将传统分析方法与空间数据分析方法相结合,建立空间数据模型,采用Surfer动态图,实态模拟南京旅游客流空间分布格局。研究发现:①南京市内部旅游流位序—规模分布非常典型。流量规模参数|q|大于1,但一直趋于减小,说明极化作用、不均衡发展仍是旅游流空间格局演变中主要特征。②南京市旅游流呈现显著的空间集聚特征。1995~2005年间,全局Moran’sI指数有一定的波动,1995年Moran’sI最小,2001年后,全局Moran’sI快速扩大。城市内部旅游流空间关联程度逐渐增强,局域范围内具有强烈的空间自相关特征。Local Moran’sI显著性检验表明,南京旅游流在局域范围内具有强烈的空间自相关特征。“高高”象限由1995年4个增至2005年8个;“低高”象限由1995年2个增至2005年8个,而“高低”象限变化不明显。③通过R型和Q型因子分析,识别了4个重要的旅游集聚场和扩散场,但首级集聚场和扩散场强度非常大。首级核旅游吸引力具有较广的吸引范围,且吸引景区级别较高。其它3个核吸引范围呈现分片区特征。扩散场分布相对均衡且“大分散、小集聚”。④根据研究结果构建了南京城市内部旅游流空间变化模式。20世纪90年代中期以来,南京市内部旅游流空间变化模式呈现出空间层次性、动态变化性特征。旅游流空间分布呈现从少数旅游节点向多数旅游节点转变,旅游节点体系逐渐发育成熟。
Urban tourist flow is an important content in the research of Tourism Geography.Although the study on urban tourist flow has been recognized, systematic studies of measuring urban tourist flows are still under-explored.This study presents a quantitative method for investigating urban tourism flow spatial change in Nanjing city by size-scale, spatial autocorrelation and factor analysis.At the same time, using software Surfer 8.0 and geographic information system, the paper established spatial data model and simulated spatial distribution pattern of tourist flows in Nanjing City.The study concludes that, 1) spatial difference law in tourist flows is found within the city.Tourist flow in Nanjing city still belongs to the spatial polarization stage, but the concentration tends to decline and the diffusion gradually strengthens.2) By examining the indexes of Global Moran’s I and Local Moran’s I, concentration of tourist flow is dominant and concentration and diffusion exist synchronously within the city.The tourist flow distribution has obviously positive spatial autocorrelation, which had been weaker in 1995-1999 and stronger in 2001-2005.With the increasing of the number of tourist nodes, the spatial nodal structure has grown gradually since 1995, reflecting more significant positive autocorrelation (spatial dependence).3) By factor analysis, four concentration and diffusion tourism fields are found.4) By using software Surfer 8.0, spatial distribution pattern is core-periphery model.The core tourist area lies in inner city, presenting convergency and concentricity.Meanwhile, the interaction between the tourist areas increased gradually.Tourist flow distribution curves showed characteristic of waves and leap forward.And 5) according to spatial change of tourist flows in Nanjing City, tourist flow mode was constructed.
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