利用广东省86个地面站的降水和气温资料,定义广东省月干湿气候指数。定义的干湿气候指数可以明显地区分广东省干湿季,而且对春季粤南偏旱、秋季粤北偏旱也有反映,体现指数定义的合理性。趋势分析表明:全省2~3月、7~8月和12月明显变湿,而10~11月显著变干,其余月份趋势不明显。趋势分析结果指出,广东省未来的秋季旱情可能有加重的趋势,而冬春季旱情会有所缓解。各月趋势的空间分布有很大差异,分析结果指出,其年际变率的主要影响因子可能为海-气相互作用过程和陆-气相互作用过程。
Although there is an annual mean precipitation about 1 700 mm in Guangdong Province, it greatly varies with season and region. Flood season (April-September) includes above 80% rainfall of a year, and meanwhile the rainfall has a significant intra-seasonal variability. On the other hand, large evaporation due to high average air temperature also balances some part of the great precipitation in Guangdong. An index to reflect the drought is defined using rainfall and temperature observations of 86 surface stations in Guangdong. The index distinguishes the dry and wet season in Guangdong and reflects the fact that there is a dryer climate in the south than elsewhere of Guangdong in spring and a wetter climate in the north in fall, which indicates the index is reasonable. The trend analyses give an understanding of the linear humidity change. For the whole province of Guangdong, the climates from February to March, from July to August and December tend to be wetter than before, and dryer from October to November and few changes in months else. The results show that the autumn drought would be more severe in the future and the winter-spring drought would be lighter. The spatial distribution of the linear trends has a great difference and its interannual variability is affected by air-sea and air-land interactions.
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