地理科学 ›› 2020, Vol. 40 ›› Issue (12): 1990-1999.doi: 10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2020.12.005
湛东升1(), 虞晓芬1, 吴倩倩1, 金浩然2, 张文忠3
收稿日期:
2019-08-12
修回日期:
2019-12-23
出版日期:
2020-12-25
发布日期:
2021-01-09
作者简介:
湛东升(1987−),男,安徽寿县人,博士,副教授,主要从事城市与区域发展研究。E-mail:
Zhan Dongsheng1(), Yu Xiaofen1, Wu Qianqian1, Jin Haoran2, Zhang Wenzhong3
Received:
2019-08-12
Revised:
2019-12-23
Online:
2020-12-25
Published:
2021-01-09
摘要:
加快培育和发展住房租赁市场,是新时代中国住房制度改革的重要内容。基于2000年和2010年全国分县人口普查数据,运用GIS空间统计方法和空间计量模型,实证分析了中国337个地级以上城市的租赁住房发展区域差异与影响因素。研究表明:2000—2010年,中国租赁住房发展经历了“空间分散化”向“空间集聚”的发展态势,租赁住房发展高值区向长三角和珠三角城市群、西部地区的部分区域中心城市以及北京、厦门等经济发达城市更加靠拢;中国租赁住房发展和变化存在显著的空间集聚特征,且空间集聚趋势越来越强,而不同时期的中国租赁住房发展热点区分布有所变迁;空间计量模型表明,二三产业从业人员比例、住宅价格、租售比、外来人口比例、常住人口、65岁以上人口比例、家庭户规模和平均受教育年限等因素是影响2010年中国租赁住房发展区域差异的显著因素;而2000—2010年中国租赁住房发展变化主要与常住人口、外来人口比例、人均住房面积、65岁以上人口比例、平均受教育年限和少数民族比例等因素有关。
中图分类号:
湛东升, 虞晓芬, 吴倩倩, 金浩然, 张文忠. 中国租赁住房发展的区域差异与影响因素[J]. 地理科学, 2020, 40(12): 1990-1999.
Zhan Dongsheng, Yu Xiaofen, Wu Qianqian, Jin Haoran, Zhang Wenzhong. Exploring Regional Disparity and Influencing Factors of Rental House Development in China[J]. SCIENTIA GEOGRAPHICA SINICA, 2020, 40(12): 1990-1999.
Table 1
Influencing factors analysis of China’s rental house ratio and its change"
变量 | 解释变量 | 模型1_OLS | 模型1_SEM | 模型2_OLS | 模型2_SEM | |||||||
B | P值 | B | P值 | B | P值 | B | P值 | |||||
注:模型1因变量为2010年租赁住房比例,模型2因变量为2000—2010租赁住房比例变化,—为无此项。*,**,***分别表示在0.1、0.05和0.01置信水平下显著;未包括港澳台数据。 | ||||||||||||
经济成本因素 | 人均GDP对数 | ?0.013*** | 0.007 | ?0.004 | 0.449 | ?0.010 | 0.181 | ?0.006 | 0.370 | |||
二三产业从业人员比例 | 0.044*** | 0.007 | 0.028* | 0.099 | 0.040* | 0.095 | 0.036 | 0.158 | ||||
住宅价格对数 | 0.025*** | 0.000 | 0.031*** | 0.000 | ?0.005 | 0.598 | ?0.007 | 0.462 | ||||
租售比 | 1.994** | 0.020 | 2.480*** | 0.001 | ?0.634 | 0.614 | ?1.059 | 0.370 | ||||
社会需求因素 | 常住人口对数 | ?0.002 | 0.383 | ?0.006** | 0.032 | 0.014*** | 0.001 | 0.008** | 0.046 | |||
外来人口比例 | 0.635*** | 0.000 | 0.624*** | 0.000 | 0.410*** | 0.000 | 0.356*** | 0.000 | ||||
未婚比例 | 0.148*** | 0.006 | 0.028 | 0.644 | ?0.142* | 0.074 | ?0.117 | 0.188 | ||||
65岁以上人口比例 | ?0.008*** | 0.000 | ?0.007*** | 0.000 | ?0.010*** | 0.000 | ?0.011*** | 0.000 | ||||
家庭户规模 | ?0.039*** | 0.000 | ?0.035*** | 0.000 | ?0.013 | 0.215 | ?0.016 | 0.143 | ||||
文化心理因素 | 平均受教育年限 | ?0.014*** | 0.000 | ?0.014** | 0.000 | ?0.030*** | 0.000 | ?0.033*** | 0.000 | |||
人均住房面积 | 0.001*** | 0.008 | 0.000 | 0.660 | 0.002*** | 0.000 | 0.002*** | 0.000 | ||||
少数民族比例 | ?0.008 | 0.346 | ?0.016 | 0.141 | ?0.083*** | 0.000 | ?0.073*** | 0.000 | ||||
常数 | — | 0.225*** | 0.001 | 0.171** | 0.011 | 0.264*** | 0.009 | 0.372*** | 0.000 | |||
空间误差关联性 | LAMBDA | — | — | 0.620*** | 0.000 | — | — | 0.562*** | 0.000 | |||
模型拟合参数 | R2 | 0.919 | 0.939 | 0.610 | 0.691 | |||||||
Log likelihood | 731.14 | 764.7 | 599.45 | 626.51 | ||||||||
AIC | ?1436.29 | ?1503.4 | ?1172.89 | ?1227.02 | ||||||||
SC | ?1386.63 | ?1453.74 | ?1123.23 | ?1177.36 |
[1] | 甘犁, 尹志超, 贾男, 等. 中国家庭金融调查报告[M]. 成都: 西南财经大学出版社, 2012. |
Gan Li, Yin Zhichao, Jia Nan et al. Research Report of China Household Finance Survey[M]. Chengdu: Southwestern University of Finance and Economics Press, 2012. | |
[2] | 曾国安, 从昊, 雷泽珩, 等. 促进中国住房租赁市场发展的政策建议[J]. 中国房地产, 2017 (15): 3-14. |
Zeng Guoan, Cong Hao, Lei Zeheng, et al. On the problems causes and policy suggestions of China's housing rental market[J]. China Real Estate, 2017 (15): 3-14. | |
[3] | 赵奉军, 骆祖春. 使用成本、租买同权与住房租赁市场建设[J]. 中国房地产, 2018 (27): 10-20. |
Zhao Fengjun, Luo Zuchun. Use cost, the same right to rent and buy, and housing rental market construction[J]. China Real Estate, 2018 (27): 10-20. | |
[4] | 虞晓芬, 徐筱瑜. 中国城镇家庭住房质量时空差异分析[J]. 城市问题, 2018 (6): 29-35. |
Yu Xiaofen, Xu Xiaoyu. Temporal and spatial difference of China's housing conditions[J]. Urban Problems, 2018 (6): 29-35. | |
[5] |
Freeman L, Hamilton D. The changing determinants of inter-racial home ownership disparities: New York City in the 1990s[J]. Housing Studies, 2004, 19 (3): 301-323.
doi: 10.1080/0267303042000204269 |
[6] |
Myers D, Painter G, Yu Z, et al. Regional disparities in homeownership trajectories: Impacts of affordability, new construction, and immigration[J]. Housing Policy Debate, 2005, 16 (1): 53-83.
doi: 10.1080/10511482.2005.9521534 |
[7] |
刘望保, 闫小培, 曹小曙. 转型期中国城镇居民住房类型分化及其影响因素——基于CGSS(2005)的分析[J]. 地理学报, 2010, 65 (8): 949-960.
doi: 10.11821/xb201008006 |
Liu Wangbao, Yan Xiaopei, Cao Xiaoshu. Housing type variation and its influencing factors in transitional urban China: Based on analysis of CGSS 2005[J]. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2010, 65 (8): 949-960.
doi: 10.11821/xb201008006 |
|
[8] | 孙玉环, 张金芳. 中国家庭住房产权类型分化研究[J]. 数量经济技术经济研究, 2014, 31 (3): 89-103. |
Sun Yuhuan, Zhang Jinfang. Study on the housing property type differentiation of Chinese families[J]. The Journal of Quantitative & Technical Economics, 2014, 31 (3): 89-103. | |
[9] |
Lee C C, Ho Y M, Chiu H Y. Role of personal conditions, housing properties, private loans, and housing tenure choice[J]. Habitat International, 2016, 53: 301-311.
doi: 10.1016/j.habitatint.2015.11.016 |
[10] | Huang Youqin. The road to homeownership: A longitudinal analysis of tenure transition in urban China (1949–94)[J]. International Journal of Urban and Regional Research, 2010, 28 (4): 774-795. |
[11] |
Li Siming, Li Limei. Life course and housing tenure change in urban China: A study of Guangzhou[J]. Housing Studies, 2006, 21 (5): 653-670.
doi: 10.1080/02673030600807159 |
[12] | 刘望保, 闫小培. 转型期广州市生命历程与住房产权转换[J]. 地理研究, 2010, 29 (6): 1117-1128. |
Liu Wangbao, Yan Xiaopei. Life course and housing tenure transition in urban China: A case study of Guangzhou[J]. Geographical Research, 2010, 29 (6): 1117-1128. | |
[13] |
Huang Y, Clark W AV. Housing tenure choice in transitional urban China: A multilevel analysis[J]. Urban Studies, 2002, 39: 7-32.
doi: 10.1080/00420980220099041 |
[14] |
Rouwendal J, Nijkamp P. Homeownership and labour market behaviour: Interpreting the evidence[J]. Environment and Planning A, 2010, 42 (2): 419-433.
doi: 10.1068/a41343 |
[15] |
Huang Youqin. Renters’ housing behaviour in transitional urban China[J]. Housing Studies, 2003, 18 (1): 103-126.
doi: 10.1080/0267303032000076867 |
[16] |
李志刚. 中国大都市新移民的住房模式与影响机制[J]. 地理学报, 2012, 67 (2): 189-200.
doi: 10.11821/xb201202005 |
Li Zhigang. Housing conditions, patterns and mechanisms of second generation migrants in urban China: A case study of six large cities[J]. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2012, 67 (2): 189-200.
doi: 10.11821/xb201202005 |
|
[17] |
Linneman P, Megbolugbe I F, Wachter S M et al. Do borrowing constraints change U.S. homeownership rates?[J]. Journal of Housing Economics, 1997, 6 (4): 318-333.
doi: 10.1006/jhec.1997.0218 |
[18] | Hsieh W S, Lin S J. An analysis of taxation effect on house tenure choice[J]. Journal of Housing Studies, 2000, 9 (1): 1-17. |
[19] |
刘米娜. 中国城镇住房产权的区域差异分析——基于CGSS(2003)数据的实证研究[J]. 兰州学刊, 2009 (5): 114-119.
doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1005-3492.2009.05.030 |
Liu Mina. Regional disparity of housing tenure choice in urban China——Based on national comprehensive social survey data 2003[J]. Lanzhou Academic Journal, 2009 (5): 114-119.
doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1005-3492.2009.05.030 |
|
[20] |
Kim K, Jeon J S. Why do households rent while owning houses? Housing sub-tenure choice in South Korea[J]. Habitat International, 2012, 36 (1): 101-107.
doi: 10.1016/j.habitatint.2011.06.005 |
[21] |
Carter S. Housing tenure choice and the dual income household[J]. Journal of Housing Economics, 2011, 20 (3): 159-170.
doi: 10.1016/j.jhe.2011.06.002 |
[22] |
Eilbott P, Binkowski E S. The determinants of SMSA homeownership rates[J]. Journal of Urban Economics, 1985, 17 (3): 293-304.
doi: 10.1016/0094-1190(85)90052-X |
[23] |
Lauridsen J, Nannerup N, Skak M. Geographic and dynamic heterogeneity of home ownership[J]. Journal of Housing and the Built Environment, 2009, 24 (1): 1-17.
doi: 10.1007/s10901-008-9127-8 |
[24] |
陈宏胜, 李志刚. 快速城镇化下中国大城市房权分异研究:对广州的实证[J]. 地理学报, 2014, 69 (12): 1821-1832.
doi: 10.11821/dlxb201412008 |
Chen Hongsheng, Li Zhigang. Tenure-based housing segregation under rapid urbanization in post-reform urban China: A case study of Guangzhou[J]. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2014, 69 (12): 1821-1832.
doi: 10.11821/dlxb201412008 |
|
[25] | 陈颂, 汪鑫, 那鲲鹏, 等. 转型新时期上海房权空间分异格局和机制研究[J]. 城市发展研究, 2016, 23 (7): 18-23. |
Chen Song, Wang Xin, Na Kunpeng, et al. Study on tenure-based housing segregation in transitional Shanghai[J]. Urban Development Studies, 2016, 23 (7): 18-23. | |
[26] | 易成栋. 中国城镇家庭住房来源与产权的省际差异——基于2000年人口普查资料的分析[J]. 经济地理, 2006 (S1): 163-165. |
Yi Chengdong. Interprovincial disparity of urban housing source and tenure in China——A study based on the China 2000 census[J]. Economic Geography, 2006 (S1): 163-165. | |
[27] |
Tan T H. Determinants of homeownership in Malaysia[J]. Habitat International, 2008, 32 (3): 318-335.
doi: 10.1016/j.habitatint.2007.11.006 |
[28] |
潘建伟, 冯玉龙. 牧户与农户住房消费行为比较分析[J]. 消费经济, 2008, 24 (3): 71-74.
doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1007-5682.2008.03.019 |
Pan Jianwei, Feng Yulong. Comparative analysis of housing consumption behavior between herdsmen and farmers[J]. Consumer economy, 2008, 24 (3): 71-74.
doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1007-5682.2008.03.019 |
|
[29] | 国务院人口普查办公室. 中国2010年人口普查分县资料[M]. 北京: 中国统计出版社, 2012. |
Population Census Office under the State Council. Tabulation on the 2010 population census of the People’s Republic of China by county[M]. Beijing: China Statistics Press, 2012. | |
[30] | 国家统计局. 2011中国区域经济统计年鉴[M]. 北京: 中国统计出版社, 2012. |
National Bureau of Statistics. China statistical yearbook for regional economy 2011. Beijing: China Statistics Press, 2012. | |
[31] | 王劲峰, 廖一兰, 刘鑫. 空间数据分析教程(第二版)[M]. 北京: 科学出版社, 2019. |
Wang Jinfeng, Liao Yilan, Liu Xin. Spatial data analysis tutorial (2nd edition). Beijing: Science Press, 2019 | |
[32] |
Anselin L, Bera A K, Florax R, et al. Simple diagnostic tests for spatial dependence[J]. Regional Science and Urban Economics, 1996, 26 (1): 77-104.
doi: 10.1016/0166-0462(95)02111-6 |
[33] |
Li Z, Wu F. Tenure-based residential segregation in post-reform Chinese cities: A case study of Shanghai[J]. Transactions of the Institute of British Geographers, 2008, 33 (3): 404-419.
doi: 10.1111/j.1475-5661.2008.00304.x |
[34] |
Huang Youqin. The road to homeownership: A longitudinal analysis of tenure transition in urban China (1949-94)[J]. International Journal of Urban and Regional Research, 2004, 28 (4): 774-795.
doi: 10.1111/j.0309-1317.2004.00551.x |
[35] | 周江. 发展住房租赁需要的经济社会环境分析[J]. 中国房地产, 2015 (5): 27-30. |
Zhou Jiang. Analysis on the economic and social environment of housing rental development[J]. China Real Estate, 2015 (5): 27-30. | |
[36] |
张祚, 陈昆仑, 涂姗, 等. 中国城市居民住房来源构成与省际差异:基于“五普”与“六普”数据的分析[J]. 世界地理研究, 2014 (3): 52-63.
doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1004-9479.2014.03.006 |
Zhang Zuo, Chen Kunlun, Tu Shan, et al. Housing supplying sources and provincial differences of Chinese urban residents——Based on 5th and 6th Census Data Analysis[J]. World Regional Studies, 2014 (3): 52-63.
doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1004-9479.2014.03.006 |
|
[37] | Subhan S, Ahman E. The economic and demographic effects on housing tenure choice in Pakistan[J]. American International Journal of Contemporary Research, 2012, 2 (7): 15-24. |
[38] |
Logan J R, Fang Yiping, Zhang Zhanxin. Access to Housing in Urban China[J]. International Journal of Urban and Regional Research, 2009, 33 (4): 914-935.
doi: 10.1111/j.1468-2427.2009.00848.x |
[39] | 杨巧, 杨扬长. 租房还是买房:什么影响了流动人口住房选择?[J]. 人口与经济, 2018, 231 (6): 105-115. |
Yang Qiao, Yang Yangchang. Buy or rent: What effects the migrants’ housing choice?[J]. Population and Economics, 2018, 231 (6): 105-115. |
[1] | 张子昂, 保继刚. 多重距离对中国入境与出境旅游流的影响:基于组态的视角[J]. 地理科学, 2021, 41(1): 13-21. |
[2] | 刘云刚, 刘玄宇, 张争胜. 渔民视角下中国南海的领域构建[J]. 地理科学, 2020, 40(7): 1062-1071. |
[3] | 夏函, 张万顺, 彭虹, 李琳, 黄攀攀, 夏晶晶. 基于主体功能区规划的中国城市化地区生态功能评估[J]. 地理科学, 2020, 40(6): 882-889. |
[4] | 罗小龙, 曹姝君, 顾宗倪. 回流城镇化:中部地区城镇化开启新路径[J]. 地理科学, 2020, 40(5): 685-690. |
[5] | 吴媛媛, 宋玉祥. 中国人口老龄化空间格局演变及其驱动因素[J]. 地理科学, 2020, 40(5): 768-775. |
[6] | 张新林, 仇方道, 谭俊涛, 王长建. 中国工业生态效率时空分异特征及其影响因素解析[J]. 地理科学, 2020, 40(3): 335-343. |
[7] | 姜磊, 何世雄, 崔远政. 基于空间计量模型的氮氧化物排放驱动因素分析:基于卫星观测数据[J]. 地理科学, 2020, 40(3): 364-373. |
[8] | 姜洪强, 梅林, 杨立青. 中国淘宝店铺服务质量空间分异及影响因素[J]. 地理科学, 2020, 40(3): 428-436. |
[9] | 谭俊涛, 赵宏波, 刘文新, 张平宇, 仇方道. 中国区域经济韧性特征与影响因素分析[J]. 地理科学, 2020, 40(2): 173-181. |
[10] | 孙湘湘, 周小亮. 中国省级要素市场扭曲程度的时空格局及影响因素[J]. 地理科学, 2020, 40(2): 182-189. |
[11] | 张向敏, 罗燊, 李星明, 李卓凡, 樊勇, 孙健武. 中国空气质量时空变化特征[J]. 地理科学, 2020, 40(2): 190-199. |
[12] | 汪凡, 汪明峰. 基于格网的淘宝村集聚特征及影响因素分析[J]. 地理科学, 2020, 40(2): 229-237. |
[13] | 吕敏娟, 曹小曙. 黄土高原地区乡村性空间特征及其与可达性格局关系[J]. 地理科学, 2020, 40(2): 248-260. |
[14] | 李在军, 姜友雪, 秦兴方. 地方品质驱动新时期中国城市创新力时空演化[J]. 地理科学, 2020, 40(11): 1812-1821. |
[15] | 周伟, 赵艳, 宁煊. 京津冀城市群制造业结构变迁与空间集聚影响因素分析[J]. 地理科学, 2020, 40(11): 1921-1929. |
|