基于特征椭圆的中国经济空间分异研究

doi:10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2014.08.979

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

根据克鲁格曼的“两个自然”理论,运用空间统计SDE方法,在GIS技术的支持下,基于中国国土空间特征椭圆系列——国土均衡分布椭圆、国土地形分布椭圆、人口分布椭圆等,在空间上定量刻画了中国经济空间分异的基本特征,并为分析经济空间分异提供了新的方法参考。主要结论如下：① 在“两个自然”的分异作用下,中国经济空间分异主要以东-西方向为主。相对于国土均衡分布椭圆,国土地形分布椭圆明显偏西,长、短轴均明显减小,这反映出中国高地势主要集中分布在西部;中国人口空间分布靠近东部地区,其椭圆长、短轴长度均显著减小,充分表现出了经济活动的空间分异特征和空间聚集特征;② 国土地形等“第一自然”要素对社会经济活动的控制作用显著。人口分布椭圆对于地形分布椭圆的空间分异系数为89.55%,其93%的空间展布范围位于胡焕庸线的东南,且分布轴线基本与胡焕庸线平行;③ 在“第二自然”聚集机制的作用下,中国城市体系人口、GDP主体集中在胡焕庸线东南方约20%的大陆国土面积上,且二者之间也存在着明显的空间差异。从“第一自然”要素的空间分异和控制作用来看,胡焕庸线以西地区,特别是西北侧地区发展经济、集聚人口的功能较弱。同时,由于区域发展的内在核心动力聚集机制的空间差异性,区域发展的过程也呈现不平衡的特征。从兼顾效率和公平的角度出发,可通过重点培育人口分布较为集中的成渝城市群、关中城市群等中西部经济增长极拉动中国经济增长和市场空间向中西部发展;可通过制定相关政策吸引人口向GDP分布椭圆北部地区流动、聚集,发挥人口的红利作用,推进经济增长由南向北发展。

关键词: 经济空间分异, 第一自然, 第二自然, 标准差椭圆, 中国

Abstract:

：This study described the spatial variation in China spatial explicitly through a series of ellipses according to Krugman's "first and second natural" theory. The ellipse of national geometric profile in China was taken as the original state of spatial variation. The first nature variation could be explained through the ellipse of topographical distribution in China, and the second nature variation was represented by the spatial distribution of population. The results are as followings. 1）The spatial variation is mainly between the eastern and the western area in China. The spatial coverage of topographical distribution ellipse is in the west, and it is much smaller than the equilibrium distribution ellipse which is in accordance with the topographical characteristics that the west is higher than the east in China. The population distribution ellipse is mainly covering the North China Plain and the Middle and Lower Yangtze Valley Plain and its spatial coverage is much smaller. It is proved the spatial variation of the first nature and the spatial agglomeration of the second nature. 2）The spatial variation from the first natural factors is significant in China. 93% of the population distribution ellipse range is located in the southeast of Hu's line, and the main axis is almost parallel to Hu's line. The spatial variation index of population distribution ellipse to the topographical distribution ellipse is 89.55%. 3）For the prefectural-level cities, the population ellipse and GDP ellipse are aggregated in the southeast of Hu's line which is 20% of the mainland area in China. There is the spatial disparity between the population and GDP distribution. In general, the natural endowments between the east and west in China resulted in the unbalanced beginning of regional development. It is shown that the regions in the north of Hu's line, especially in the northwest area, is weak to gathering the population. Meanwhile, spatial differences of the agglomeration which is the inner core of the regional developing momentum present the unbalanced process of regional development. From the perspective of both efficiency and equity, the promotion of Chengdu-Chongqing, Guanzhong and other major economic zones which is with the large population is relatively could stimulate the economic growth in central and western China, and to attract the population concentration in the north part of GDP distribution ellipse could promote the economy development from the south to the north. In addition, Standard deviation ellipse method can not only subtly describe the spatial variation of the different features, but also can quantitatively analyze the extent of spatial variation, and it is proved to be a new method for reference to study the economic spatial variation.

Key words: spatial variation, first nature, second nature, standard deviational ellipse, China

中图分类号:

F129.9

赵璐, 赵作权. 基于特征椭圆的中国经济空间分异研究[J]. 地理科学, 2014, 34(8): 979-986.

Lu ZHAO, Zuo-quan ZHAO. Projecting the Spatial Variation of Economic Based on the Specific Ellipses in China[J]. SCIENTIA GEOGRAPHICA SINICA, 2014, 34(8): 979-986.

图/表 6

图1

图2

图3

图4

表1

图5

参考文献 40

[1]	Clark Edwards.Spatial aspects of rural development[J]. Agricultural Economics Research, 1981, 33(3): 11-24.
[2]	李敏纳, 蔡舒. 区域经济空间分异研究评述[J]. 河南大学学报(社会科学版), 2010, 50(1): 51~57.
[3]	Krugman P.First nature, second nature and metropolitan location[J]. Journal of Regional Science, 1993, 33: 129-144.
[4]	Krugman P.Increasing returns and economic geography[J]. Journal of Political Economy, 1991, 99(1): 483-499.
[5]	胡焕庸. 中国人口之分布[J]. 地理学报, 1935, 2(2): 33~74.
[6]	何大章, 陈小憕. 我国地形“对角线”及弧形山脉与河流[J]. 河南大学学报, 1986, (3): 89~91.
[7]	陆大道. 结构与最佳发展——提出“点-轴系统”和“T”型结构以来的回顾与再分析[J]. 地理科学, 2001, 2: 127~135.
[8]	夏海斌, 王铮. 中国大陆空间结构分异的进化[J]. 地理研究, 2012, 31(12): 2123~2138.
[9]	樊福才. 黄河流域城市经济空间分异与发展研究[D]. 开封:河南大学, 2008.
[10]	徐勇, 马国霞, 郭腾云. 区域经济增长时空分异模拟方法——以京津冀城市圈为例[J]. 地理科学, 2007, 27(6): 749~755.
[11]	陈月英. 近20年来中国滨海地带区域经济分异特点研究[J]. 地理科学, 2007, 27(5): 642~647.
[12]	刘清春, 王铮. 中国区域经济差异形成的三次地理要素[J]. 地理研究, 2009, 28(2): 430~440.
[13]	Niko S, Guillermo P, Amit P, et al.Inequity in human resources for health: measurement issues[J]. Geographical Analysis, 2012, (44): 151-161.
[14]	俞路, 蒋元涛. 我国区域经济差异的时空分析——基于全国与三大都市圈的对比分析[J]. 财经研究, 2007, 33(3): 17~28.
[15]	Wagner H H, Fortin M J.Spatial analysis of landscapes: concepts and statistics[J]. Ecology, 2005, 86: 1975-1987.
[16]	Gotway C A, Linda L J.Combining incompatible spatial data[J]. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 2002, 97: 632-648.
[17]	Duranton G, Overman H G.Testing for localization using micro-geographic data[J]. Review of Economic Studies, 2005, 72: 1077-1106.
[18]	Lauren M S, Mark V J.Spatial statistics in ArcGIS[C]//Fischer M M, Getis A. Handbook of Applied Spatial Analysis: Software Tools, Methods and Applications[M]. Berlin: Springer, 2010.
[19]	Wong D W S. Several fundamentals in implementing spatial statistics in GIS: using centrographic measures as examples[J]. Geographic Information Sciences, 1999, (2): 163-173.
[20]	Lefever D W.Measuring geographic concentration by means of the standard deviational ellipse[J]. The American Journal of Sociology, 1926, (1): 88-94.
[21]	赵作权. 地理空间分布整体统计研究进展[J]. 地理科学进展, 2009, (1): 1~8.
[22]	Warntz W, Neft D.Contributions to a statistical methodology for areal distribution[J]. Journal of Geographical Systems, 2011, (13): 127-145.
[23]	Robert S Y.The standard deviational ellipse: An updated tool for spatial description[J]. Geografiska Annaler. Series B, Human Geography, 1971, (1): 28-39.
[24]	Furfey P H.A note on Lefever′s "standard deviational ellipse"[J]. American Journal of Sociology, 1927, (33): 94-98.
[25]	O′Loughlin J, Witmer F D W. The localized geographies of violence in the North Caucasus of Russia, 1999-2007[J]. Annals of the Association of American Geographers, 2010, 101(1): 178-201.
[26]	Vanhulsel M, Carolien Becks, Davy Janssen, et al.Measuring dissimilarity of geographically dispersed space-time paths[J]. Transportation, 2011, 38: 65-79.
[27]	Mamuse A, Porwal A, Kreuzer O, et al.A new method for spatial centrographic analysis of mineral deposit clusters[J]. Ore Geology Reviews, 2009, 36(4): 293-305.
[28]	Yue T X, Fan D M, Liu J Y.Changes of major terrestrial ecosystems in China since 1960[J]. Global and Planetary Change, 2005, 48: 287-302.
[29]	赵媛, 杨足膺, 郝丽莎, 等. 中国石油资源流动源-汇系统空间格局特征[J]. 地理学报, 2012, 67(4): 455~466.
[30]	Bachi R.Standard distance measures and related methods for spatial analysis[J]. Regional Science Association, 1962, 10: 83-133.
[31]	Neft D S.Statistical analysis for areal distributions[M]. Philadelphia: Regional Science Research Institute, 1966.
[32]	U.S.Census Bureau.Centers of Population Computation for 1950, 1960, 1970, 1980, 1990 and 2000[R].Washington, D.C, 2001.
[33]	赵作权, 宋敦江.中国国土全局空间统计[J]. 科技导报, 2009, 24: 56~60.
[34]	陆大道, 刘卫东. 论我国区域发展与区域政策的地学基础[J]. 地理科学,2000, 20(6): 487~493.
[35]	封志明, 唐焰, 杨艳昭, 等.中国地形其幅度及其与人口分布的相关性[J]. 地理学报, 2007, 62(10): 1073~1082.
[36]	Brakman S, Garretsen H, Marrewijk C.An Introduction to geography economics. Trade, location and growth[M]. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2001.
[37]	胡焕庸. 中国人口的分布、区划和展望[J]. 地理学报, 1990, 45(2): 139~145.
[38]	葛美玲, 封志明. 基于GIS的中国2000年人口之分布格局研究——兼与胡焕庸1935年之研究对比[J]. 人口研究, 2008, 32(1): 51~57.
[39]	国家统计局城市社会经济调查司. 中国城市统计年鉴[R]. 北京:中国统计出版社, 2011.
[40]	樊杰,陶岸军,吕晨.中国经济与人口重心的耦合态势及其对区域发展的影响[J].地理科学进展,2010,29(1):87~95.

特征椭圆	中心坐标	长半轴(km)	短半轴 (km)	方位角	中心所在城市	空间范围约占大陆国土空间的比重
国土均衡分布椭圆	103.30°E, 36.64°N	1684.35	1161.88	86.26°	兰州市	55%
国土地形分布椭圆	94.64°E, 35.16°N	1327.89	870.11	89.22°	玉树藏族自治州	37%
中国人口分布椭圆	113.62°E, 32.63°N	1092.86	822.18	28.83°	南阳市	26%
城市体系人口分布椭圆	114.15°E, 32.65°N	1049.56	631.94	25.41°	驻马店市	20%
城市体系GDP分布椭圆	115.68°E, 32.94°N	1048.50	665.93	16.58°	阜阳市	20%