论文

1880年以来石羊河出山径流量重建与变化特征

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  • 兰州大学资源环境学院 兰州大学干旱区水循环与水资源研究中心, 甘肃 兰州 730000

收稿日期: 2011-01-12

  修回日期: 2011-03-15

  网络出版日期: 1997-11-20

基金资助

国家自然科学基金(50879033)、国家基础科学人才培养基金项目(J1030519)共同资助。

Reconstruction of Runoff from Mountainous Watershed Since 1880 A .D. and Its Changing Characteristics in Shiyang River Basin

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  • College of Earth and Environment Science, Center for Hydrologic Cycle and Water Resources in Arid Region, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou, Gansu 730000, China

Received date: 2011-01-12

  Revised date: 2011-03-15

  Online published: 1997-11-20

摘要

在石羊河上游山区采集流域树木年轮样芯,建立高分辨率宽度年表。分析年表、降水和径流量间的相关关系,在它们间良好相关性基础上,分别利用多元逐步回归和提取主分量再回归方法重建金塔河和西营河历史时期上年9月至当年8月年径流量序列,以逐一剔除和交叉检验验证回归方程的稳定性和可靠性。1880年以来,石羊河年径流量共经历了4个枯水阶段和3个丰水阶段,而枯水年与丰水年出现的概率大致相同,且远低于平水年出现的概率。用多窗谱分析径流量序列周期变化,发现在不同置信水平上,年径流量存在2.58、2.76、3.28、3.53、4.14和22.2 a的周期。

本文引用格式

侯迎, 王乃昂, 张学敏, 路俊伟 . 1880年以来石羊河出山径流量重建与变化特征[J]. 地理科学, 2011 , 31(11) : 1396 -1402 . DOI: 10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2011.011.1396

Abstract

In the past few years, many serious ecological problems caused by the shortage of water resources, such as discontinuous surface runoff, dried lakes, lowered groundwater level, and deteriorated water quality had emerged in the Shiyang River Basin. But the hydrologic observation data were insufficient to understanding the extremes, and how hydrological variability may be changing in a warming world. Few high-resolution and long researches had been carried out in this region yet. Therefore, it’s necessary to sample tree-ring cores, and five new tree-ring width chronologies were developed in the upper reaches of Shiyang River Basin. To understand the hydrologic response of the radial growth of Picea crassifolia, correlation analyses of tree-ring chronologies with precipitation and runoff were conducted. The results showed that five chronologies were significantly and strongly related to total runoff from September of the previous year to August of the growing year (RSA); five chronologies also had significant and positive relationships with total precipitation from September of the previous year to August of the growing year (PSA); and the correlation coefficients between RSA and PSA were significant and positive. So, precipitation played a role of bridge and tie between tree-rings and runoff. Then, annual runoff series of Jinta River were reconstructed according to a multiple linear regression model, and runoff series of Xiying River were reconstructed utilizing principal components extraction and stepwise regression, and two models were tested by the methods of leave-one-out and cross-verification. There was a notable correlation between the two runoff series of Jinta River and Xiying River, with a correlation coefficient of 0.865, and two series had the same change tendency. So, it can be concluded that annual runoff series of Shiyang River had obvious low-frequency and high-frequency variations, and contained four severe dry periods (during 1880-1892, 1925-1935, 1960-1967, and 1997-2002) and three significant wet periods (occurred in 1894-1923, 1935-1959, and 1967-1986), and the appear frequency of low stream years and high stream years tended to middle . The dominant periods calculated by MTM spectrum analysis were 2.58 a, 2.76 a, 3.28 a, 3.53 a, 4.14 a, and 22.2 a at different significant levels.

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