首先从城市文化遗产景观所处背景环境和存在状况的两个角度,构建城市文化遗产景观风险性评估体系和评估模型,应用GIS开发佛山历史文化地理信息系统,并实现城市文化遗产景观风险性的评估功能。通过对1994年和2005年佛山的城市文化遗产景观在环境风险、发展风险和遗产状况的分析表明:大气环境在环境风险中贡献较大,传统建城区的大气环境风险性呈下降趋势,而其周边地区增强;发展风险总体上增加,但随着缓冲区不同,其中土地利用变化带来的风险性最为显著;佛山城市文化遗产景观风险性随着缓冲半径有不同的变化趋势,分析认为应该建立适宜的文化缓冲区。

Being a major research object of cultural geography, urban cultural heritage landscape goes together with urban environment, but its vulnerability and risk are increasing with urban development, population increasing and environment changing. However research on risk of urban cultural heritage landscape was lagged behind. Foshan City is chosen as the study area. As one of the famous historical cities in economically developed region, Foshan is changing greatly in natural and sociocultural environment. Thus it is most important to evaluate the risk of urban cultural heritage landscapes ought from change of environmental setting. Centering around the two points of the environment background and existing status of urban cultural heritage landscape, the paper sets up a system and a model of risk evaluation, and has designed and exploited FSHCGIS(Historical Cultural GIS of Foshan)based on VB.Net and MapObjects, simultaneously achieves evaluation function to the risk of urban cultural heritage landscape. By analyzing the risks of development, environment and heritage status on urban cultural heritage landscape from 1994 to 2005, the authors expound the characters of risk difference of urban culture heritage landscape in different blocks of Foshan. 1) Risk of atmosphere environment contributes more in environmental risk, and it shows downtrend in traditional urban blocks, but boosts up in the surrounding area of traditional urban blocks. If elaborating on the risk difference between various atmosphere pollution indexes, we find the risks from SO₂ and NOx evidently increase, and acid rain has become the main risk of urban cultural heritage landscape here in Foshan. 2) Developmental risk increases totally, but in the different buffer area risk change of close distance is very little in the old urban area, that of middle and farther distance tones up, and the risk brought from change of land utilization is the more prominent among all developmental indexes. 3) The risk of urban cultural heritage landscape shows distinct change trend along with different buffer radiuses. The article considers that the radius of cultural buffer area lies commonly between 50m to 200m based on analyzing the trend curves of RC.