应用水文模型HEC-HMS模拟分析太湖上游西苕溪流域未来土地利用/覆盖变化对不同重现期暴雨下洪水过程的影响。结果表明,城市化进程中研究区土地利用变化将导致径流总量和洪峰流量增加,而建设用地扩展幅度则直接影响径流总量和洪峰流量增加的程度;同时发现,随着暴雨重现期的增加,研究区土地利用变化对洪水过程的影响逐渐减小;此外,研究区土地利用变化及其水文效应具有显著的空间差异性,以靠近城市中心的子流域响应最为显著。
Taking the Xitiaoxi Basin in the upstream of Taihu Lake Watershed as a case, this study applied, rainfall-runoff model HEC-HMS to quantitatively predict the influence of future land use changes on the storm-runoff generation under designing rainfall events associated with different recurrence intervals.The results indicate that in the course of urbanization, the generated future land use scenarios result in obvious increases in peak discharge and total runoff, and the magnitude of their impacts relates to the expansion rate of built-up area.And the sensitivity of hydrologic response to land use change tends to increase as the recurrence interval of the rainfall events decreases.Furthermore, remarkable spatial variations of the land use changes and its impacts can be observed at the subbasin level, and the most sensitive subbasin is identified to be located near the center of the urban area.
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