以农用地转用环节征收数额较大、改革相对较早的新增建设用地土地有偿使用费为研究对象,建立BP神经网络模型,以江苏省为例,拟合新增费标准与耕地面积减少量之间的动态变化关系,通过虚拟仿真实验模拟不同新增费征收标准情景下的耕地保护效果。研究结果表明:通过新增费的政策设置,1999~2008年江苏省累计抑制耕地面积减少29.54hm²;通过新增费征收标准调整,2007~2008年江苏省抑制耕地面积减少10.90hm²,1999年和2007年两种征收标准下的耕地保护贡献度均在1%左右。研究得到以下结论:①新增费的设立增加了地方政府用地成本,对抑制耕地占用的规模和速度具有一定作用;②在一定范围内,新增费征收标准越高,耕地保护效果越好;③总体而言,新增费的耕地保护效果尚不显著,其贡献度仍较为有限,相关政策有待进一步的完善。

The effect of the land taxes and fees in cultivated land protection can make a good reference to the improvement and perfection of the land taxes and fees system.This paper studies the new construction land compensation fee, which is charged in comparatively large amounts and has experienced a reform in a long term.In the article, a BP neural network model is built at first to depict the dynamic relationship between the fee and the decrease of cultivated land.By taking Jiangsu Province as an example, the inspection showed that the fitting accuracy of the model is high enough and the fitting error can be controlled below 1%.Secondly, the cultivated land protection effect of the fee is analyzed via the virtual simulation experiment.The cultivated land decrease of Jiangsu Province in 1996-2008 was simulated, respectively under the circumstances of zero-fee standard, the fee standards in 1999 and 2007.The results indicate that the implement of the new construction compensation fee in Jiangsu Province has reduced the decrease of cultivated land by 29.54 hm² accumulatively in 1999-2008.While the reform of the fee also achieved a great performance in cultivated land protection, in 2007 and 2008, the decrease of cultivated land is reduced by 10.90 hm² due to the increase of the fee.But despite of the increase of the fee, the contribution of the fee to the cultivated land protection maintains is about 1%.The main conclusions are drawn:1) The new construction land compensation fee can add to the land-use cost of the local government to some extent, which helps to reduce the occupation of cultivated land; 2) The cultivated land area of Jiangsu province is highest in the 2007 fee standard and the lowest in zero-fee standard.So the 2007 fee standard is the best among the three standards.In some conditions, the higher the fee is, the better performance it plays in cultivated land protection; 3) On the whole, the contribution that new construction land compensation fee made in cultivated land protection is around 1%, which is relatively low; and the fee is not satisfactory in the effect of cultivated land protection.There are still a lot of efforts need to take in the policy making and implement.