区域洪水灾害风险评价是洪灾评估和管理的重要内容。依据灾害系统理论,利用GIS方法,综合分析了渭河下游对洪水灾害有影响的降水、地形、水系、过境洪水和防洪工程等自然致灾力和孕灾环境的影响度,以及承灾体遭受不同强度洪水可能损失程度的易损性影响度,运用层次分析法和因子叠加法,从自然和社会属性两个方面对洪灾风险进行了综合评价和分析。结果表明:研究区洪水灾害风险整体上以渭河下游干流为中心逐渐向两边递减,即离主干河流越近,风险越高,反之越低;从行政区划上来看,西安市城区和临潼区基本处于高风险区,而华县、华阴市和潼关县基本处于低风险区。
Regional flood disaster assessment is an important content for flood disaster estimate and management. According to disaster system theory, using GIS method, through comprehensive analyzing some impact degrees of factors to flood disaster, such as rainfall, terrain, water systems, passing flood and flood prevention projects, as well as impact degrees of the factors to potential losing extents when encountering flood disaster, ecological risks of flood disaster were assessed and analyzed synthetically by applying to analytic hierarchy process and factorial overlay methods from two sides of natural and social attribute. The results show that risk of flood disaster declines gradually from center to two sides around main stream of the lower reaches in the Weihe River as a whole. That is, the closer to main stream, the higher the risk. From administrative divisions, Xi’an City and Lintong District are in high risk zones, Hua County, Huayin City and Tongguan County are in low risk zones.
[1] 左大康.现代地理学业辞典[M].北京:商务印书馆,1990.
[2] 魏一鸣,杨存建,金菊良,等.洪水灾害评估与分析的综合集成方法[J].水科学进展,1999,10(1):25~30.
[3] 许有鹏,李立国,蔡国民,等.GIS技术下中小流域洪水风险图系统研究[J].地理科学,2004,24(4):452~457.
[4] Correia F N, Fordham M, Bernardo F, et al. Flood hazard assessment management: Interface with the public[J]. Water Resources Management, 1998,12(3):209-227.
[5] Erich J P. Flood Risk and Flood Management[J]. Journal of Hydrology, 2002,267:2-11.
[6] Shanker K S, Aminuddin A G, Mohd S S, et al. Flood risk mapping for Pari River incorporating s ediment transport[J]. Environment Modelling & Software, 2003,18:119-130.
[7] Zerger. Examining GIS decision utility for natural hazard risk modelling[J]. Environmental Modelling & Software, 2002,17:287-294.
[8] 魏一鸣,金菊良,周成虎,等.洪水灾害评估体系研究[J].灾害学,1997,12(3):1~5.
[9] 李辉霞,蔡永立.太湖流域主要城市洪涝灾害生态风险评价[J].灾害学,2002,17(3):91~96.
[10] 杜 鹃,何 飞,史培军.湘江流域洪水灾害综合风险评价[J].自然灾害学报,2006,15(6):39~44.
[11] 张 会,张继全,韩俊山.基于GIS技术的洪涝灾害风险评估与区划研究[J].自然灾害学报,2005,14(6):141~145.
[12] 尹义星,许有鹏,陈 莹.基于复杂性测度的中国洪灾受灾面积变化研究[J].地理科学,2008,28(2):241~246.
[13] 周德民,程进强,熊立华.基于DEM的洪泛平原湿地数字水系提取研究[J].地理科学,2008,28(6):776~781.
[14] 李子君,李秀彬.近45年来降水变化和人类活动对潮河流域年径流量的影响[J].地理科学,2008,28(6):809~818.
[15] 傅文杰.GIS支持下基于支持向量机的滑坡危险性评价[J].地理科学,2008,28(6):843~846.
[16] 崔林丽,史 军,周伟东.上海极端气温变化特征及其对城市化的响应[J].地理科学,2009,29(1):93~97.
[17] 陈 莹,许有鹏,尹义星.土地利用／覆被变化下的暴雨径流过程模拟分析——以太湖上游西苕溪流域为例[J].地理科学,2009,29(1):117~123.
[18] 张丽娟,李文亮,张冬有.基于信息扩散理论的气象灾害风险评估方法[J].地理科学,2009,29(2):250~254.
[19] 赵景波,王长燕.兰州黄河高漫滩沉积与洪水变化研究[J].地理科学,2009,29(3):409~414.
[20] 殷 杰,尹占娥,许世远.上海市灾害综合风险定量评估研究[J].地理科学,2009,29(3):450~454.
[21] 张琼华,赵景波.近50 a渭河流域洪水成因分析及防治对策[J].中国沙漠,2006,26(1):117~121.
[22] 李景宜.陕西渭河下游湿地环境风险因素分析[J].地理科学,2007,27(3):371~375.
[23] 詹小国,祝国瑞,文余源.平原地区洪灾风险评价的GIS方法研究[J].长江流域资源与环境,2003,12(4):388~392.
[24] 唐 川,朱大奎.基于GIS技术的泥石流风险评价研究[J].地理科学,2002,22(3):300~304.
[25] 唐 川,张 军,万石云,等.基于高分辨率遥感影像的城市泥石流灾害损失评估[J].地理科学,2006,26(3):358~363.
[26] 中国国家统计局.陕西统计年鉴(2003)[M].北京:中国统计出版社,2004.
