地理科学 ›› 2012, Vol. 32 ›› Issue (11): 1410-1416.doi: 10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2012.011.1410

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甘肃围产儿病例时空聚集探测方法的多模型比较分析

王培安1(), 白永平2(), 郭金仙3, 李佳越3   

  1. 1. Faculty of Geogmatics and Geographic Information, Jiaotong University, Lanzhou, Gansu 730070, China
    2.College of Geography and Environmental Science,Northwest Normal University,Lanzhou, Gansu 730070,China
    3.Health Department,Gansu Maternity and Child Care,Lanzhou, Gansu 730050,China
    1.兰州交通大学测绘与地理信息学院,甘肃 兰州 730070
    2.西北师范大学地理与环境科学学院, 甘肃 兰州 730070; 3.甘肃省妇幼保健院保健部, 甘肃 兰州 730050
  • 收稿日期:2011-10-26 修回日期:2012-01-20 出版日期:2012-11-20 发布日期:2012-11-20
  • 作者简介:

    作者简介:王培安(1974-),男,甘肃兰州人,博士研究生,主要研究方向为区域经济、区域发展与管理。E-mail:136848090@qq.com

  • 基金资助:
    国家自然科学基金项目(40771054)、高等学校博士学科点专项科研基金联合资助课题(20106203110002)资助

Pei-an WANG1(), Yong-ping BAI2(), Jin-xian GUO3, Jia-yue LI3   

  • Received:2011-10-26 Revised:2012-01-20 Online:2012-11-20 Published:2012-11-20

摘要:

进行空间自相关分析时,由于权重矩阵构建的主观性和选择单一时间截面数据随机性影响,存在可能的选择偏倚性问题。扫描统计量方法则有效地解决上述问题。研究选择甘肃省中南部51个区、县,采用Geoda0.9.5和Clusterseer0.2.3软件,对2001~2010年卫生部监测点上报的30463例围产儿死亡病例进行空间自相关和扫描统计量分析,从不同尺度上对分析结果进行验证,证明时空扫描统计量方法有显著的比较优势。

关键词: 尺度矩阵, 空间自相关, 扫描统计量, 围产儿, 聚集, 甘肃

Abstract:

The problem of aggregation has been always one of the hot and focuses of the region research, and the positioning of aggregation is a prerequisite for continuing in-depth study in aggregation analysis. Aggregation appears a high degree of sensitivity on the scale. When the aggregation was analyzed by using the spatial autocorrelation method, scale choices are often susceptible to subjective judgments of the researchers, and exist the possibility of selection bias. So the spatial weight problem has been controversial. In addition, the aggregation is obviously space-dependent as well as time-dependent since different aggregation takes place within different time and space, which is neglected by the spatial autocorrelation method. Therefore, some scholars have been trying to explore better ways for aggregation analysis. In comparison, the spatial-temporal scan statistic method raised by scholars as Kulldorff shows its superiority. This paper targets at 51 districts and counties within the central and southern regions of Gansu Province, which are densely populated minority areas. Using software Geoda0.9.5 and Clusterseer0.2.3, spatial autocorrelation analysis and space time scan statistical analysis were adopted about 30463 perinatal deaths during 2001 to 2010 according to the report delivered by monitoring points of Ministry of Health. It also gives a detailed comparison between spatial autocorrelation and scanning statistic from the different perspectives of scale choices, scale transforming and space integration, and then tests the analysis results by appealing Sam 4.0. Through theoretical and empirical analysis, it further confirms that spatial-temporal scan statistic method has the significant advantage from the three aspects of scale selection, scale conversion, and spatial-temporal integration,which shows that it is not only effective measure to solve the problem of artificial selection, but also to achieve the scale extrapolation and automatic conversion, and more favorable mix of three-dimensional, dynamic, multi-scale analysis. Therefore, a conclusion is drawn that the space-time scan statistic method is superior than other methods. Specifically, there are three main aspects: 1) Compared to spatial autocorrelation methods and space-time scan statistic method, the adjacency and distance matrix is artificial selection in spatial autocorrelation. The space-time scan statistic method achieves the purpose of scale automatically conversion and avoids the instability. 2) The scale of spatial autocorrelation methods is static, single, and the scale of space-time scan statistic is dynamic, three-dimensional and multi-scale.3) In analyzing the issue of spatial autocorrelation method does not take into account the time factor, while the space-time scan statistic method is not only the full integration of space technology, and achieves good analytical results. By combining the time factor, the range of aggregation can be reduced to a more accurate range. Moreover, space-time scan statistic method can even make a prediction, which can provide a basis for decision-making.

Key words: scale matrix, spatial autocorrelation, spatial-temporal proximity, scan statistic, perinatal deaths, aggregation, Gansu

中图分类号: 

  • F263