充分利用系统动力学模型(System Dynamics,SD)在情景模拟和宏观因素反映上的优势和元胞自动机模型(Cellular Automata,CA)在微观土地利用空间格局反映上的优势,构建一个耦合SD和CA的城镇土地扩展模拟模型,并以江苏省南通地区为例,对模型的实证应用做了进一步的验证。结果表明,这种耦合模型不仅能够对研究区域未来城镇土地扩展数量给予一个比较好的预测,而且还对其空间分布效果做了一定精度上的模拟,这使得城市规划在土地利用预测方面有一个相对科学的依据。
The system dynamics model which is called SD for short has an advantage on describing prospective sights and predicting urban land growth macroscopically, while the cellular automata which is called CA for short has an advantage on simulating urban land expansion microscopically. So this paper integrates their macro and micro advantages, designs an coupling model for the urban land expansion, and also does a case study in Nantong City of Jiangsu Province. The results show that this coupling model can not only predict a good amount on urban land growth in time, but also simulate urban land expansion with a relatively precision in space, thus urban planning has a relatively scientific basis on analyzing urban land expansion in future.
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