针对长三角旅游发展战略选择上的不同观点,根据从长三角15个城市1999~2008年历年发布的经济和社会发展公报中收集的各市旅游收入和GDP数据,借鉴经济学中衡量社会收入分配均衡程度的基尼系数方法,设定了城市旅游重要度、区域旅游收入首要度、区域旅游收入集中度和城市旅游经济密度等4 个指数进行统计分析,从长三角城市群区域旅游收入首要度的降低、集中度的减弱、上海以外其他城市旅游重要度的上升、各城市旅游经济密度的普遍增加和逐步接近,揭示了长三角城市群旅游经济的分散化和均质化趋势。并进而分析了这一趋势的现实动因。

In terms of different points of view in the strategic choice of Yangtze Delta tourism development, this paper makes a statistical analysis on such indicators as city tourism importance degree, regional tourist income primacy degree, regional tourist income concentration degree and city tourism economic density, by the use of data on tourist income and GDP of all Yangtze Delta cities in economic and social development over the years from 1999-2000. It exploites Gini Coefficient approach to measure the evenness of social income distribution from economics, thus finds that there is a decrease in its regional tourist income primacy degree and concentration degree, an increase in tourism primacy degree of all cities except Shanghai, a prevalent increase and growing approximation among tourism economic densities of all cities, reveals decentralization and homogenization of tourism economy of Yangtze delta city group, and further analyzes the cause of dynamics. Based on these tendencies, tourism development strategy of Yangtze delta should be to transfer from ring model centering on Shanghai to polycentric networked model and give priority to the development of waterscape resources, tourism diversity and ecotourism as well.