围绕如何确保2010年1.2×108 hm2的耕地保有量,运用经验模态分解方法分析中国耕地保有量的趋势作为建模依据,构建了中国耕地保有量的动力预测模型,并对中国耕地保有总量现状进行了分析和预测。从建设占用、耕地补充、生态退耕、农业结构调整和灾害损毁五个方面进行单要素分析,在数值模拟的基础上提出高、中、低三种方案,研究结果表明:只有在各方面严格把守的前提下,才有可能实现目标保有量,并且科学的确定生态退耕的数量具有关键意义。
The total area of farmland is decreasing at a rather high speed in recent years in China. The major reasons include: constructional land use, ecologic comeback, agricultural structure adjustment, catastrophic and so on, which will badly affect the food safety in China. By a new national plan, the insurance quantity of cultivated land should be 1.2108hm2 by the year of 2010.The author analyzs that the number of farmland in China will decrease in short time based on the intrinsic model function,and advances several dynamic equations on arable land change, brings forward three projects based on numerical simulation . The result of the study shows: we must adopt the most severe measures, for the aim to nsure quantity of cultivated land of 1.2108hm2. At last, the author presented three suggestions based on the numerical simulation results, which are to enhance the mprehensive plan of land use, to strengthen economical use of land, and to consolidate the management of land use.
[1] 孙 娴,林振山,孙 燕.我国耕地总量的动力预测及其建议[J] .自然资源学报.2005.3,20(2):200~205.
[2] 熊得惠.贵州省黔南州耕地保有量研究. [J] .资源开发与市场.2004,20(4):292~294.
[3] 范少冉.耕地保有量外部型探讨. [J].国土资源科技管理.2005,(4):25~33.
[4] 张正峰,陈百明.土地整理潜力分析[J].自然资源学报.2002,17(6):664~669.
[5] 杨 红,陈百明,高 永,等.城市土地整理理论与实践探析[J].地理科学进展,2005.5,24(3):50~57.
[6] 吴 林,张鸿辉,王慎敏,等.基于栅格数据空间分析的土地整理生态评价——以江西省南康市凤岗镇为例[J].中国土地科学.2005,19(3):24~28.
[7] Huang N E, Shen Z, Long S R,et al. The empirical mode decomposition and the Hilbert spectrum for nonlinear and non-stationary series analysis. Proc R Soc Lond A, 1998, 454:899-995.
[8] Huang N E, Shen Z, Long S R. A new view of nonlinear water waves: the Hilbert spectrum. Annual Review of Fluid Mechanics, 1999, 31:417-457.
[9] 林振山,汪曙光.近四百年北半球气温变化的分析:EMD方法的应用[J].热带气象学报,2004,20(2):90~96.
[10] 邓拥军,王 伟,钱成春,等.EMD方法及Hilbert变换中边界问题的处理[J].科学通报,2001,46(3):257~263.
[11] 丁忠义,郝晋民,李新波,等.农业产业结构调整中土地利用结构及其与粮食产量关系分析-以河北省曲周为例[J]. 资源科学,2005.7,27(4):95~99
[12] 唐 健,卢艳霞.我国耕地保护制度研究——理论与实证(1)[M].北京:中国大地出版社,2006.30~31.
[13] 唐 健.我国耕地保护制度与政策研究(1)[M].北京:中国社会科学出版社,2006.39~42.
