基于行为地理学和经济学相关理论,依据农户调查数据,采用定量方法,对影响郊区农民迁移意愿的外在环境因素和内在自身因素进行了分析,构建了城市化进程中郊区农民的迁移意愿模型。模型表明:在市场经济环境下,农民的迁移行为选择是理性的,农民是否迁移取决于能否获得预期迁移收益的最大化,而农民的最大化收益又取决于其所处的外在环境因素和内在自身因素的综合作用。
Building upon the theory of behavioural geography and economy, by quantitative analysis on the firsthand information of the peasants in the suburb of Guangzhou, this paper researches the external and individual factors influencing the migration desire of peasants in the suburb.As a result, this paper presents a migration desire model of peasants in the suburbs during process of urbanization.According to the model, the external factors influencing the peasants’ migration to the urban include the income gap between cities and countries, working opportunities, the better educational, medical condition in the cities, the higher living cost and working risk in the cities, housing and collective welfare in the countries, rural living environment, the system of registered permanent residence, the social security system and farmland system and so on.Among the individual factors, the household collective melon-cutting, age, school children and family types are the main factors.As a whole, in market economy condition, the behavior of migration decision-making of peasants is rational, the willing of peasants to migrate or not lies on whether they could gain the maximal anticipative income or not, that rest with the integrative effect of the external and individual factors.
[1] 赵新平,周一星.改革以来中国城市化道路及城市化理论研究述评[J].中国社会科学,2002,2:132-138.
[2] 钟水映.人口流动与社会经济发展[M].武汉:武汉大学出版社,2000.
[3] 陈广汉.刘易斯的经济思想研究[M].广州:中山大学出版社,2000.
[4] 费景汉,拉尼斯.劳动剩余经济的发展:理论与对策[M].北京:经济科学出版社,1992.
[5] Todaro M P.A model of labor migration and urban unemployment in Less Developed Countries[J].American Economic Review,1969,59:138-48.
[6] Stark O,Levhari D.On migration and risk in LDCs[J].Economy Development and Cultural Changes,1982,31:191-196.
[7] Derek Byerlee.Rural-Urban migration in africa:theory,policy and research implications[J].International Migration Review,1974,8(4):543-566.
[8] 辜胜阻,简新华主编.当代中国人口流动与城市化[M].武汉:武汉大学出版社,1994.
[9] 张再生.市场经济条件下乡城人口迁移机制与对策研究[J].人口学刊,1996,2:3~8.
[10] 周 皓.新形势下我国乡-城迁移流持续原因新探[J].人口研究,1998,22(4):46~50.
[11] 谭文兵,黄凌翔.农村人口城市迁移的动力机制[J].城市问题,2002,2:14~16.
[12] Yaohui Zhao.Labor migration and earnings differences:the case of rural China [J].Economic Development and Cultural Change,1999,47(4):767-78.
[13] 赵耀辉.中国农村劳动力流动及教育在其中的作用——以四川省为基础的研究[J].经济研究,1997,2:37~42.
[14] 王桂新,高 慧.发达地区农村人口城市化个人影响因素之分析——以浙江省柯桥、柳市两镇为例[J].人口研究,2001,26(1):52~58.
[15] 蒋乃华,封 进.农村城市化进程中的农民意愿考察——对江苏的实证分析[J].管理世界,2002,2:24~29.
[16] 黄祖辉,陈欣欣.沿海经济发达地区农户迁移行为的影响因素分析[J].浙江社会科学,2002,6:9~13.
[17] 卫宝成,胡慧洪.城市化过程中相关行为主体迁移意愿的分析——对浙江省海宁市农村居民的调查[J].中国社会科学,2003,5:39~49.
[18] 吴秀敏,林 坚.城市化进程中西部地区农户的迁移意愿分析——对成都市农户的实证研究[J],中国农村经济,2005,4:27~33.
[19] 张文奎.行为地理学研究的基本理论问题[J].地理科学,1990,10(2):159~167.
