地理科学

地理科学 ›› 1993, Vol. 13 ›› Issue (1): 69-77,96.doi: 10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.1993.01.69

• 研究报道 • 上一篇    下一篇

青海省土地资源人口承载量系统动力学研究

杨晓鹏1, 张志良2   

  1. 1. 东北财经大学经济研究所 大连 116023;
    2. 兰州大学人口研究所 兰州 730000
  • 收稿日期:1992-10-08 出版日期:1993-01-20 发布日期:1993-01-20
  • 基金资助:
    国家教委“七五”重点社科项目“中国东部向西部移民的可行性研究”成果的一部分

THE SYSTEM DYNAMICS STUDY ON THE POPULATION CARRYING CAPACITY OF LAND IN QINGHAT PROVINCE

Yang Xiaopeng1, Zhang Zhiliang2   

  1. 1. Economic Research Institute, Dongbei University of Finance and Economics, Dalian116023;
    2. Population Research Institute, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou 730000
  • Received:1992-10-08 Online:1993-01-20 Published:1993-01-20

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摘要： 以资源—资源生态—资源经济科学的理论为基础,从对青海省土地资源人口承载量系统条件的综合分析入手,主要在三个层次(各类资源之间的平衡关系、农业结构与资源结构的匹配关系、单产潜力的预测与总生产潜力的仿真)上进行人口与资源关系的高层次、多侧面的综合研究,从而建立了该地区土地资源人口承载量的动态模型.

Abstract: This essay makes a high-level,multiaspect synthetic study on the relation of population and resources through building system dynamics model of carrying population capacity of land resources in Qinghai Province on the basis of theory of resource-resource ecology-resource economy science,on the three main levels(balance relation among all kinds of the resources,mate relation of agriculture structure and resource,forecast of per unit yield potentiality and simulation of total yield potentiality). From the beginning of synthetic analysis of system condition of population carrying capacity of land resource,this essay builds simulating models of seven sub-systems, such as water and land resource,plantry,animal husbandry,fishery,consumption and population,etc.Through revealing the relation and affection which changed accompany with time between the factors in the population carrying capacity to discribe correctly the relation between the sub-system and inner subsystems that mentioned before,thus build tendency model of this area on population carrying capacity of land resource.This essay gets a series of rational results for the changing tendency of carrying capacity of land resource and makes a primary study.