地理科学 ›› 2006, Vol. 26 ›› Issue (4): 402-408.doi: 10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2006.04.402

• 论文 • 上一篇    下一篇

“泛珠三角”产业、人口分布空间变动的趋势分析

李铁立, 徐建华   

  1. 广东外语外贸大学国际经济贸易学院, 广东 广州 510420
  • 收稿日期:2005-12-14 修回日期:2006-04-13 出版日期:2006-07-20 发布日期:2006-07-20

Transition Tendency of Distribution of Industry and Population in Pan-Pearl River Delta

LI Tie-Li, XU Jian-Hua   

  1. College of International Economy and Trade, Guangdong University of Foreign Studies, Guangzhou, Guangdong 510420
  • Received:2005-12-14 Revised:2006-04-13 Online:2006-07-20 Published:2006-07-20

摘要: 随着地区经济一体化的发展,"泛珠三角"区域的经济格地理局将会出现不同程度的变化。当前"泛珠三角"区域一体化处于中期发展阶段,主要表现为产业和人口向"珠三角"集中。今后随着一体化的进一步发展,产业和人口将具有集中与扩散同时发生的特征,各地区形成特定产业和人口集中的专门化生产的地理格局。

Abstract: Regional integration and cost-saving developments in transports and communication sectors are reducing the cost of flux of trade and production factors. With the development of regional integration, the economic geography in "Pan-Pearl River Delta" will have a trend to readjustment. The result is that production of particular products should move to regions with "comparative advantages" in terms of the local supply of appropriate raw materials and labour. Companies located in these areas can provide goods and services to other regions. Increased labour and capital mobility should accelerate this process. From the year of 1997, the regional trade increase in Pan-Pearl River Delta has been associated with a shift in manufacuring production towards to regional concentration. Gini coefficient has revealed significant increase in regional concentration in 13 out of 15 manufacturing industries in Pan-Pearl River Delta, while there are significant reduction in concentration in only 2 industries. On the basis of being appraised on the industry and population, the developing degree of economic integration in the region is on the metaphase, and industry and population have trend to concentration. Economic geography’ model identifies competing forces that determine whether industries will concentrate and specialize or disperse and diversity. The most important two of these factors are "centrifugal force" and "centripetal forces". Location decisions are driven by considerations of access to markets on the one hand and by production cost considerations on the other. MPI estimates for Pan-Pearl River Delta has showed that the MPI tends to be high around Pearl River Delta, and the Changsha-Zhuzhou-Xiangtan, Xiamen-Zhangzhou-Quanzhou urban agglomerations are at the second position. Production cost is centrifugal force, particularly in relation to inputs such as labour and property. The author compares these forces, and the property price is the most important factor to disperse the manufacturing production in Pan-Pearl River Delta. In the future, when the region's integration further develop, the industry and population' distribution will represent the characteristics of concentrating and dispersing.

中图分类号: 

  • F119.9