以广州地铁3号线及周边住宅项目为例,综合运用可达性相等理论、比较分析法、hedonic模型和GIS空间分析技术,计算地铁对周边住宅价格的影响范围,实证分析其时空影响效应。空间效应结果表明:①地铁站点离市中心越近,影响范围越小,离城区越远,影响范围越大;②地铁对周边住宅具有明显的增值作用,住宅价格与地铁距离间呈显著的正向关系,距离越远影响效应越小;③分区域来看,地铁3号线对番禺区影响较显著,影响范围内住宅平均增值20.48%,而天河和海珠区影响范围内住宅平均增值8.73%。时间效应方面,地铁规划期对天河区和海珠区的房价影响不明显,对番禺区房价具有明显的正效应;施工期对周边房价的影响为先负向而后变为正向;运营期其正向影响更加明显。

Recently, along with the development of urbanization and urban rail transit system, the impact of urban rail transit system on real estate prices has become an interesting research topic, especially the theme of integrating temporal effects with spatial effects on real estate prices of surrounding areas has aroused more and more attention of Chinese and overseas scholars and specialists.On the basis of literature review about the impacts on real estate prices from urban rail transit system, using accessibility equality theory, comparative analysis method, hedonic price model including three characteristics:location, neighborhood and structure, GIS spatial analysis techniques, with a case of Guangzhou subway 3rd line and housing projects along the line, this article calculates the range of subway influencing the surrounding residential housing prices.And the spatio-temporal impact effects on the surrounding housing prices increment with the development of Guangzhou subway 3rd line from 2000 to 2007 is analyzed empirically, which includes the planning stage, the construction stage and the operational stage.The empirical results show:1) The nearer subway station away from city center, the smaller the influence range, and vice versa; 2) Subway contributes to the surrounding residential housing prices increment.Housing prices has a significantly positive correlation with the distances of houses away from subway, and the larger the distance the smaller the impact on the surrounding housing prices; 3) On sub-region variation, houses of Panyu District of Guangzhou are influenced the most, and average appreciation rate of houses in the impact range reaches to 20.48%, while those of Tianhe District and Haizhu District of Guangzhou are only 8.73%; 4) On temporal effect, subway shows a significantly positive effect on the surrounding housing prices of Panyu District of Guangzhou in the planning stage, but the effects in Tianhe District and Haizhu District of Guangzhou are not significant.The impact on the surrounding housing prices is firstly negative and then turns to be positive in the construction stage.The positive effects of the subway on housing prices become more prominent in the operational stage.In conclusion, the construction and operation of Guangzhou subway 3rd line have highly stimulated economic growth in its passed area, and also lead to the appreciation of housing values along the line.This study will provide a helpful reference for city planning, real estate exploitation and choosing and buying dwelling house of citizen.