以江苏省常州市新北区孟河镇为研究区,在土地利用格局模拟的回归建模中考虑驱动因子对土地利用格局影响的空间不稳定性,实现基于地理加权的回归分析模型,并与基于全局最小二乘法(OLS)的Logistic回归模型进行比较。研究结果表明,运用地理加权回归(GWR)的建模方法,不但可以获得更好的拟合优度和更高的拟合准确率,而且可以获得各驱动因子对土地利用格局影响的空间分异特征。同时,研究结果也可以为孟河镇及其类似地区的土地利用规划决策提供科学依据。
In this paper, Menghe Town in Changzhou City, Jiangsu Province was selected as a case to build a Geographically Weighted Regression analysis model for land use patterns simulation, which considers the spatial non-stationary of the impact on the land use patterns change of the driving factors. The simulation result was compared with OLS Logistic regression model. It is indicated that Geographically Weighted Regression model is not only able to improve simulation accuracy of regional land-use patterns, but also able to obtain spatial differentiation of the impact of the driving factors on land use patterns. Meanwhile, this study can also support the government decisions on land use management for Menghe Town and similar areas.
[1] 陈佑启,杨 鹏.国际上土地利用土地覆盖变化研究的新进展[J].经济地理,2001,21(1):95~100.
[2] 陈云浩,苏 伟.中国北方农牧交错带土地利用格局演变与模拟[J].中国科学(E辑:技术科学),2006,36(增刊):124~132.
[3] Verburg P H.Modeling the Spatial Dymatics of Regional Land Use:The CLUE-S Model[J].Environment Management,2002,30(3):391-405.
[4] 刘殿伟,宋开山,王丹丹,等.近50年来松嫩平原西部土地利用变化及驱动力分析[J].地理科学,2006,26(3):277~283.
[5] 曹小曙,马林兵,颜廷真.珠江三角洲交通与土地利用空间关系研究[J].地理科学,2007,27(6):743~748.
[6] 吴桂平,曾永年,邹 滨,等.AutoLogistic方法在土地利用格局模拟中的应用——以张家界市永定区为例[J].地理学报,2008,63(2):156~164.
[7] 汪小钦,王钦敏,励惠国,等.黄河三角洲土地利用/覆盖变化的微地貌区域分异[J].地理科学,2008,28(4):513~517.
[8] 谢花林,李 波.基于Logistic回归模型的农牧交错区土地利用变化驱动力分析[J].地理研究,2008,27(2):294~304.
[9] 胡文英,角媛梅,范 弢.哈尼梯田土地利用空间格局及其变化的信息图谱研究[J].地理科学,2008,28(3):419~424.
[10] Fotheringham A S,Chris Brunsdon,Martin Charlton. Geographically weighted regression[M].U·K·West Sussex: John Wiley & Sons Ltd,2002.
[11] Isik O,Pinarcioglu M M.Geographies of a silent transition:a geographically weighted regression approach to regional fertility differences in Turkey[J].European Journal of Population/Revue europeenne de demographie, 2006,22(4):399-421.
[12] 吴玉鸣,李建霞.中国区域工业全要素生产率的空间计量经济分析[J].地理科学,2006,26(4):385~391.
[13] IAli K,Partridge M D,Olfert M R.Can Geographically Weighted Regressions Improve Regional Analysis and Policy Making?[J].International Regional Science Review,2007,30(3):300.
[14] 徐文婷,吴炳方,颜长珍,等.用SPOT-VGT数据制作中国2000年度土地覆盖数据[J].遥感学报,2005,9(2):204~214.
[15] 罗罡辉.基于GWR模型的城市住宅地价空间结构研究.浙江大学博士学位论文,2007.
[16] Pontius R Gil,Schneider Laura C.Land-cover change model validation by an ROC method for the Ipswich watershed,Massachusetts,USA.Agriculture,Ecosystems and Environment,2001,85(1-3):239-248.
[17] K W Chau,Vincent S M Ma,Daniel C W Ho.The pricing of"luckiness" in the Apartment Market[J].Journal of Real Estate Literature,2001,9(1):31-40.
