中国租赁住房发展的区域差异与影响因素

doi:10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2020.12.005

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

加快培育和发展住房租赁市场，是新时代中国住房制度改革的重要内容。基于2000年和2010年全国分县人口普查数据，运用GIS空间统计方法和空间计量模型，实证分析了中国337个地级以上城市的租赁住房发展区域差异与影响因素。研究表明：2000—2010年，中国租赁住房发展经历了“空间分散化”向“空间集聚”的发展态势，租赁住房发展高值区向长三角和珠三角城市群、西部地区的部分区域中心城市以及北京、厦门等经济发达城市更加靠拢；中国租赁住房发展和变化存在显著的空间集聚特征，且空间集聚趋势越来越强，而不同时期的中国租赁住房发展热点区分布有所变迁；空间计量模型表明，二三产业从业人员比例、住宅价格、租售比、外来人口比例、常住人口、65岁以上人口比例、家庭户规模和平均受教育年限等因素是影响2010年中国租赁住房发展区域差异的显著因素；而2000—2010年中国租赁住房发展变化主要与常住人口、外来人口比例、人均住房面积、65岁以上人口比例、平均受教育年限和少数民族比例等因素有关。

关键词: 租赁住房, 空间集聚, 空间计量模型, 地级以上城市, 中国

Abstract:

Accelerating rental house market development is an important part of housing system reform in China for the new era. Based on China counties census data in 2000 and 2010, this article empirically studies regional disparity and influencing factors of rental house development for 337 cities at prefecture level and above using GIS spatial statistical method and spatial econometric models. Results indicate: 1) From 2000 to 2010, rental house development in China has experienced a change trend from “spatial decentralization” to “spatial agglomeration”, and the high-value areas of rental house development are mainly located in urban agglomerations of theYangtze River Delta and the Pearl River Delta, several regional central cities in the Western region, and several economically developed cities like Beijing and Xiamen. 2) There is a significant spatial clustering for rental house development in China and its change in 2000—2010, and increased spatial clustering intensity is observed. As for local spatial autocorrelation, hot spots distribution of rental housing development in China varies by different period. 3) Spatial econometric model shows that impact factors of proportion of employees in the secondary and tertiary industries, housing prices, ratio of rent and sale, proportion of migrant population, permanent population, proportion of population over 65 years old, families size and average educational year all have a significant effect on regional disparity of rental housing development in 2010. Rental house development change in 2000—2010 are mainly related to permanent population, proportion of migrant population, per capita housing area, proportion of population over 65 years old, average educational year and proportion of ethnic minorities.

Key words: rental house, housing system reform, spatial econometrics models, cities at prefecture level and above, China

中图分类号:

F299.23

湛东升, 虞晓芬, 吴倩倩, 金浩然, 张文忠. 中国租赁住房发展的区域差异与影响因素[J]. 地理科学, 2020, 40(12): 1990-1999.

Zhan Dongsheng, Yu Xiaofen, Wu Qianqian, Jin Haoran, Zhang Wenzhong. Exploring Regional Disparity and Influencing Factors of Rental House Development in China[J]. SCIENTIA GEOGRAPHICA SINICA, 2020, 40(12): 1990-1999.

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变量	解释变量	模型1_OLS		模型1_SEM		模型2_OLS		模型2_SEM
变量	解释变量	B	P值	B	P值	B	P值	B	P值
注：模型1因变量为2010年租赁住房比例，模型2因变量为2000—2010租赁住房比例变化，—为无此项。，，**分别表示在0.1、0.05和0.01置信水平下显著；未包括港澳台数据。
经济成本因素	人均GDP对数	?0.013***	0.007	?0.004	0.449	?0.010	0.181	?0.006	0.370
	二三产业从业人员比例	0.044***	0.007	0.028*	0.099	0.040*	0.095	0.036	0.158
	住宅价格对数	0.025***	0.000	0.031***	0.000	?0.005	0.598	?0.007	0.462
	租售比	1.994**	0.020	2.480***	0.001	?0.634	0.614	?1.059	0.370
社会需求因素	常住人口对数	?0.002	0.383	?0.006**	0.032	0.014***	0.001	0.008**	0.046
	外来人口比例	0.635***	0.000	0.624***	0.000	0.410***	0.000	0.356***	0.000
	未婚比例	0.148***	0.006	0.028	0.644	?0.142*	0.074	?0.117	0.188
	65岁以上人口比例	?0.008***	0.000	?0.007***	0.000	?0.010***	0.000	?0.011***	0.000
	家庭户规模	?0.039***	0.000	?0.035***	0.000	?0.013	0.215	?0.016	0.143
文化心理因素	平均受教育年限	?0.014***	0.000	?0.014**	0.000	?0.030***	0.000	?0.033***	0.000
	人均住房面积	0.001***	0.008	0.000	0.660	0.002***	0.000	0.002***	0.000
	少数民族比例	?0.008	0.346	?0.016	0.141	?0.083***	0.000	?0.073***	0.000
常数	—	0.225***	0.001	0.171**	0.011	0.264***	0.009	0.372***	0.000
空间误差关联性	LAMBDA	—	—	0.620***	0.000	—	—	0.562***	0.000
模型拟合参数	R²	0.919		0.939		0.610		0.691
	Log likelihood	731.14		764.7		599.45		626.51
	AIC	?1436.29		?1503.4		?1172.89		?1227.02
	SC	?1386.63		?1453.74		?1123.23		?1177.36