现有的许多选址模型研究,主要集中在对选址算法的改进,而忽略了城市作为复杂地理系统所具备的不确定性和动态发展性对选址结果的影响。这往往导致最终的选址结果在设施投入使用后,无法满足新的需求甚至出现不适应新环境的情况。本文将基于GeoCA(地理元胞自动机)的城市扩张模型引入到传统的Location-allocation选址模型中,构建一个动态的选址模型框架,探索如何将选址结果建立在动态的、科学的城市形态预测基础上,促使选址结果更具有客观性、先见性和更符合可持续发展观,这也正是本研究的重要意义所在。同时,框架中的许多子模型都能够单独被优化,具有高度的可伸缩性,能够自适应于特定区域的选址要求。
Most research papers of the site selection model, such Location-allocation, focus on the algorithm itself, while ignoring the influences of the city, as a complex geographic system which has uncertainties and will develop dynamically. Therefore, it’s quite possible that the results of such models will dissatisfy the new demands, or even be incompatible with the new situation after the utilities located have been put into service. Based on the GeoCA urban land use simulation model, this paper establishes a new dynamic Location-allocation model so that the selection result has characteristics of extension, forecast and sustainable development. Besides, all the sub models, e.g. the population forecasting model, of this dynamic site selection model are able to be optimized alone. Hence, this model has a highly flexibility and is competent for special region’s requirements.
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