选用东北地区剔除迁站次数较多的观测站后的74个代表站1959~2002年44年的月平均最高气温和最低气温观测数据,建立了东北地区近44年来的年、四季最高气温和最低气温序列。在所建序列基础上,分析了东北地区最高气温和最低气温的年和季节变化规律;采用Mann-Kendall和Yamamoto方法对经过滑动平均的最高气温和最低气温序列进行了突变分析。计算了所有测站的年和各个季节最高气温和最低气温的趋势系数,分析增温趋势在各季节的地域分布特征。结果表明,近44年最高气温和最低气温均表现为明显的增温趋势,最低气温的增温趋势明显高于最高气温,前者的年气候倾向率为后者的2倍; 最高气温和最低气温都表现为冬季增温最强,春季次之,秋季最弱;在研究区域的中心部位,即内蒙古、吉林和黑龙江三省交界处有一范围较大且稳定的最低气温强增温区;最高气温和最低气温的突变点发生时段基本一致,强突变发生在80年代后期,较弱的一次发生在70年代初。
The date of monthly mean maximum and minimum temperature are obtained in 74 stations in Northeast China, after minimizing the posssible effect of urban heat island from 1959-2002. The time series of maximum and minimum temperature for the area are got by averaging the 74 station values for the period. The temperature time series were further analyzed for the change characteristics on year and season in the area. The climate jumps of annual extreme temperature series, by dealing with slippage, were tested by both Mann-Kendall and Yamamoto method during the past 44 years in Northeast.The coefficients of extreme temperature trends were calculated in all stations and all seasons, and the characteristics of terrain distribution of increasing trend were analysed in each season. The results show that asymmetry is detectable in all seasons.Though both maximum and minimum temperature is increasing for the period. Tmin increase more than Tmax in all parts of Northeast China. The former doubles the latter. Their increases are biggest in winter, second in spring, least in autumn.In the center, there is a strong increasing temperature area, bigger and steadier in range.
[1] International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC),climate change 1992. The supplementary report to IPCC scientific assessment[M]. Cambridge University Press.1992.142-152.
[2] 陈隆勋,邵永宁.近40年中国气候变化的初步分析[J].应用气象学报.1991,2:164~173.
[3] 孙凤华,任国玉,赵春雨,等.中国东北地区及不同典型下垫面的气温异常变化分析[J]. 地理科学,2005,25(2):167~171.
[4] 孙 力,安 刚,丁 立,等.中国东北地区夏季降水异常的气候学分析[J].气象学报,2000, 58(l): 70~82.
[5] 孙 力,安 刚,丁 立. 中国东北地区夏季旱涝的分析研究[J].地理科学,2002,22(3):311~316.
[6] 孙 力,安 刚. 北太平洋海温异常对中国东北地区旱涝的影响[J].气象学报,2003,61(3):346~353.
[7] Cao H X,Mitchell J B F,Lavery J R. Simulated diurnal range and variability of surface temperature in a global climate model for present and doubled CO2 climates[J]. J Climate. 1992,5(9)920-943.
[8] 刘晓东,张敏锋,惠晓英.青藏高原当代气候变化特征及其对温室效应的响应[J].地理科学,1998,18(2):113~121.
[9] 闫敏华,陈泮勤,邓 伟,等.三江平原气候变暖的进一步认识:最高和最低气温的变化[J].生态环境,2005,14(2):151~156.
[10] 翟盘茂,任福民.中国近40年最高最低温度变化[J].气象学报,1997,55(4):418~429.
[11] 江志红,丁裕国.近百年上海气候变暖过程的再认识——平均温度与最低、最高温度的对比[J]. 应用气象学报,1999,10(2):151~159.
[12] Karl T R, Jones P D, Knight R W, et a1.A New Perspective on Recent Global Warming: Asymmetric of Maximum and Minimum Temperature[J].Bulletin of American Meteorological Society,1993,74(6):1007-1023.
[13] 闫敏华,邓 伟,陈泮勤. 三江平原气候突变分析[J]. 地理科学,2003,23(6):661~667.
[14] 何云玲,张一平,刘玉洪,等. 昆明城市气候水平空间分布特征[J]. 地理科学,2002,22(6):724~729.
[15] 施 能,陈家其,屠其璞.中国近100年来4个年代际的气候变化特征[J].气象学报,1995,53(4):431~439.
[16] 任国玉,周 薇.辽东半岛本世纪气温变化的初步研究[J].气象学报,1994,52(4):493~498.
[17] 赵昕奕,张惠远.全球气候变化影响下中国农业产量的可持续性[J].地理科学,2000,20(3):224~228.
