地理科学 ›› 2013, Vol. 33 ›› Issue (5): 538-544.doi: 10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2013.05.538

• • 上一篇    下一篇

基于集对分析的旅游城市经济系统脆弱性评价——以舟山市为例

苏飞1(), 陈媛1, 张平宇2   

  1. 1.浙江工商大学旅游与城市管理学院, 浙江 杭州 310018
    2.中国科学院东北地理与农业生态研究所, 吉林 长春 130102
  • 收稿日期:2012-09-13 修回日期:2013-01-10 出版日期:2013-05-20 发布日期:2013-05-20
  • 作者简介:

    作者简介:苏飞(1982-),男,安徽颍上人,讲师,博士,主要从事城市与区域发展研究。E-mail:suf910@163.com

  • 基金资助:
    国家自然科学基金项目(41071108)、浙江省教育厅科研项目(Y201223142)、杭州市哲学社会科学规划重点项目(A12YJ04)、浙江工商大学校级重点课题(CX201205003、1040KU112012)资助

Vulnerability Assessment of Tourism City’s Economic System Based on the Set Pair Analysis: A Case Study of Zhoushan City

Fei SU1(), Yuan CHEN1, Ping-yu ZHANG2   

  1. 1.School of Tourism & City Administration, Zhejiang Gongshang University, Hangzhou, Zhejiang 310018, China
    2. Northeast Institute of Geography and Agricultural Ecology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Changchun, Jilin 130102, China
  • Received:2012-09-13 Revised:2013-01-10 Online:2013-05-20 Published:2013-05-20

摘要:

基于经济系统脆弱性的内涵,从敏感性和应对能力2个方面建立了旅游城市经济系统脆弱性评价指标体系,采用熵值法确定各评价指标的权重,运用集对分析法构建了脆弱性评估模型。以群岛旅游城市舟山为例,分析了1995~2010年舟山市旅游型经济系统脆弱性的演变特征及主要影响因素。结果表明:① 舟山市经济系统对不利扰动的敏感性呈下降趋势,区域应对能力波动上升,系统脆弱性整体上呈现不断下降态势;② 敏感性的强弱对舟山经济系统脆弱性的影响居于主导地位;③ 总游客量增长率、旅游外汇收入占旅游总收入比重、地方财政自给率、客源市场集中度等是影响系统脆弱性的关键因子;地方财政自给率低、产业结构不合理及教育投入不足是阻碍区域应对能力提升的主要因素。

关键词: 旅游城市, 经济系统, 脆弱性评价, 集对分析, 舟山市

Abstract:

Set pair analysis (SPA) is to study the certain and uncertain relationship among different things and is introduced to assess the economic system vulnerability (ESV) of tourism city through the approximate degree of ESV to the optimal set, which is calculated to describe the vulnerability level of the economic system by combining multiple indices. Based on a detailed discussion about the conception of ESV, the article establishes an economic system vulnerability assessment model of tourist city from the aspects of sensitivity and response capacity by using the SPA. Then it uses entropy method to evaluate the indicators and to calculate their weights for the assessment of ESV. Taking islands city— Zhoushan as an example, this article analyses the evolution characteristics and the major influencing factors of the ESV in 1995-2010. The results indicate that firstly the ESV of Zhoushan City shows a declining trend, the sensitivity to adverse disturbance takes on a declining trend, and response capacity presents a fluctuation rise. The evolution of ESV can be divided into two stages: the economic vulnerability of Zhoushan City declined with fluctuation in 1995-2002; the ESV steadily decreased in 2003-2010. Secondly, the influence of sensitivity on Zhoushan’s economic system vulnerability is more evident than that of response capacity. The evolution of sensitivity to adverse disturbance presents a fluctuation decline which can be divided into three stages: decreased with obvious fluctuation in 1995-1999; declined slowly in 2000-2004; increased firstly and then descended rapidly in 2005-2010. While the evolution of response capacity changed slightly after 1995, declined with fluctuation in 1995-1999 and then went up steadily in 2000-2010. Thirdly, the growth rate of the total number of tourists, the proportion of foreign exchange earnings to the total tourism income, the self-sufficiency rate of local finance to concentration of tourist source market are the leading factors influencing the ESV of Zhoushan City. Finally, the results of obstacle degree of regional response capacity indicate that the low self-sufficiency rate of local finance, unreasonable industrial structure and insufficient education input are the most important obstacle factors to enhance the response capacity.

Key words: tourism city, economic system, vulnerability assessment, set pair analysis, Zhoushan City

中图分类号: 

  • F590