关键词: 克鲁格曼城市体系模型, 地理空间构造, 城市体系模拟, 浙江省

Abstract:

To modify the assumed homogenerous space in the urban system model as developed by Krugman (1993), this article uses the fuzzy set theroy, together with the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) approach, and constructs a series of geographic spaces with spatial heterogeneity based on the study case on Zhejiang Province, aimed at examining the importance of economic or geographic features as determinants of the size, number, and location of cities in this province. The simulation of the Krugman’s urban system model shows geographic features indeed play an important role in the simulated broad patterns in the spatial distribution of the Zhejiang’s cities, but the urban systems in the study area evolves primarly because of economic geography features, concisely speaking, the interaction between transport costs and plant-level scale economies. After controling for other parameters, this model might predict more cities in this study case when transportation costs are higher, a share of the manufacturing sector is lower, or the elasticity of substituion is higher. Moreover, in equilibrium, the predicted cities can be found to be located according to a spaital distribution of the hexagonal lattice with the realistic economic as well as geographical enviroments. If true geography is incorporated into the model, the assumed space offers better simulating environments, and, as a consequentce, will improve the proformance behavior of the Krugman’s urban system model. The simulated patterns of city distribution can be postulated by one variant of central place theory proposed by Water Christaller (1966). Furthermore, under the surroundings of dispersed scenarios of four weights, an initial advantage in geography over all regions comes into effect leading to a variety of spatial patterns of urban system simulation in this province. Among them, for the Zhejiang urban system as a whole, cities are distributed consistent fully with those observed when these locations have a certain advantage of economic geography over the others. This might suggest that economic geography effects may dominate dynamic process of urban system development over time across space implying that high market potential might be associated with the predicted cities in this study area.

Key words: Krugman’s model of urban system, construction of geographic space, simulation of urban systems, Zhejiang Province