根据塔里木河干流1957～2008年的年径流量监测数据,利用线性回归法,对干流年径流量时间序列变化趋势进行分析,并借助相关分析和主成分分析法甄别影响径流变化的主要人为驱动因素。结果表明:近50多a来,塔河干流的年径流量呈显著递减趋势,与干流来水量变化趋势一致;人类活动自1975年左右开始明显的影响径流量,有效灌溉面积、农业人口、耕地面积和一产比重与径流变化相关程度最强,以引水灌溉为主体的农业经济活动成为影响径流变化的最重要因素;人类活动对径流变化的影响程度沿河道自上而下表现出逐渐增强的趋势。
According to the monitoring data of annual runoff in the mainstream of Tarim River from 1957 to 2008,the time series variation tendency of annual runoff in the mainstream is analyzed by using linear regression method,and then the connectivity between annual runoff and human social economic activities driving factors is made a thorough inquiry by means of correlation analysis and principal component.The study results are concluded as follows: In recent more than 50 years,the decreasing tendency of annual runoff in the mainstream of Tarim River is prominent,having the uniformity with the inflow volume change tendency of the mainstream.The human activities have been affecting obviously annual runoff since about 1975.At the same time the correlation analysis on annual runoff and human economic activities driving factors indicates that the factors,such as effective irrigated area,agricultural population,cultivated land area and the proportion of primary industry,have been farthest affecting annual runoff.So the agricultural economic activities have been the most important factors to influence the annual runoff change,among them the agricultural bringing in water and irrigation is the most direct factor to interfere with the water resources.The degree of human activities impacting on annual runoff change displays gradually enhanced tendency from the top to bottom along the river course of the mainstream of Tarim River.
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