城市灾害风险评估作为城市灾害风险管理的核心,已经成为灾害研究的热点问题。鉴于目前上海城市灾害特征,提出城市灾害综合风险评估的理念,从致灾因子、历史灾情、暴露-易损性和抗灾恢复力等方面选取指标,构建了上海城市灾害综合风险评估指标体系和评估模型。以上海市19个区县进行灾害综合风险评估实证研究,依据评估结果对上海市灾害综合风险特征及其空间分布规律进行深入探讨,为上海城市灾害管理提供科学依据。
With global climate change and rapid urbanization process, disaster has been a great challenge of development of Shanghai.Risk assessment,as one of the vital tools of risk management,is considered much more important than ever before. In view of characteristic of disaster of Shanghai, this paper puts forward the concept of urban-disaster composite risk,and chooses indexes to build index systems from hazards,historic disasters,exposure & fragibility,resilience ability. And then taking the 19 localities of Shanghai as research examples, based on the result from above research,this paper analyzes the characteristic and distribution of urban-disaster composite risk of Shanghai,and give reasonable suggestions for government.
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