地理科学

地理科学 ›› 2014, Vol. 34 ›› Issue (4): 479-487.doi: 10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2014.04.479

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基于SPI的江苏沿海开发地区旱涝演变特征分析——以盐城市为例

叶正伟1,2()   

  1. 1.江苏省环洪泽湖生态农业生物技术重点实验室,江苏 淮安 223300
    2.淮阴师范学院城市与环境学院,江苏 淮安 223300
  • 收稿日期:2013-01-24 修回日期:2013-05-23 出版日期:2014-04-10 发布日期:2014-04-10
  • 作者简介:

    作者简介：叶正伟（1973-）,男,安徽黄山人,博士,副教授,主要从事水文气象与自然灾害方面的研究。E-mail：leafyzw@163.com

  • 基金资助:
    国家自然科学基金重点项目(40730635)、水利部公益性行业科研专项经费项目(200901042)、教育部人文社会科学研究一般项目(10YJC790342)、江苏省教育厅高校哲社科学研究(2011SJB790005)、江苏省高校“青蓝工程”优秀青年骨干教师项目资助

Flood and Drought Change Based SPI Analysis in the Developing Coastal Region of Jiangsu Province: A Case Study in Yancheng City

Zheng-wei YE1,2()   

  1. 1.Jiangsu Key Laboratory for Eco-Agricultural Biotechnology around Hongze Lake, Huai′an,Jiangsu 223300, China
    2.School of Urban and Environmental Sciences, Huaiyin Normal University, Huai′an,Jiangsu 223300, China
  • Received:2013-01-24 Revised:2013-05-23 Online:2014-04-10 Published:2014-04-10

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摘要：

基于标准化降水指数（Standardized Precipitation Index,SPI）方法,分析了盐城市1960~2009年间的旱涝演变特征。结果显示：① 年降水量呈减少趋势,但年际变幅大,以20世纪70年代、80年代偏低,60年代、90年代偏高。1~3月、6月、11~12月降水呈增加趋势,其余月份为减少趋势。② 多时间尺度SPI皆可监测旱涝变化,SPI3、SPI6对年内旱涝暴发时间与持续影响更为敏感。不同季节SPI的年代际差异显著,SPI冬季呈增加趋势,其余季节及年SPI皆为减小趋势。③ SPI1、SPI3、SPI6的变率较稳定,而SPI12变率显著偏大。年与夏季SPI变率高度相似,但春季与秋季SPI变率的变幅偏大。④ 多时间尺度SPI皆以3~15月的周期为主,但SPI6、SPI12还有较稳定的16~32个月长周期。而年与不同季节SPI则以3 a、6 a左右周期为主,并具10 a左右的中尺度周期及20 a左右的长周期。

关键词: 降水, 标准化降水指数, 旱涝演变, 盐城, 江苏沿海地区

Abstract:

Flood and drought evolution during 1960-2009 in Yancheng City is analyzed using the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI). Results show that large fluctuation amplitude can be seen in annual precipitation with a slightly decreasing trend detected. An upward trend can be found in January, February, March, June, November and December, while the rest months show a downward trend. Flood and drought can be monitored using multi-scale SPI method, SPI3, SPI6 are more sensitive to the occurrence period and continuous effect of flood and drought. Frequent alteration of flood and drought in 1960s and 1990s can be examined both by annual and seasonal SPI, but drought is quite stable in 1980s. A significant difference can be seen in decadal change of seasonal SPI, and SPI in winter shows an increasing trend while decreasing trend in the rest seasons and annual SPI. Variation in SPI1, SPI3 and SPI6 is stable while variation is larger in SPI12. Variation in annual and summer SPI shows a highly similar change process, while it has relatively larger change amplitude in spring and autumn SPI. A period at about 3-15 months can be checked for multi-scale SPI change; however, a period at about 16-32 months is quite stable in SPI6 and SPI12. A period at about 3-6 years is stable both in annual and seasonal SPI which accompanied with 10 and 20 years period.

Key words: precipitation, Standardized Precipitation Index, flood and drought evolution, Yancheng City, the coastal region of Jiangsu Province

中图分类号: 

  • P954