3) The distribution of every type of port bulk commodity trading market presents a decentralized state, which is more favorable for a trading market to provide services required by nationwide supplying and demanding sides of bulk commodities.
基于37个中国航空企业的航班大数据,选取对外联系度、异（同）配性系数、层次分析、优势生态位分析等方法对中国航空客运网络组织模式进行分析。研究发现：① 中国航空网络发育整体趋于成熟,已形成明显的层次性和核心-边缘结构,航空企业的航空网络均蕴藏位序-规模规律,依据其机场节点、航线和航班数量可划分为6个层级;② 依据企业视角与网络规模、层次性与同配性/异配性等指标的综合度量,中国航空企业的网络组织模式可划分为核心培育阶段、核心竞争阶段、过渡阶段与稳定增长阶段4种类型;③ 航空企业的航空网络包括核心-边缘同配性网络和核心-边缘异配性网络,企业间竞争焦点主要表现为“核心”的竞争;④ 结合航空客运网络组织模式的判定,当前中国航空网络存在两条收敛规律：层次性收敛与同配性/异配性收敛;⑤ 实力强、规模大的航空企业在全国通航城市的比例分布均匀,具有较高生态位;实力弱、规模小的航空企业在全国通航城市的分布具有区域性且比例不均,生态位较低。为优化航空网络结构、避免企业恶性竞争,中国不同等级的航空企业一方面需结合自身发展阶段不断优化网络组织模式,寻求与企业等级相适应的生态优势位;另一方面要加强合作,避免航线饱和问题,提高整个航空网络的韧性和运营效率。
Based on big data of flights of 37 aviation enterprises in China (data of Hongkang,Macau and Taiwan are exluded), using external linkage degree, assortativity /disassortativity index, hierarchical analysis and dominant niche analysis, the spatial organization mode and competition mechanism of China air passenger transport network were studied in this paper. Findings are as follows: 1) China’s domestic aviation network has developed to a relatively mature level where obvious hierarchy and core-periphery structure are formed, all aviation enterprises could be divided into 6 hierarchies based on the number of nodes, routes and the number of flights. 2) From the aviation enterprise perspective, network scale, hierarchy and assortativity/disassortativity as indexes, organization mode (stage of development) of aviation enterprise in China could be divided into 4 stages including core cultivation stage, core competition stage, transition stage and steady growth stage. 3) Most of aviation enterprises’ aviation network are core-periphery and assortative/disassortative whose competition focuses on ‘core competition’. 4) Referring to the judgement method of aviation network’s organization mode, there are two convergence laws in China aviation network namely hierarchical convergence andassortative/disassortative convergence. 5) Aviation enterprise with strong strength and large scale has high niche and a uniform distribution proportion in navigable cities. In contrast, aviation enterprise with weak strength and small scale has a low niche which leads to regional and uneven distribution in navigable cities. In order to optimize the structure of aviation network and avoid the malignant competition, aviation enterprises need to take actions. On the one hand, aviation enterprises have to optimize the organization mode according to distinctive features of different stages of development and explore the dominant niche which is adapted to the grade of enterprises. On the other hand, aviation enterprises need enhance the cooperation with each other for avoiding saturation of airlines and improving the whole aviation network’s resilience and efficiency.
2015年12月,中国航运业两大巨头中国远洋运输（集团）总公司（简称中远集团）与中国海运（集团）总公司（简称中海集团）启动重组。以企业官方网站发布的集装箱航运周期表为主干数据,基于复杂网络方法, 利用Gephi和ArcGIS软件分析平台,对重组背景下两企业航运网络空间格局变动特点进行定量刻画,并从航运网络的幅员经济和枢纽经济2个维度,评价2016年重组后的中国远洋海运集团有限公司（简称中远海运集团）集装箱航运网络的整合效应。研究发现：① 2016年中远海运集团航运网络中的港口数与2015年中远集团、中海集团航运网络相比,服务节点明显增加,港口之间的航线服务覆盖范围扩张,新的航运联系拓展,整体航运网络运输服务线路延长;② 航运网络整合过程中,传统市场如东南亚、地中海、北美东海岸航区以及新兴市场如非洲西岸、南美东海岸等航区的港口枢纽性强化明显;具有良好区位条件的港口,中转能力强化、枢纽性更加突出,而一些高度同质化的港口航线资源被整合优化;③ 港口的区位条件、企业市场扩展策略、企业原有航线设置的同质化程度等是航运网络整合中呈现不同特点的主要原因。
China Ocean Shipping Group and China Shipping Group, as the leading shipping enterprises in China’s shipping industry have started reorganization in 2015. Using the historical shipping data published on the official websites of the two enterprises, this study quantitatively characterized the spatial pattern of the enterprises’ shipping network by complex network method using Gephi and ArcGIS; an evaluated the impact of integrated China Ocean Shipping (Group) Company (COSCO) Shipping’s shipping network in 2016, based on two dimensions of the network economic and hub economic. The results showed that: 1) The total number of service node and anchored ports of COSCO Shipping increased significantly as compared to 2015. In addition, the covered ports were expanded and new links were introduced. 2) In 2016 , COSCO Shipping strengthen the hub capacity in different navigation areas, such as the traditional markets of Southeast Asia, the Mediterranean, East North-American , emerging markets of West Africa, East South-America hub strengthened significantly. Ports with good location conditions have stronger transit capacity, while the resources of some highly homogeneous hub ports have been integrated and optimized. 3) The change of shipping network integration port can be affected by many factors, including local conditions of ports, strategy of market expansion, strategy for port selection (terminal operation), and homogenization degree of original shipping network.
运用GIS空间分析方法测度高铁对东北城市旅游交通可达性的影响,进而分析高铁网络化下东北城市旅游市场出现的新特征、新变化。研究发现：① 高铁极大提升了东北城市旅游交通可达性整体水平,可达性空间格局呈现明显的“高铁廊道效应”。网络化形成进程中,可达性空间格局变化由主干道运行期的“极化特征”向支线完善期的“均衡特征”转变,东北“全域式旅游”发展格局开始形成;② 主干道形成期,高铁以“虹吸效应”为主导,加剧了东北旅游市场发展的不均衡,促进哈大旅游经济带形成;支线完善期,高铁以“扩散效应”为主导,均衡式发展格局开始凸显;③ 高铁推动了东北城市“同城化”发展进程,市内游、周边游模式将发生改变,省际游、跨地区游模式将逐步盛行。
The gradual improvement of the feeder network makes the rapid transportation network of northeast basically form. This article uses GIS spatial analysis method to measure the influence of high-speed rail on accessibility of urban tourism traffic in Northeast China. Then, it analyzes the new characteristics and changes of the city tourism market under the high-speed rail network in Northeast China. Results found that: 1) High speed rail has greatly improved the accessibility of tourist traffic in cities of Northeast China, and the accessibility of space has obvious "high speed corridor effect". In the process of network formation, the change of accessibility spatial pattern has changed from the polarization characteristic of main road operation period to the balanced characteristics of the perfect line of the branch line, and the development pattern of the northeast "all dimensional tourism" has begun to take shape; 2) The main road formation period, high iron to siphon effect is dominant, exacerbating the imbalance in the development of the tourism market of Northeast cities, Harbin Tourism Economic Belt gradually formed; in the improvement of the branch period, high-speed rail have the diffusion effects become dominant, balanced development situation began to highlight; 3) High speed rail has promoted the development of urbanization in Northeast China, the pattern of city tour and surrounding tour will be changed, and the mode of inter provincial tour and inter regional tour will gradually be popular. At the same time, the high-speed rail has greatly promoted the development of the “fast-food” tourism market, the mode of short-term tourism development model will become the new darling of the high-speed rail era.
Community structure, as an emerging research field of network science, is very critical for us to cognize the spatial structure of city clusters more deeply. So far, however, previous work has failed to examine the spatial structure of the urban system in terms of its community structure systematically. To rectify this situation and provide new research approach, this article uses community detection algorithm to reveal the evolving features of community structure of city clusters in middle reach of the Yangtze River(MRYR) at county scale, based on 2000, 2007 and 2014 producer services firms’ database of city clusters in MRYR. Furthermore, this article introduces the Quadratic Assignment Procedure(QAP) to uncover the proximity mechanism and other influencing factors. The main conclusions are as follows: According to the results of network modularity and PageRank, city clusters in MRYR could be divided into three city communities, including Wuhan community, Changsha community and Nanchang community, and community structure has significant heterogeneity, which reflects in the inequality of both intra and inter communities. At city clusters’ level, geographical proximity, cultural proximity and administrative proximity have dramatic effects on community structure of city clusters in MRYR, but provincial administrative proximity causes dominant effects. Additionally, progress in communications technology and financial resources of the clustering and diffusion spur on connections intra and inter communities of city clusters in MRYR. Once inside communities’ level, geographical proximity plays a key role in the process of cities’ interacting within city community. Moreover, some influencing factors have different effects on different city communities, which provides us some beneficial policy enlightenments.
中国城市化进程的快速发展,促使人们不断解构、调整和重构对城市空间的认同,这是城市化发展中不容忽视的新问题。以Web of Science（WoS）为数据源,对国外城市空间认同研究进行了分析和知识再现。研究发现：① 城市空间认同是人们对城市发展中社会经济认同、文化认同、集体认同、身份认同与情感认同的集合。作为重要的国民意识,城市空间认同主题是国外学者关注的重要领域,对该领域研究的本质上是对城市空间实践中人文主义空间诉求的知识表征;② 在2008~2017年的国外城市空间认同研究中,美国、英国、澳大利亚等国家具有明显优势,国际合作研究网络主要在美洲-欧洲、欧洲-澳洲,以及澳洲-欧美之间;国外城市空间认同研究高被引文献注重对“空间多中心性”“地方与连续性”“城市社区”“城市公民身份”“空间绅士化”“地方主义”等方面的讨论。③ 未来研究更加倾向在“认同”“空间”“城市”“地理”“政治”“地方”,以及“社区”等新主题方面。相比较而言,国内对城市空间认同的研究较为欠缺,随着中国城市空间实践不断推向纵深阶段,需要强化城市空间认同研究的“理论自觉”。
The rapid development of China’s urbanization process has prompted people to deconstruct, adjust and reconstruct urban spatial identity continously. This is a new problem that cannot be ignored in the development of urbanization in China. Urban spatial identity is an important theme in the era of urban cultural pluralism. Taking Web of Science (WoS) citation database as data source, this paper analyzes and reproduces the researches of urban spatial identity conducted abroad. The essence of urban spatial identity is the collection of people′s social and economic identity, cultural identity, collective identity, individual identity and emotional identity in urban development. As an important type of national consciousness, the theme of urban spatial identity is a great concern to foreign scholars. The research in this field is essentially a knowledge representation of humanistic space demands in urban spatial practice. In the study of foreign urban spatial identity from 2008 to 2017, the United States, Britain, Australia and other countries have obvious advantages. The international cooperation research networks are mainly in America-Europe, Europe-Australia, and between Australia and Europe and America. Most of the highly cited literatures on urban spatial identity abroad focus on the discussion of ‘spatial multicentricity’‘locality and continuity’‘urban community’‘urban citizenship’‘space gentrification’ and ‘localism’. In the future, the study of urban spatial identity will turn to focus on new themes such as ‘identity’‘space’‘city’‘geography’‘politics’‘place’ and ‘community’. In contrast, there is a lack of research on urban spatial identity in China. With the development of urban space practice in China, it is necessary to strengthen the ‘theoretical consciousness’ of urban space identity research. China’s urban space research needs a global perspective. Although there are differences between China’s urbanization development and western developed countries, foreign research on urban space identity can provide reference and inspiration for China’s urban space practice and healthy development in the new era.
海洋盐业是中国海洋经济的重要部分,也是沿海传统产业之一,13世纪以来不断发展演变。将沿海分为北、东、南3个地带,搜集整理与海盐经济相关的多种历史文献及方志资料,运用地理学方法分析评估了海洋盐业百年尺度的动态演化过程,并比较了资源环境与管理政策的驱动作用及其差异。研究表明：① 沿海盐业表现为传统煎法长期主导、逐步废煎改晒的过程,不同盐区的演化进程存在显著差异,北部盐区最快,东部次之,南部整体发展缓慢;② 海盐生产重心长期位于东部的两淮盐区,19世纪后期向北部盐区快速迁移;③ 资源环境与生态差异促进了各岸段海盐生产演化分异,垄断性管理政策迟滞了海洋盐业的空间集聚进程,未来沿海开发与海洋盐业的可持续发展将主要依靠基于资源生态约束的管理政策与技术。
Sea salt production was an important part of coastal economy; China’s sea salt industry had a long history. Since the 13th century, sea salt economy had a rapid process of development and became the center of China’s salt industry. Under the background of industrialization and urbanization, sea salt production gradually declined and salt area gradually reduced. How to improve the sustainable development of China’s coastal salt industry and enhance its international competitiveness is one of important issue of coastal economic development in the current. Based on historical documents analysis and within the perspective of sea salt production, we analyzed spatial and temporal variations of sea salt production and the driving mechanism through combing historical process of coastal salt industry development, and discussed the impacts of regional environmental differences and management policy. This study is helpful to better understand the current historical stage of coastal salt development and the environment impact, and to provide theoretical and historical reference for coastal development and planning. In this paper, the coast was divided into three areas, i.e., north, east and south coast. Through geographical approach and according to a variety of historical documents and local chronicles associated with sea salt industry during the 13-20th centuries, we evaluated sea salt industry development and its evolution mechanism, and revealed spatial-temporal changes of sea salt industry and its driving factors. The research shows that: 1) Sea salt industry in historical periods was characterized by decocted salt production had become the focus of salt industry for a long time, which was gradually replaced by the solar salt industry; the evolution process was significant differences in different salt area: the northern salt area had the fastest progress than eastern salt area and southern salt area. 2) The focus of sea salt production had a migration changes from eastern to northern coast, and the Huainan saltworks of eastern salt area was the sea salt production center during the 13-19th centuries. 3) Natural and social-economic factors were the important driving factors resulted in the changes of spatial-temporal distribution of sea salt production; the differences of coastal natural environment promoted the different evolution process of salt production, and the monopolistic management policy in salt industry was the key to changes of sea salt industry. Thus, follow the regional difference, coastal development need to break through the limit of local interests and improve efficiency of sea salt production in coastal area with the resources and ecological advantage, and promote production agglomeration from disadvantage coast to advantage coast. This is not only the result of sea salt industry of long-term historical development in China, but also the current urgent need of the international competitiveness of coastal development. In addition, on January 1, 2017, China began formally implement the salt industry management system reform, and the old salt management system lasted for more than two thousand years will gradually open. It was predictably that the reform will have a profound impact to sea salt industry and coastal development, which the location and resources advantages will be highlighted, and will also improve the international competitiveness of China’s sea salt industry. The sustainable development of future sea salt industry will depend on management policies based on resources and ecological constraint in coastal region.
The Northeast is a complete and independent geographical and cultural region in northern China. Since the founding of the People's Republic of China(1949), the administrative division pattern in Northeast China has changed a lot. The administrative division adjustment is mainly divided into the following five stages: In 1949-1955, the provincial-level administrative districts were adjusted frequently. In 1955-1969, the provincial-level administrative district was stable, the prefecture level and county-level administrative districts were frequently split and merged. In 1969-1979, the eastern region of Inner Mongolia was allocated to the three provinces (Liaoning, Jilin and Heilongjiang) of Northeast China; In 1979-1996, the prefecture-level and county-level administrative districts were adjusted frequently. Many counties changed to cities and municipal districts. From 1997 to the present, this stage was relatively stable, administrative divisions were adjusted less. The counties and cities were mainly changed to municipal districts. Factors such as the level of economic development, traffic conditions, history and culture, physical geography conditions, and policies or standards have had important impact on the pattern and adjustment of administrative divisions in the Northeast China. Finally, the article analyzes the main problems of the administrative divisions in Northeast China, and proposes the optimization path of administrative division adjustment. The authors put forward the following suggestions: At the provincial level, four prefecture-level cities in eastern Inner Mongolia will be built separately and named Xing'an Province. At the prefecture-level, the Jiagedaqi and Songling District will be placed under the Daxinganling Area, and chang the Daxinganling Area to a prefecture-level city. At the county level, the counties and the mega-towns with good development conditions will be changed to county-level cities for increasing the number of small cities. At the township level, continuing to promote the "township merger", and townships around the big city will be changed to street offices.
采用考虑非期望产出的SBM模型对中国沿海11省区（不包括港澳台地区）海洋生态效率进行测算,借助重心模型定量刻画了2001~2015年沿海省区海洋生态效率空间格局演化特征,并基于VAR模型探究空间格局演化与其影响因素之间的动态关系。结果表明：① 沿海省区海洋生态效率呈现上升趋势,天津、上海、江苏、福建、广东海洋生态效率由相对无效跃升至相对有效,辽宁、山东、海南由相对无效上升至相对低效,河北、浙江、广西始终处于相对无效水平。② 海洋生态效率重心移动路径可分为“2001~2006年东北方向迁移阶段”和“2006~2015年西南方向迁移阶段”,但重心移动范围主要位于长三角地区。③ 针对海洋生态效率空间格局演化影响因素的分析表明,海洋产业结构对海洋生态效率的影响呈正负波动态势但以正向促进为主,随着产业结构的不断优化,负向作用不断减弱;海洋科技水平对海洋生态效率会产生显著的正向推动作用和持续效益,在海洋生态效率变动的初期刺激作用尤为强烈;环境规制作为末端处理对海洋生态效率的影响并不显著。
：This article measures the marine ecological efficiency of 11 coastal regions in China with the SBM model considering the undesirable output. The center of gravity model is applied to projecting and visualizing the evolution of spatial pattern of marine ecological efficiency from 2001 to 2015. On this basis, the VAR model is introduced to explore the dynamic relationship between spatial evolution of marine ecological efficiency and its influence factors.The results showed that: 1) The marine ecological efficiency of coastal provinces is generally low but shows an upward trend. Among them, the marine ecological efficiency of Tianjin, Shanghai, Jiangsu, Fujian and Guangdong jumped from relatively ineffective to relatively effective, and Liaoning,Shandong and Hainan rose from relatively ineffective to relatively inefficient, while Hebei, Zhejiang and Guangxi remained relatively ineffective. 2) The transition process of the gravity center of marine ecological efficiency can be divided into "northeast migration phase from 2001 to 2006" and "southwest migration phase from 2006 to 2015", however, the movement range of of the center of gravity is mainly located in the Yangtze River Delta region. 3) By analyzing the influence factors on the evolution of spatial pattern of marine ecological efficiency, we can find out that the impact of marine industrial structure on marine ecological efficiency has fluctuations between positive and negative but mainly positive. As the industrial structure is continuously optimized, the negative effect is weakened over time. Marine science and technology have a significant positive effect and sustained benefits on marine ecological efficiency, especially in the initial stage of the change of marine ecological efficiency. As a terminal treatment, the effect of environmental regulation on the marine ecological efficiency is not significant.
As a basic component of comprehensive three-dimensional transportation corridor of the Yangtze River economic belt, railway plays an important role in building transport channel, accelerating the flow of socio-economic elements, promoting the development of the whole area. Based on the railway passenger transport network, this paper analyses the spatial pattern of railway passenger accessibility by using rail-travel time index in the age of fast-speed and high-speed. And then, the impact of railway traffic change on the development of urban tertiary industry is analyzed by using the market panel data model. Results are shown as follows. 1) Railway passenger transportation in the Yangtze River economic belt has been greatly enhanced by the operating speed acceleration and transportation capability expansion of existed railway lines and the opening of high-grade new lines. However, the spatial density and time gradient during railway construction cause spatio-temporal compression of railway accessibility change unbalanced. With the development of the high-speed railway from east to west, the gap between the three zones has gradually narrowed. 2) The disequilibrium of time and space compression in the economic belt is brought by railway construction and "channel effect" is evident. On the basis of the former Jing-Guang channel, the high accessibility area has expanded to Hu-Kun channel and Hu-Han-Rong channel with the construction of the express channel from east to west. With the strengthening of the north-south channel, network development is realized. The main reason for the difference of railway traffic location is changing from presence of railway to the differences of the construction standard during the study period. High-speed railway redefines passenger services. The low-travel time network is being strengthened in major urban areas and interzone high accessibility network convergence appears along main interregional communication channels. The east-west high-speed railway corridors prop up the most obvious traffic location advantage areas. Fast connections between central cities through the "core - network" model reconstruct original discrete urban spatial organization form and drive the changes of traffic location among cities, which achieve integrated development of urban agglomerations and network communication from east to west. At the same time, the development mode may cause a greater imbalance between the core and the periphery. People and factors continue to cluster in the Yangtze River delta, Wuhan, Chang-Zhu-Tan and other economically advanced regions. 3) Railway passenger transport is one of the most important tools for long-distance personnel transportation and has great social and economic effects in the evolution of railway accessibility. Railway construction and accessibility promotion promote urban tertiary industry development and factors concentration, which shows the pattern of the Middle and the East higher, the West lower. Industry and elements tend to cluster and expand in the direction of railway channels. By using the advantage of railway traffic location, cities of Strong positive effect function, including railway channel node cities, cities along the traditional railway main channels and cities along the new railways attract elements in a relatively competitive environment.
构建包括产业结构、投资消费结构、金融结构、区域经济结构和国际收支结构在内的经济结构失衡测度指标体系,运用因子分析法和ArcGIS 空间分析法对2003~2015年东北地区经济结构失衡水平、空间格局及集聚模式进行探究,并构建空间计量模型考察其对经济增长的影响。结果表明：① 东北地区经济结构普遍处于失衡状态,但失衡水平在不断降低。② 经济结构失衡水平高值区被低值区包围,在空间上形成典型中心-外围分布模式。③ SDM模型估计结果表明,经济结构失衡对经济增长的影响具有阶段性,2003~2008年,对经济增长产生抑制作用,并表现出负空间溢出效应,而2009~2015年对经济增长产生促进作用,出现“失衡并增长”。
Along with the economy development goes into a new normal in China, the economic structure imbalance becomes one of highlighted economic problems, especially in Northeast China. This phenomenon has attracted wide attention from scholars and society. The state government points out that the adjustment of economic structure and the transformation of economic development mode, are not only important measurements to promote healthy development of national economy, but also vital methods to prosper the economy in Northeast China. Therefore, it is of important academic significance and practical value to analyze economic structure imbalance and its influence on economic growth. Based on this, this study establishes an evaluation index of economic structure imbalance, including industrial structure, investment and consumption structure, financial structure, regional economic structure and international payments structure, explores level of economic structure and its spatial-temporal characteristics of 34 cities in Northeast China from 2003 to 2015 by using factor analysis method and ArcGIS spatial analysis method. Due to the spatial effects of per capita GDP, then the paper sets up spatial econometrics models (including spatial lag model, spatial error model and spatial Durbin model) in order to explore the impact of economic structure imbalance on economic growth in Northeast China, which are different from traditional regression models ignoring space factors. The results show that: 1) Generally speaking, the economic structure in Northeast China is in imbalanced condition, but the level of imbalance is continuously decreasing. There is spatial heterogeneity in the level of imbalance, and the high level of imbalance area mainly concentrates in resource-based and old industrial cities. 2) High-value areas with imbalanced level of economic structure are surrounded by low-value areas, presenting a typical "core-periphery" distribution pattern in space. 3) Among three spatial econometrics models, the regression result obtained by spatial Durbin model is more convincing than the other two. The model reveals that the impact of economic structure imbalance is of a periodic characteristic. In the period of 2003 to 2008, it inhibits economic growth and generates significantly negative spillover effects. However, from 2009 to 2015, it promotes economic growth, that is “imbalance but growth”. The reasons for this seemingly contradictory are as followings: on one hand, from the previous analysis, the imbalance level of economic structure has been declining after adjustment, and appears a trend towards equilibrium. According to the principle of evolutionary economy, when the economic structure changes from imbalance to equilibrium, new drivers emerge and promote economic growth. On the other hand, in the Northeast China, the main driving forces for economic growth origin from the secondary, tertiary industry and investment, structure imbalance within a certain range can still stimulate economic growth weakly.
以城镇化及房地产投资对碳排放的影响机理为研究基础,首先基于变形Kaya恒等式和LMDI分解方法对1997~2015年中国30个省份的碳排放变化进行因素分解,重点考察了城镇化和房地产投资对碳排放的影响,并采用空间面板数据模型从直接影响和空间溢出效应两方面进行实证检验。研究结果表明：① 1997~2015年中国碳排放量一直保持增长趋势,房地产投资碳排放系数是最主要碳排放促减因素,城镇房地产投资强度、城镇化水平和地区总人口变化对碳排放具有促增作用,且效果逐年增大。② 各省碳排放量在空间上存在显著差异,总体上呈现东高西低的分布特征。碳排放量较少的省区空间集聚程度有所增强,地区间差异在不断缩小。③ 城镇化水平对碳排放的直接影响显著为负,但其空间溢出效应显著为正;城镇房地产投资强度对碳排放的直接影响影响具有促增效应,其空间溢出效应并不显著;两者的交互作用具的直接效应和空间溢出效应显著为负;经济发展水平对本地区碳排放的直接效应和空间溢出效应均显著为正;政府投资对碳排放的直接影响显著为负,但空间溢出效应并不显著;产业结构对本地区的碳排放没有显著的影响,但是其空间溢出效应显著为负;对外开放程度对本地区的碳排放具有显著的促减作用,但是对相邻地区的碳排放具有促增效应;随着城镇化水平和经济发展水平的提高,碳排放水平分别呈现出显著的U型和倒U型曲线关系。
Urbanization and real estate investment are important influencing factors of carbon emission in a region. Therefore, it is necessary to systematically analyze and test the internal impact mechanism of urbanization and real estate investment on carbon emission. Combining the deformation of Kaya identity and LMDI decomposition, this article decomposes the carbon emission changes of 30 provinces in China (due to data limitation, the data of Hong Kong, Macao, Taiwan and Tibet are not included in the study area) from 1997 to 2015. The spatial evolution characteristics of carbon emissions in Chinese provinces are described by Moran’s I index and LISA spatial agglomeration map. This article further uses the spatial panel data model to empirically test the effects of urbanization and real estate investment on carbon emission from both direct impact and spatial spillover effects. The results are as follow: First, from the time trend, China’s carbon emission has maintained a growth trend from 1997 to 2015. From the perspective of the decomposition factors of carbon emission, the carbon emission coefficient of real estate investment is the main driving factor to curb carbon emissions, while the intensity of urban real estate investment, the level of urbanization and the change of total population in the region have positive effects on carbon emission, and the effects are increasing year by year. Second, from the spatial distribution characteristics of carbon emission, there are significant differences for the carbon emission in the provincial-level, and the distribution characteristics are generally expressed as higher carbon emission in the east and lower in the west. The spatial concentration of provinces with less carbon emission has increased, and the regional differences among them have been shrinking. Third, from the regression results of the spatial panel data model, the direct impact of urbanization on carbon emission is significantly negative, but the spatial spillover effect is significantly positive. The direct effect of the intensity of urban real estate investment on carbon emission is positive, but its spillover effect is not significant. The direct effect and spatial spillover effect of the interaction between urbanization and the intensity of urban real estate investment are significantly negative. The direct effect and spatial spillover effect of economic development on carbon emission are significantly positive. The direct impact of government investment on carbon emission is significantly negative, but the spillover effect is not significant. Industrial structure has no significant direct effect on the carbon emission, but its spatial spillover effect is negatively negative. The degree of opening to the outside world has a significant negative direct effect on the carbon emission, but it has a positive effect on the carbon emission in the adjacent areas. With the improvement of the level of urbanization and economic development, there is a significant U-shaped and inverted U-shaped curve relationship between the two and carbon emission, respectively. This article further proposes countermeasures and suggestions to improve regional carbon emission reduction from the perspective of urbanization and real estate policies.
基于统计数据,采用Theil指数、线性倾向率、Mann-Kendall（M-K）检验、面板数据模型,从中国、八大经济区域、各省3个尺度分析中国民用汽车拥有量的时空变化特征及其与地区生产总值、居民消费水平、公路里程的关系。结果表明：① 中国民用汽车拥有量的增长分两个阶段： 1996~2005年为缓慢增长期,2005~2015年为快速增长期;② 2000~2015年中国民用汽车拥有量地区分布差异显著下降,2000~2005年区域内总差异是总差异的主要成分,北部沿海地区区域内差异是区域内总差异的主要原因,2006~2015年区域间差异是总差异的主要成分;③ 在不同的时间阶段及空间尺度各因素对民用汽车拥有量发展的作用方向和作用强度呈现一定的差异性。
With the rapid development of economy, the number of China's motor vehicle rises sharply. The rapid development of the auto industry promotes the social civilization, and drives the sustained economic growth. Cars improve the efficiency of people’s traveling, at the same time, they bring some problems such as traffic congestion, environmental pollution, energy consumption, which directly threat to human health and the sustainable development of social economy. To explore the temporal variation characteristics of civilian cars under the background of China’s rapid economic growth ownership is the basis to solve the problem such as traffic congestion, traffic accidents, car exhaust, it is also the premise of auto industry development and applicable policy. This article reveal the temporal variation characteristics of Chinese civil car ownership and differences, explore the relationship between the civil car ownership change and economic development. With the the number of civil car ownership, gross regional product, household consumption level, highway mileage and provinces population data in 31 provincial level administrative region in mainland China from 1996 to 2015, the empirical research is conducted by adopting Theil index, the linear trend estimation indicates, Mann - Kendall test and panel data mode, respectively, based on the national, the eight economic regions, and 31 provinces three spatial dimensions. The preliminary results shows that: 1) The scope of research and the continuous growth of China's car ownership can be divided into two stages: the first stage, 1996-2005, for the slow growth; The second stage, from 2005 to 2015, is for rapid growth; 2) From 2000 to 2015, China's civil car ownership regional differences declined obviously in 2000-2005, the differences of China’s civil car ownership in 31 provinces regions are determined by differences of within-region, and differences in Northern coastal areas are the main cause of regional differences; The differences of between-region were greater than the differences of within-region in 2006-2015; 3) In the research time range, the gross regional product, residents' consumption level, and highway mileage can improve the number of civil car ownership, and there are significant differences in the influence of three factors on the civil car ownership.
利用 1998年和2013年历史水下地形数据,结合2015年和2016年多波束测深、流速与河床沉积物数据,探讨了南京段河槽演变对人类活动的响应规律。结果表明：① 1998~2013年南京河段整体呈现冲刷状态,净冲刷量为0.56亿 m3。② 南京段主河槽发育有平床和沙波等微地貌,两侧发育有水下陡坡。其中,平床和小尺度沙波区域平均流速为0.79 m/s,而巨型沙波区域平均流速为1.41 m/s。③ 人类活动对该河段的水下微地貌演变与河势演变起到至关重要的作用。由于三峡大坝等人类活动的影响,上游来沙量仍将持续低于多年平均值,南京段河槽会进一步冲刷并极可能给涉水工程安全带来威胁。
The high-resolution morphological data of riverbed were observed by RESON 7125 multi-beam system during August 2015 and September 2016. Before that, few scholars used high resolution multi-beam data to study the subaqueous topography in Nanjing segment. The data of flow velocity and sediment samples were synchronously collected by an Acoustic Doppler Current Profiler (ADCP) and a sediment sampler. Bathymetric data of the Nanjing reach of the Yangtze River in 1998 and 2013 were used to analyze the change of erosion/deposition in this area. The results show that: 1) The net erosion volume of riverbed was 5.6×107m3 between 1998 and 2013. In this period, the envelope area of 0 m has reduced 5.0×106m2, and that of -2 m, -5 m and -10 m increased 1.0×106m2, 3.0×106m2 and 9.0×106m2 respectively. The width of the river channel was narrowed, but the riverbed erosion occurred. Thus the navigation condition has been improved. 2) Dunes generated over approximately 97.09％ of the downlink navigation channel , while only was 52.09% of the uplink navigation channel existed dunes. According to the standard classification of subaqueous dunes proposed by Ashley, the very large dunes, large dunes, medium dunes and small dunes were observed in the Nanjing reach. The mean flow velocity over small dunes and smooth bed floor was 0.79 m/s, while over very large dunes reached 1.41 m/s. The subaqueous steep slope was observed in both two sides of the river bank and the maximum slope (Slope height/length) of the subaqueous steep slope was up to 0.34. 3) Human activities have an important influence on the evolution of riverbed micro-morphology and river regime in the Nanjing reach: the Channel Renovation Projects leads to the more stable bank lines and the deeper channel; the construction of bridge engineering results in the local scour surrounding the bridge foundations. However, smooth bed floor existed in the upstream of the bridge foundation, while the downstream developed very large dunes. 4) Due to construction of the Three Gorges Dam and the other human activities, the sediment load is increasingly decreasing according to the real-time monitoring data of Datong hydrological station. At the same time, the calculation results of field measured data in the study area show that the bed shear stress are 0.42 N/m2 and 0.38 N/m2, however, the critical shear stress of channel is one magnitude less than the bed shear stress, they are 0.09 N/m2 and 0.05 N/m2. It means that the riverbed sediment will be in a state of frequent transport for some time to come, and it also investigates that the channel depositional environment will be in erosion in the future. The analysis of grain size of riverbed sediment which were collected in the field show that the median grain size of sediment in 2015 was coarser than it in 2008. All of the results show that the Nanjing segment would experience significant riverbed erosion in the future, and it would be a serious threat to the safety of the wading project.
以耕地资源较为富集的贫困县兰西为例,采用空间统计方法分析县域贫困格局,剖析耕地利用对农村贫困格局的影响机制。研究发现：① 兰西县贫困发生率呈西北向东南梯度递减特征。② 贫困家庭收入来源单一,对耕地的依赖性较强。③ 耕地利用的各因子对贫困发生率在影响方向和影响程度上不同,且由于耕地资源差异形成了资源依赖机制和资源利用机制,进而影响贫困格局。④ 建议该类型区域加强土地整治,提高耕地的自然质量和生态价值;加大对农业投入强度,促进农业提档升级;调整农业生产关系,实现现代农业与贫困户的有机结合,确保农业可持续发展与贫困户增收、脱贫。
：Revealing the county poverty pattern and its influence mechanism of cultivated land in resource-rich area can provide a scientific basis for us to carry out accurate poverty alleviation, regional development and rural revitalization. In this study, choosing Lanxi County where in Heilongjiang Province as the study area, the townships as the statistical units, using geostatistics and the basic methods of statistics to analysis the spatial poverty pattern of Lanxi County and in-depth analysis of the impact of cultivated land use on rural poverty mechanism. Some conclusions are drawn as follows: Firstly, a characteristic called gradient decrease, it shows the rate of poverty incidence in Lanxi County decrease from the northwest to the southeast. Secondly, poor households rely heavily on cultivated land. In 2015, the per capita income of poor households in Lanxi County was 3 983 yuan, of which 2 388 yuan was relied on cultivated land utilization. The sources of income were farming, agricultural subsidies and property income. Thirdly, among the various affecting factors of cultivated land, national grade, utilization grade, economic grade and per capita cultivated land area have an impact on the incidence of poverty. Correlation between reclamation rate and incidence of poverty is weak with little impact. In terms of performance, the better the quality of cultivated land is, the lower the poverty incidence; the more cultivated land per capita, the higher the incidence of poverty. Fourth, the dependence mechanism of cultivated land resources and the utilization mechanism of cultivated land resources are formed due to the quantity and quality difference of cultivated land per capita owned, leading to the pattern of poverty and furthering affects the scale of poverty in Lanxi County and the incidence of poverty. Fifth, the strategy of the poor counties with relatively abundant cultivated land resources are as listed below. Strengthening land consolidation and improving the natural quality and ecological value of cultivated land are of great importance; increase the intensity of agricultural input and promote the upgrading of agricultural; adjust agricultural production relations to realize the organic combination of modern agriculture and poor households; make the full use of potential and advantages of featured agriculture, organic agriculture and ecological agriculture to ensure the sustainable development of agriculture and poverty alleviation.
通过对多源遥感数据在生态系统服务价值（ESV）遥感模型中的尺度效应分析,选择满足最佳空间分辨率和长时间序列的遥感数据,对中原城市群区域2001~2013年的ESV实现了逐年逐像元水平的动态监测。结果表明：该区应用于遥感模型输入数据的最适空间分辨率为30~1 000 m,相对于30 m尺度,其他尺度估算结果的相对偏差均小于0.4%;结合年际动态监测的需求,选择了MODIS数据产品（空间分辨率500 m,时间尺度1 a）作为遥感模型的最佳数据源;研究区ESV总值在研究期内整体上呈显著增长趋势,增速约为8.6亿元/a,但在持续增长过程中经历了3次波动,且表现得越来越剧烈;在空间上,研究区ESV多年均值呈现出明显的不均衡性,表现为从西南向东部递减的趋势。研究表明此方法简单易行,初步实现了区域ESV年际动态监测遥感模型的准业务化运行。
Ecosystem service value (ESV) is not only one of the important parameters to study regional ecological economic harmony, but also a key indicator to improve the sustainable development. In recent years, based on remote sensing data, the ESV model has been gradually developed and widely used, whereas it is lacking in the application of regional ESV dynamic monitoring year by year. Here, the optimal spatial resolution and long time series of remote sensing data was selected by analyzing the scale effect, and regional ESV dynamic monitoring of year level was carried out on the pixel scale from 2001 to 2013 in Central Plains Urban Agglomeration region. The results showed that: 1) The range of the optimal spatial resolution was 30 m to 1 000 m for multi-source remote sensing data, and the relative deviation of the estimation results of different scales was less than 0.4%. With the demand of dynamic monitoring, the MODIS data products (spatial resolution was 500 m, and time scale was 1 year) were selected as the optimal data source for ESV model. 2) The total value of ESV in the study region showed a significant increasing trend from 2001 to 2013, with an increase of approximately 860 million yuan/a, but experienced three fluctuations in the continuous increasing process, and the performance was more and more intense. The dynamic change of ESV in the study region was uneven in the spatial distribution, and the growth area was slightly larger than the degraded area. Overall, the method of this article was simple and feasible, and the quasi-business operation of ESV remote sensing model was implemented.
Based meteorological data from 13 weather stations in the Yarlung Zangbo River Basin, the wind erosion climatic factor index was calculated using function given by the UN Food and Agriculture Organization and the basic features of wind erosion climatic erosivity were analyzed. The results showed that Yarlung Zangbo River wind erosion climatic factor indexes were in range of 4.2-31.9 and the average value was 14.7. On the spatial, wind erosion climatic factor indexes decreases from the west to the east. Wind erosion climatic factor indexes can reach to 40 in the west and reduced to about 5 in the eastern part of Gyaca - Mainling section. The wind erosion climate factor index has a significant seasonal variation. The largest value is in spring with the value of 8.5 and the second large value in winter with the value of 5.2. Summer and autumn show very small value. The trend of wind erosion climate factor index decreased significantly in Yarlung Zangbo River Basin on annual, spring, autumn and winter, while that of summer uptrend is not significantly. Analysis using Mann-Kendall test method shows that the wind erosion climatic factor index has abrupt change in 1987.
基于实测的军事地形图和Landsat遥感影像,重建了20世纪30年代至2015年的近百年长江荆江段河道演变空间数据集,并以此为基础使用计盒维数法在ArcGIS 10.2平台上测算得出河道分形维数近百年来的变化过程。研究表明：荆江河道具有明显的分形特征,河道分维数值在1.074 7~1.049 1之间变动,平均值为1.061 3。近百年来荆江河道演变可以划分为2个阶段：20世纪30~50年代和1976~2015年,其分维均值分别为1.074 3和1.052 6。近百年来荆江河道处于逐渐趋于稳定的过程中。各时间断面下荆江的分维值都高于上荆江,下荆江的河流复杂程度大于上荆江,且荆江河道分维的变化主要取决于下荆江。近百年来荆江河道分维下降的原因主要是1949年后荆江河道大规模治理和人工截弯取直。
Based on the historical military topographic maps and Landsat TM/ETM+ remote sensing images, the spatial data set of river course evolution in Jingjiang River section of the Yangtze River from 1930s to 2015 reconstructed in this study. On this basis, the evolutionary process of river fractal dimension over the last 100 years calculated on ArcGIS 10.2 platform by using box counting dimension method. The results show that the Jingjiang River section of the Yangtze River has obvious fractal characteristics, and the river fractal dimension varies from 1.074 7 to 1.049 1 with an average of 1.061 3. The evolution of Jingjiang River section of the Yangtze River in the past 100 years can be divided into two stages: 1930s-1950s and 1976-2015, with the average fractal dimension of 1.074 3 and 1.052 6 respectively. In the past 100 years, Jingjiang River section of the Yangtze River has been in the process of gradually stabilizing. The fractal dimension and complexity of down Jingjiang River section over the past 100 years is higher than that of up Jingjiang River section in each time, and the change of fractal dimension of whole Jingjiang River section mainly depends on that of down Jingjiang River section. The main reasons for the decline of river fractal dimension in the past 100 years are the large-scale governance of Jingjiang River section and river cut off projects after 1949.