Abstract: The application of traditional spatial analysis model of land use is greatly restricted due to the complex logical structure itself and the lack of rules for restricting the maximum amount of each type of land use in future land use scenario. In this study, we brought forward an improved spatial analysis model for predicting the local land use change. Since land saline-alkailization is becoming one of the most serious geological-environmental disasters in the world and threatening the sustainable development in ecology, economy and society, thus, we selected Tongyu County, a typical zone of the western Songnen Plain in semi-arid areas as study area to test the reliability of the impraved spatial analysis model of land use. We firstly evaluated the performance of the improved spatial analysis model of land use in predicting the change of saline-alkaili land through comparing the statistic area of saline-alkaili land in 2001 from remote sensing image with those from improved spatial analysis model of land use based on the characteristic of land use change during 1979 to 1992. Then, the saline-alkaili land in Tongyu County in 2030 was predicted using the improved spatial analysis model of land use based on the characteristic of land use change during 1992 to 2001. The results revealed that the improved spatial analysis model of land use is capable of predicting the composition of future land use through combining the changed and unchanged parts of land use. The results also showed that the degree of land saline-alkailization was becoming more serious and saline-alkailization was emerging in the major types of land uses (e.g. grassland, swampland). Until the year of 2030, land saline-alkailization will continuously speed up through the transition of the lowly covered grassland and swampland to saline-alkaili land. However, it was also observed that, with the change of climate and human impact, the saline-alkaili land could be transferred to non-salin-alkaili land in Tongyu County in the next coming 29 years. In this process, the low- and median- level saline-alkaili lands would be transferred to highly covered grassland, swampland and residence land, while only a few of, high- level saline-alkaili land would be transferred to residence land. In conclusion, the improved spatial analysis model of land use proposed in this study expands the applications of traditional spatial analysis model of land use and makes it possible for predicting the local land use change based on characteristic of previous land use change. Human would have to fight for survival and development with saline-alkaili land clue to the increasing confliction between human and natural environment in the arid and semi-arid areas in the near future.