运用非参数检验、R/S分析和小波分析等方法对塔里木河三源流的年径流序列进行了分析。结果表明:阿克苏河与叶儿羌河的突变点在1993年,而和田河在1978年;阿克苏河径流呈显著增加趋势而叶儿羌河增加不显著,结合其Hurst指数可知,在未来阿克苏河仍将保持增加走势而叶尔羌河将转变为减少;和田河径流呈轻微的减少趋势,其Hurst指数接近于0.5,具有随机性,不可做长程预测;阿克苏河在6、18、22 a周期性明显,和田河主周期为9和17 a,而叶尔羌河在3、9、13和17 a处周期性明显。
Based on the observed annual runoff data of 5 hydrological stations in Tarim River headstreams areas from 1957 to 2008, the paper studied the annual trend, abrupt change, periodicity and the coming period trends by use of the nonparametric test, R/S analysis and wavelet analysis and so on. The results showed that: (1) Both Aksu river and Yarkand river of which the jump points happened at 1993 hold significant step change, but Hetian river expressed a slightly decreasing step trend and is not significant;(2)Aksu river holds a significant increasing trend but Yarkand river the trend is not, and based on the Hurst exponents(Aksu:0.777>0.5,Yarkand:0.485 7<0.5) of two the streams, the annual runoff of Aksu river will keep an increasing trend and Yarkand river will be in reverse in the coming period; Hetian river has a slightly decreasing trend and the Hurst exponent is 0.501 4, which equals 0.5 approximately and indicates that the annual runoff process is in chaos, then it can not be taken a long-term predict .(3) The primary periods of Aksu river and Hetian river are 6a, 18a, 22a and 9a, 17a respectively, otherwise, Yarkant river is at 3a,9a,13a and 17a.
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