地理科学 ›› 2018, Vol. 38 ›› Issue (1): 143-150.doi: 10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2018.01.016

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2003~2014年中国种植业产值增长及贡献因素分析

刘玉1(), 陈秧分2(), 高秉博1, 王国刚2   

  1. 1.北京农业信息技术研究中心,北京 100097
    2.中国农业科学院农业经济与发展研究所,北京 100081
  • 收稿日期:2016-12-11 修回日期:2017-03-25 出版日期:2018-01-10 发布日期:2018-01-10
  • 作者简介:

    作者简介:刘玉(1982-),男,河北无极人,博士,副研究员,主要从事区域农业与乡村发展、土地利用研究。E-mail:liuyu@nercita.org.cn

  • 基金资助:
    国家自然科学基金项目(41471115,41401193)、中央级公益性科研院所基本科研业务费(1610052016006)资助

Decomposition of the Increment of Planting Added-value in China in 2003-2014

Yu Liu1(), Yangfen Chen2(), Bingbo Gao1, Guogang Wang2   

  1. 1.Beijing Research Center for Information Technology in Agriculture, Beijing 100097, China
    2.Institute of Agricultural Economics and Development, Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences, Beijing 100081, China
  • Received:2016-12-11 Revised:2017-03-25 Online:2018-01-10 Published:2018-01-10
  • Supported by:
    National Natural Sciences Foundation of China (41471115,41401193), Central Public-interest Scientific Institution Basal Research Fund(1610052016006)

摘要:

基于统计数据,采用对数平均迪氏分解模型,从全国和省域2个尺度研究农作物播种面积、单位面积产值、增加值率、价格变化等因素对2003~2014年中国种植业增加值的影响方向与程度,以期为农业政策调整和差别化的种植业生产策略制定提供依据。结果表明: 12 a间种植业增加值增加了25 608.4亿元;农产品生产价格指数的提升、单位面积产值的快速增加叠加上农作物播种面积的稳定增长,导致研究期间种植业增加值的明显上升;种植业增加值呈现“北进中移”的发展趋势,长江中下游区、黄淮海区、西南区等省域的种植业增加值明显增加。 各因素对各省域种植业增加值的作用方向和作用强度呈现出一定的差异性,农产品价格指数的明显提升和单位面积产值的快速增加是大部分省域种植业增加值快速增长的主要推动力,而农作物播种面积的稳定增加也起到比较明显的正向促进作用;新疆和内蒙古农作物播种面积的正向效应明显,北京、上海和浙江农作物播种面积的负向效应明显;东部沿海省域和直辖市增加值率的负向效应比较明显。

关键词: 种植业增加值, 作物比例, 作物单产, 作物价格水平, 对数平均迪氏分解模型

Abstract:

In the context of tight resource and environmental constraints, it is an urgent task to realize the sustainable utilization of agricultural resources and the steady growth of planting industry. Since 2004, what is the growing trend of planting added-value in China? What are the main factors that lead to the change of the planting added-value in China at the country level and at province level respectively? And how much the influence? Based onthe statistical datathat sourced from "China agricultural products cost-benefit compilation" (2005-2015) and "China Rural Statistical Yearbook" (2005-2015), applied the logarithmic mean weigh division index method, in which direction and to what extent such factors as the sown area of crops, unit area yield, value-added rate and agricultural price fluctuation affect the added value of crop farming in China in national and provincial dimension from 2003 to 2014 are investigated in this article. The results show that: 1) The added value of crop farming has increased 25 608.4×108 yuan(RMB) over 12 years; the increase of agricultural price index, rapid growth of unit area yield and steady increase of sown area of crops have led to a significant increase in the added value of crop farming during the investigation; the added value of crop farming “transferred to central and northern China” and significantly rose in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River, Huang-Huai-Hai Region and some southwestern provinces. 2) The impact of each factor on the added value of crop farming differs in direction and extent; the significant increase of agricultural price and rapid growth of unit area yield constitute the main driving force for the rapid growth of added value of crop farming and the steady increase of sown area of crops also has significant, positive impact; the positive impact of sown area in Xinjiang and Inner Mongolia is significant, the negative impact of sown area in Beijing, Shanghai and Zhejiang is significant and the negative impact of added value rate in coastal provinces of eastern China and municipalities is also significant. The results provide references for the adjustment of agricultural policies and the formulation of differentiated planting strategy in China.

Key words: added value of planting, planting proportion, crop yield per unit area, crop price level, logarithmic mean weigh division index method

中图分类号: 

  • F129.9