以吉林省为例,在假设历年采暖建筑物标准室温为18℃和不同建筑物热工特性相同的前提下,认为在一定建筑设计标准下,直接影响严寒和寒冷地区城镇住宅采暖耗能的因子主要有采暖强度、城镇人口数、人均住宅建筑面积。以1978年城镇人口数、城镇人均住宅建筑面积为经济资料的基准值,以1971~2000年采暖强度的30a平均值作为气候条件的基准值,得到采暖耗能基准值,进而计算1979年开始的逐年采暖耗能变化值,得出无论气候变暖或变冷,由于城镇人口、人均住宅建筑面积不断增加,使各地采暖耗能增加。气候是目前为止唯一可以起到降低能耗作用的因子。

Based on average daily temperature data and socio-economic statistical data, such as urban population and per captia housing area in Jinlin Province, influence factor analysis of urban residential heating energy consumption in severe cold and cold regions in China, a case of Jilin Province, is conducted. Two hypotheses are made first. The first one is that indoor temperature is always 18℃ in urban residential buildings. The second is that architecture thermal performance is same. Based on hypotheses above, some conclusions are drawed: Under given architecture design standard, three factors, including heating intensity, urban population, per capita urban housing area, affect directly urban residential heating energy consumption in severe cold and cold regions. Heating intensity is calculated by using degree-day method. While calculating heating intensity, two parameters are very important. One is the temperature which is 5℃ to determine the start and end dates for heating and the other is the base tmeprature which is 18℃ to calculate the heating intensity. These two temperature parameters are determined by"Code for Design of Heating, Ventilation and Air Conditioning (GB50019-2003)" and "Energy Conservation Design Standard for New Heating Residential Buildings (JCJ26-95)", respectively. In order to analyze changes of energy consumption for heating, the base energy consumption for heating is defined first. Urban population and per capita urban housing area in 1978 are considered as base socio-economics values. The average value of heating intensity during 1971-2000 is considered as base climatic value. The base energy consumption for heating is determined by the base urban population, base per capita urban housing area and base heating intensity. Based on the base energy consumption for heating, annual variation of energy consumption and contribution rates of three factors affecting energy consumption for urban residential heating are analyzed. In general, amount of heating energy consumption tends to increase inevitably because population and per capita housing area increase continuously. Among three factors, climate is the only one, which can act to save energy. In severe cold and cold region (such as Jilin Province), contribution of per capita urban housing area is the biggest to the increase of urban residential heating energy consumption.