区域经济增长是有着丰富时空内涵的动态变化过程,认识和定量分析这种动态变化过程一直受到广泛关注。借助农业区位论、增长极理论和梯度推移理论的学术思想、概念和术语,在量化定义区域经济增长空间概念的基础上,提出了基于GIS技术的区域经济增长时空分异模拟方法,进而以京津冀都市圈为例进行实证研究和专业分析。研究结果表明:京津冀都市圈由城市增长极中心向外围,随着距离的增大,经济增长呈现出了显著的衰减特征,不同城市之间存在着明显的经济低谷地带。1993~2003年期间,都市圈的经济增长时空分异尤以京、津两市的极化增长最为显著;京、津两大增长极除对唐山方向有拉动效应外,对其它地市的带动辐射力度尚较小;都市圈内部的城市等级还未完全展开,尚未形成合理的梯度推移和梯级演化结构。
Regional economic growth is a complicated dynamic process reflected by two variables of space and time,and quantitative analysis of that process has been always attracting wide attention.On the grounds of the basic concepts and academic thoughts of agricultural location theory,growth pole theory and gradient shift theory,this paper first quantifies the concept of regional economic growth space,then provides one method based on GIS to simulate the spatial and temporal differentiation of regional economic growth,and finally carries out a professional analysis across cities of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei(BTH) Metropolitan Region.Results of the case study are shown as follows: 1) The economic development across different cities in BTH Metropolitan Region decays remarkably with the distance growing from the center of city(which can be seen as the growth pole) to its periphery,and there exist less-developed areas in different growth poles of city.The economic valley zone between the city of Beijing and Baoding is 80-100km to the center of Beijing,and that between Baoding and Shijiazhuang is 80-120km to the city center of Shijiazhuang.2) The characteristics of the spatial and temporal differentiation of economic growth in BTH Metropolitan Region over the 1993-2003 period embodies in the polarized development of the two largest city of Beijing and Tianjin.The pull effect of Beijing and Tianjin as the growth pole of BTH Metropolitan Region to its peripheral cities is comparatively weak except to Tangshan,and the pattern of gradient shift and the structure of gradient evolution in BTH Metropolitan Region have not come into being.3) As predicted,BTH Metropolitan Region would still be in the stage of polarizing growth in the coming 5-10 years,and the characteristics of regional economic differentiation will still embody polarized growth of city.
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