地理科学 ›› 2012, Vol. 32 ›› Issue (7): 798-806.doi: 10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2012.07.798

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高速公路对区域发展影响的评价体系研究——以山东省为例

刘瑞超1,2(), 丁四保1, 王成新2, 孙京姐2,3   

  1. 1.东北师范大学城市与环境科学学院,吉林 长春130024
    2.山东师范大学人口·资源与环境学院,山东 济南 250014
    3.山东省乳山市第五中学,山东 威海 264511
  • 收稿日期:2011-11-14 修回日期:2012-04-10 出版日期:2012-07-20 发布日期:2012-07-20
  • 作者简介:

    作者简介:刘瑞超(1986-),男,山东青岛人,博士研究生,主要从事区域经济学研究。E-mail:lrc1006@gmail.com

  • 基金资助:
    国家自然科学基金项目(40771060)、山东省优秀中青年科学家科研奖励基金计划(BS2010SF024)资助

The Impact Assessment System of Expressway on Regional Development: A Case Study of Shandong Province

Rui-chao LIU1,2(), Si-bao DING1, Cheng-xin WANG2, Jing-jie SUN2,3   

  1. 1. College of Urban and Environmental Sciences, Northeast Normal University, Changchun, Jilin 130024, China
    2. College of Population Resource and Environment, Shandong Normal University, Jinan, Shandong 250014, China
    3.The Fifth Middle School of Rushan, Weihai, Shandong 264511, China
  • Received:2011-11-14 Revised:2012-04-10 Online:2012-07-20 Published:2012-07-20

摘要:

作为现代社会的重要交通设施,高速公路缩短了区域间的时空距离,迅速成为区域交通运输网络的动脉,极大地改变了人们的生产、生活方式。为充分研究高速公路对区域发展影响的态势与差异性,构建了“指标遴选–权重确定与修正–评价运算”的评价体系流程,从经济社会环境角度建立指标体系,设计DAEF评价模型。为检验评价体系的科学性与实用性,将这一体系应用于山东省实证研究。经实证检验:① 所设计的指标体系与评价方法能够准确反映高速公路对区域发展影响的态势。高速公路对山东省区域经济、社会发展呈正向影响、对区域环境变化呈现负向影响,影响力逐渐增强;各种指标对高速公路反应灵敏度随时间推移呈现一定规律:区域经济发展速度灵敏度波动下降,而区域产业结构、区域经济效益在稳步上升;区域现代化进程灵敏度最高,区域外向联系次之,区域教育医疗卫生最低;高速公路环境负外部性增强。② 评价体系能够准确反映高速公路对区域经济、社会影响的空间差异。高速公路对山东省现状区的影响强于潜在区,影响力在各区具有自东向西递减的趋势,在中部又有北侧高于南侧的现象,即对“山东半岛蓝色经济区”、“济南都市圈”部分影响最大,“黄河三角洲高效生态经济区”部分次之,“鲁南经济带”部分最低,分指标评价结果差异性明显。但高速公路对区域环境影响差异评价不够理想,认为高速公路环境外部性的货币化将是评价体系改进的重点所在。

关键词: 高速公路, 区域发展, 态势评价, 差异评价, 山东省

Abstract:

As an important transportation facility of modern society, the expressway shortens the regional space-time distance and satisfies people's desire for speed and efficiency. It has changed the mode of production and people's lifestyle immensely and quickly becomes the artery of regional transportation network and important bridge of regional logistics. In order to give a comprehensive study of the influence situation and difference of expressway on regional development, the research designs the "indices selection-weight determination and modification-evaluation calculation" assessment process of the expressway's influence on the regional development. From economic, social and environmental perspective, it establishes index system, and structures DAEF model based on Delphi method, Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP), Entropy method and Fuzzy Comprehensive Evaluation Approach (FCE). This assessment system is applied to the empirical study of Shandong Province in order to examine its scientificalness and practicability. The assessment system can reflect the situation of expressway's influence on the regional development accurately. The expressway has more and more important influence on the development of Shandong Province; it has a positive effect on regional economy and social development, on the contrary, has a negative effect on regional environmental change. The system also can reflect the variation of sensitivity of various index for expressway's responses. The assessment system can reflect spatial difference of expressway on the regional economy and society accurately. The expressway has a stronger influence on current area of Shandong Province than its potential one. The expressway economy and social influence in each area has a decreasing trend from east to west. There is a phenomenon that the north is more strongly influenced than the south in the middle part, namely, the influence of the expressway on the "Shandong Peninsula Blue Economic Region" and "Metropolitan circle of Jinan" is the strongest, the influence on the "Huanghe River Delta Effective Eco-Economic Region” takes the second and the "Lu-Nan Economic Belt" is the least. The expressway's environmental influence on two areas is roughly equal, even sometimes the influence on current area is weaker than that of potential area. The demonstration has been examined. The assessment system can reflect the situation of expressway's influence on the regional development and spatial difference of expressway on the regional economy and society accurately. But the assessment of regional environment influence is not ideal enough. The direct performance is that the classification effect of influence degree is not obvious. The reason is the monetization of expressway's environment externality is difficult to realize. The demonstration data is calculated out based on the statistics which uses administrative units as the basic calculation units, rather than the single calculation of each expressway's O-D volume. The monetization of expressway's environment externality will be the improved emphasis and basis of the assessment system.

Key words: expressway, regional development, situation assessment, difference assessment, Shandong Province

中图分类号: 

  • F061.5