基于青海和西藏地区48个气象台站近48 a(1961~2008年)的逐日降水资料,分析青藏高原冬、夏半年强降水量的时空演变特征。结果表明:青藏高原强降水量与总降水量的空间分布相似,夏半年为由东南向西北递减,冬半年则由唐古拉山脉东段的高原腹地向四周递减;夏(冬)半年强降水量存在准3、准6 a(7~8 a)的年际振荡以及准9~10 a(15 a)的年代际振荡;夏半年高原北(南)部强降水量以增加(减少)趋势为主,强降水量呈现出微弱的减少趋势,而冬半年高原大多数地区均呈现出明显的增加趋势,在1976年发生突变现象。
Based on the daily precipitation data of 48 stations over the Tibetan Plateau from 1961 to 2008, the characteristics of spatial and temporal distribution during the summer and winter half years over the Plateau are analyzed. It is shown that the spatial distribution of strong precipitation is very similar to that of the total precipitation over the Plateau, which decreases from southeast to northwest during the summer half year, while declines from the hinterland of the Plateau located in the east of Tanggula Mountains to the surrounding during the winter half year. The heavy precipitation during the summer half year has inter-annual oscillation cycle with quasi-three years, quasi 6 years and decadal oscillation cycle with quasi 10-11 years, while has the cycle with 6-7 years and decadal cycle with quasi 15 years during the winter half year. The trend of heavy rainfall is quite different in spatial distribution. During the summer half year, it increases (decreases) in most regions over the northern (southern) Plateau. The overall heavy precipitation of the Tibetan Plateau shows a weak decreasing trend during the summer half year and an increasing trend in the Yarlung Zangbo River during the winter half year. There was an abrupt change of precipitation in 1976.
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