地理科学 ›› 2014, Vol. 34 ›› Issue (11): 1291-1298.doi: 10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2014.011.1291

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粮食安全视角下中国历史气候变化影响与响应的过程与机理

方修琦1,2(), 郑景云2, 葛全胜2   

  1. 1. 北京师范大学地理学与遥感科学学院, 北京 100875
    2. 中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所, 北京100101
  • 收稿日期:2013-06-25 修回日期:2013-09-04 出版日期:2014-11-10 发布日期:2014-11-10
  • 作者简介:

    作者简介:方修琦(1962-) ,男,吉林省前郭县人,教授,博士生导师,主要从事气候变化及其影响与适应研究。E-mail:xfang@bnu.edu.cn

  • 基金资助:
    全球变化研究国家重大科学研究计划(2010CB950103)、国家自然科学基金项目(41371201,41071127)资助

Historical Climate Change Impact-Response Processes Under the Framework of Food Security in China

Xiu-qi FANG1,2(), Jing-yun ZHENG2, Quan-sheng GE2   

  1. 1. School of Geography, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China
    2. Institute of Geographical Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100101, China
  • Received:2013-06-25 Revised:2013-09-04 Online:2014-11-10 Published:2014-11-10

摘要:

基于现代全球变化研究中关于脆弱性和粮食安全的概念,把历史时期的粮食安全分解为粮食生产安全、粮食供给安全、粮食消费安全3个层次,以气候变化直接影响粮食生产水平为起点,分析气候变化-农(牧)业收成-食物的人均供给量-饥民-社会稳定性的驱动-响应链中的关键过程,指出气候变化影响的驱动-响应关系不能归结为简单的因果关系,诸如耕地、人口、政策、外来势力都会对气候变化的影响起着放大或抑制的作用。

关键词: 粮食安全, 历史时期, 气候变化影响, 中国

Abstract:

It is one of the core themes of the Past Global Change Sciences (PAGES) that to understand the mechanism and process of the past human-climate-ecosystem’s interaction in various spatial and temporal scales in order to improve the understanding of contemporary climate change impacts and adaptation. The topic is also the important theme of historical man/milieu relationships that is a big issue of concern by geographers. In this article, concepts of vulnerability and food security in the regime of Global Changes are used to illustrate historical climate change impact-response processes in China. Corresponding to the food access, food availability and food utilization, the food security of historical China is simplified to three levels of food production safety, food supply safety and food consumption safety. The food production safety was the base of food security which could reflect the social sensitivity to climate change. The food supply safety was the capacity of the society to accommodate the crisis of regional food security which could indicate the social capacity to response the impacts of climate change. The food consumption safety was the final state of food security. The insecurity of food consumption was essential for the occurrence of social instability impacted by climate change. The processes related to the impacts of climate change to grain productivity, food supply production security, individual food security, and social security are discussed. For human society, climate change means the changes of climatic resources or disasters. Impacts of climate change occurred from the direct impact on the grain harvest, then transferred further up to the sub-systems of economy, population and society mainly though the impact-response chain of climate change, agriculture harvest per capita food supply, famine, and social stability. However, the impact-response processes of climate change could not be attributed to a simple causality. The initial impact could be amplified or suppressed in feedback processes affected by many factors in each sub-system, such as arable land, population, policy, foreign forces, and so on. Both people’s spontaneous behaviours and the government's organized policies and operations played very important roles in all steps of adjusting the responses on the impacts of climate change. But each adjustment had its limitation under the given historical condition. The impact of climate change could be positive or negative. To a certain degree, even the negative impacts could be converted into new opportunity for development if right countermeasures were taken. This article has provided a framework on the impact-response processes of historical climate change. Further research should be carried out to measure the processes quantitatively on the base of the framework.

Key words: food security, historical climate change, impact of climate change, China

中图分类号: 

  • P467