地理科学 ›› 2016, Vol. 36 ›› Issue (3): 410-416.doi: 10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2016.03.012

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基于BDI决策的MAS-CA模型黄海海滨城镇格局模拟研究——以大连金石滩为例

杨俊1,2(), 裴颖1, 席建超2, 葛全胜2, 李雪铭1   

  1. 1.辽宁师范大学自然地理与空间信息科学辽宁省重点实验室,辽宁 大连 116029
    2. 中国科学院陆地表层格局与模拟重点实验室/中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所,北京 100101
  • 收稿日期:2015-04-01 修回日期:2015-10-12 出版日期:2016-03-20 发布日期:2016-03-20
  • 作者简介:

    杨俊 (1978-),男,湖北孝昌人,副教授,主要从事区域地表过程、土地利用变化模拟与地理信息系统应研究。E-mail: yangjun@lnnu.edu.cn

  • 基金资助:
    国家自然科学基金项目(41471140, 41171137) ,辽宁省高等学校杰出青年学者成长计划(LJQ2015058)资助

Urban Pattern Simulation of the Yellow Sea Coast Based on BDI Decision MAS-CA Model: A Case Study on Jinshitan, Dalian

Jun Yang1,2(), Ying Pei1, Jianchao Xi2, Quansheng Ge2, Xueming Li1   

  1. 1.Liaoning Key Laboratory of Physical Geography and Geomatics, Liaoning Normal University, Dalian 116029, Liaoning, China
    2. Key Laboatory of Land Surface Pattern and Simulation, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, China
  • Received:2015-04-01 Revised:2015-10-12 Online:2016-03-20 Published:2016-03-20
  • Supported by:
    National Nature Science Foundation of China(41471140,4117137), Outstanding Young Scholars Growth Program of Liaoning University(LJQ2015058)

摘要:

基于BDI决策MAS-CA模型,利用1998年、2003年、2008年和2013年土地利用数据,对大连金石滩2020年和2030年城镇区域面积进行模拟,Kappa系数达到0.635。研究结果表明: BDI决策补充了MAS-CA模型决策的不足,使得模型整体框架进一步完善,模拟结果具体准确,精度达到89.1%。金石滩城镇用地呈现出依附海岸线和交通线的格局,向海岸线靠拢,城镇用地在中部区域比较集中且城镇用地有向周围区域扩张的趋势,葡萄沟村、河咀子村、庙上村、什字街村转变最大。从金石滩城镇格局的模拟结果发现,海岸线因素引导着城镇格局的转变方向。滨海地区的生态环境容易被破坏,政府应该采取措施寻找土地利用与生态环境保护的完美平衡点。

关键词: 多智能体, 元胞自动机, BDI决策, 城镇格局, 模拟

Abstract:

Based on MAS-CA model improved by BDI decision model, using the land use data of 1998, 2003, 2008 and 2013, this article simulated the urban landscape pattern in 2020 an d 2030 of Jinshitan, Dalian ,which is the typical urban area of coast of the Yellow Sea. The Kappa coefficient is 0.635. The results show that:1) The BDI model supplement the deficiency of the MAS-CA model. After joining BDI decision, the MAS-CA model framework is further improved. Thus makes the results more accurate and specific. The precision reaches 89.1%. 2)The model simulation results show that the urban landscape adjoins to the coastline and the traffic line in Jinshitan area. The urban land moves closer to the coast line. Urban land concentrated in the central region of the area, and obviously expanded into the surrounding area. Land use transformations were most heavily happened in the village of Putaogou, Hejuzi, Miaoshang, Shizijie.3) There are many factors affecting land use conversion. The distance to the coastline is the leading factor of the trend of urban landscape pattern transformation in Jinshitan area. Because of the ecological environment of the coastal area is easily destroyed in the coastal area, the government should take measures to find the perfect balance point between environment protection and economic development.

Key words: multi-agent, cellular automation, BDI decision model, land-use change, simulation

中图分类号: 

  • K903