中国区域持续性高温事件时空变化特征研究

doi:10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2013.03.314

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

采用综合考虑高温事件温度强度、持续时间和发生面积等因子的区域持续性极端高温事件（regional continual high temperature event, RCHTE）判别方法和指标体系,分析中国近50 a RCHTE的时空变化特征。研究表明,中国RCHTE发生强度和频次较多的地区主要位于中国西北（西北西部和内蒙古西部）和东南地区（黄淮南部、江淮、江汉、江南和华南南部等地）,而中国东北和西南地区为RCHTE少发区;中国RCHTE发生频次、强度和影响面积在20世纪90年代前略呈减少趋势,90年代后呈现显著增加趋势,各指标在90年代末至21世纪初发生-突变,RCHTE增加趋势更为显著。

关键词: 区域持续性高温事件, 指标体系, 时空变化

Abstract:

Affected by global climate changes and human activities, regional continual high temperature event (RCHTE) shows new trends, such as increasing intensity, higher frequency and larger range. RCHTE is one of the most serious disasters in China which does great harm to production and living conditions of human beings. It is very necessary to carry out RCHTE study synthetically and identify its temporal and spatial characteristics in China. In this paper, 642 meteorological station data of China from 1961 to 2010 were used to calculate air temperature. Intensity, area and duration of temperature were adopted to identify RCHTE. Then single index and integrated index were established to show characteristics of RCHTE. Besides, typical RCHTE case was chosen to analyze and test the methodology of RCHTE identification. Test result showed that RCHTE identify method coupled with single and integrated index can identify RCHTE correctly and effectively. On the base of the method, temporal and spatial characteristics of RCHTE in China from 1961 to 2010 are analyzed and results show that: there are 291 times RCHTE occurred in the past 50 years, including extreme RCHTE 31 times, severe RCHTE 59 times, moderate RCHTE 113 times and weak RCHTE 88 times. Distribution of RCHTE in China show obvious spatial characteristic. Moreover, spatial distribution of the intensity and frequency of RCHTE shows a good consistency. Regions with higher intensity and frequency of RCHTE mainly lie in Northwest of China (including western Northwest China and western Inner Mongolia) and Southeast China (including southern Huanghuai, Jianghuai, Jianghan, Jiangnan and southern South China) while intensity and frequency of RCHTE in Northeast China and Southwest China are relatively lower. Temporal variations of RCHTE analyses show that RCHTE in China has obvious increasing trends over the past 50 years. The accumulation of intensity, frequency, duration and area indices of RCHTE are relatively higher in 1960s and 1970s, while the indices are lower in 1980s. Since the 1990s, the annual accumulations of each index increase significantly. Especially after 2000, RCHTE increases even more quickly. Trend and mutation test for each index of RCHTE by Mann-Kendall method show that intensity, frequency, area and duration indices of RCHTE all show slightly decreasing trends before the 1990s, but increase significantly after the 1990s with the global warming. Each index of RCHTE has mutation from the late 1990s to the early 21st century and the increase trend of RCHTE is more significant.

Key words: Regional continual high temperature event, index system, temporal and spatial variation

中图分类号:

P467

王艳姣, 任福民, 闫峰. 中国区域持续性高温事件时空变化特征研究[J]. 地理科学, 2013, 33(3): 314-321.

Yan-jiao WANG, Fu-min REN, Feng YAN. Study on Temporal and Spatial Variations of Regional Continual High Temperature Event in China[J]. SCIENTIA GEOGRAPHICA SINICA, 2013, 33(3): 314-321.

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高温实况	区域持续性高温事件识别方法识别出区域性高温事件特征
高温实况	开始时间	结束时间	Q（℃）	L（℃）	A (10⁴/km²)	D（d）	Z	发生经纬度范围
2010年中国大部地区极端高温事件	2010-7-14	2010-8-5	46.8	8612.8	640.7	23	3.8	20~48°30″N, 76~122°E
2000年中国北方大部地区极端高温事件	2000-7-7	2000-7-26	47.7	7992.3	520.3	20	3.3	34~50°30″N, 76~134°30″E
2003年中国南方大部地区极端高温事件	2003-7-11	2003-8-11	43.2	6354.7	310.5	32	3.2	18.5~39°30″N, 104°~122°E