以2002年为例,采用投入产出模型,从最终需求的角度对中国出口贸易引起的碳排放(包括直接和间接排放)进行了评估。结果表明,2002年中国为满足对外出口需求而在国内和国外引起的碳排放约288.22~330.49 MtC,其中国内出口排放261.19 MtC,约占当年国内一次能源消费碳排放量的23.45%;大部分部门的出口碳排放主要是由国内排放所贡献,进口再出口排放对总出口排放的平均贡献率在9.38%~20.97%之间。中国单位产值出口的平均碳排放为0.093~0.106 kgC,其中0.084 kgC是在国内排放;碳密集部门多集中于重化工业、交通运输和部分轻工业。将来一方面,中国不宜增加高耗能行业的出口;另一方面,国外发达国家也应积极向中国等发展中国家转让先进生产技术,以减少全球温室气体排放,实现全球减排行动中公平与效率的双赢。

International trade is also an important factor influencing the greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions of an economy. As the continuously increasing of export trade, a part of Chinese carbon emissions had been used to produce exported goods satisfying the consumption demands outside China. The foreign consumers, especially from developed countries, have also the responsibility to Chinese carbon emissions. Knowing about the situation of carbon emissions embodied in Chinese international trade clearly is important in responding the international negotiation and trying to win more development rights in the future. In view of this, based on the input-output table (2002) with 122 sectors and 44 sectoral energy consumption data, this paper estimated the national and sectoral carbon emissions embodied in Chinese exporting trade from the view of final demands. In order to understand the carbon emissions embodied in exports accurately, the imported input was distinguished from domestic input and, the emission imported and later exported was also included in this paper. The results showed the production of Chinese exports required the carbon emission generation of 288.22-330.49 MtC within and outside China, most of it (261.19 MtC) being generated in domestic production processes. In this way, the domestic production of goods for exporting accounted for about 23.45% of Chinese total emissions from the consumption of primary energy in 2002. For most sectors, over 80% of their exported carbon pollution was generated in domestic production. Exported carbon emissions from the manufacture of communication and electronic equipment, the one of raw chemical materials and chemical products, and the one of textile were most significant in all industries, and their exported emissions generated in domestic production processes were also the biggest in all sectors of China. Looking at the ratios of imported and later exported emissions to the total exported emissions in the minimum scenario, there were 13 sectors whose ratio values were higher than the average of Chinese economy, and the sectors mining and processing of ferrous metal ores, production and supply of water, production and supply of electric power and heat power showed the highest values. However, in all sectors, the manufacture of raw chemical materials and chemical products, manufacture of communication and electronic equipment, smelting and pressing of ferrous metals, extraction of petroleum and natural gas had the highest imported and later exported emission. The production of Chinese exports per unit output generated about 0.093-0.106 kgC in China and abroad, 0.084 kgC of which was generated in domestic production. The most significant carbon-intensive sectors were mining and processing of ferrous metal ores, production and supply of electric power and heat power, and production and supply of water. Given the pressure of carbon emission reduction and national energy security, it is not appropriate for China to increase the exports of goods with higher energy consumption, and it is necessary to improve the production technology to decrease the intensities of sectoral energy consumption in the future; On the other hand, the developed countries should actively provide advanced production technologies to China and other developing countries to reduce global emissions of GHG, which will be helpful to get a win-win situation of equality and efficiency in the action of global carbon emission reduction.