利用1988~2007年统计数据和土地详查与变更调查资料,分析了长春市19a间耕地总量动态变化情况,并在此基础上运用主成分分析进一步探讨了影响长春市耕地变化的主要驱动因素。结果表明:①1988~2007年长春市耕地数量总体呈下降趋势;②经济发展是长春市耕地数量变化的主要驱动因素;③主成分分析中各因子的因子载荷除林牧渔业占农林牧渔业总产值为0.575外,其他均大于0.9;④耕地产出率与林牧渔业占农林牧渔业总产值的比例因子载荷相对较高。影响长春市耕地总量动态变化的驱动因子可归纳为社会经济发展、人口增长、农业科技进步三大因素。

The total dynamic changes of the cultivated land from 1988 to 2007 in Changchun City of Jinlin Province, China, were analyzed using the statistic data and the detailed inquisitional land materials and investigated alternated land information.On the basis of this, the main driving factors of the cultivated land amount changing were calculated using the principle component analysis.Ten correlated factors which influence the total quantity of cultivated land changing, such as total population, GDP, the investment of social fixed assets and the tertiary industrial output, etc.were also calculated at the mean time.The results shows that:from 1988 to 2007, the total amount of the cultivated land of Changchun decreased, and the economic development was the main driving factor of the amount of cultivated land in Changchun.In the principle analysis, the factors of the correlation matrix, such as the characteristic value, contribute ratio of principle component and the accumulated contribute ratio, correlated highly and inevitably.Most of the factor loadings are bigger than 0.9 except that of forestry, animal husbandry and fishery, which count for 0.575 out of the total output.Proportionality factor loads of the yield rates of the cultivated land, forestry and fishery are relatively high in the total output.It can be concluded that the main driving factors of the dynamic change of land cultivation amount are socio-economic development, population increasing and the progress of the agricultural techniques.