论文

中国耕地保有量的动力预测模型及对策

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  • 1. 南京大学国土资源与旅游学系, 江苏 南京 210093;
    2. 南京师范大学地理科学学院, 江苏 南京 210097
孙 燕(1981- ),女,山东淄博人,博士研究生,主要从事土地利用与规划、资源-环境方面的研究。E-mail: sunyan_sd@163.com

收稿日期: 2007-06-19

  修回日期: 2007-11-24

  网络出版日期: 2008-05-20

基金资助

国家自然科学基金项目(40371020)资助。

Dynamic Model and Measures of Total Area of Farmland in China

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  • 1. Department of Land Resources and Tourism Sciences, Nanjing University, Nanjing, Jiangsu 210093;
    2. School of Geography Science, Nanjing Normal University, Nanjing, Jiangsu 210097

Received date: 2007-06-19

  Revised date: 2007-11-24

  Online published: 2008-05-20

摘要

围绕如何确保2010年1.2×108 hm2的耕地保有量,运用经验模态分解方法分析中国耕地保有量的趋势作为建模依据,构建了中国耕地保有量的动力预测模型,并对中国耕地保有总量现状进行了分析和预测。从建设占用、耕地补充、生态退耕、农业结构调整和灾害损毁五个方面进行单要素分析,在数值模拟的基础上提出高、中、低三种方案,研究结果表明:只有在各方面严格把守的前提下,才有可能实现目标保有量,并且科学的确定生态退耕的数量具有关键意义。

本文引用格式

孙燕, 林振山, 金晓斌, 周寅康, 徐健 . 中国耕地保有量的动力预测模型及对策[J]. 地理科学, 2008 , 28(3) : 337 -342 . DOI: 10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2008.03.337

Abstract

The total area of farmland is decreasing at a rather high speed in recent years in China. The major reasons include: constructional land use, ecologic comeback, agricultural structure adjustment, catastrophic and so on, which will badly affect the food safety in China. By a new national plan, the insurance quantity of cultivated land should be 1.2108hm2 by the year of 2010.The author analyzs that the number of farmland in China will decrease in short time based on the intrinsic model function,and advances several dynamic equations on arable land change, brings forward three projects based on numerical simulation . The result of the study shows: we must adopt the most severe measures, for the aim to nsure quantity of cultivated land of 1.2108hm2. At last, the author presented three suggestions based on the numerical simulation results, which are to enhance the mprehensive plan of land use, to strengthen economical use of land, and to consolidate the management of land use.

参考文献

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