利用四川盆地实测气象资料、NCEP/NCAR再分析资料以及NCDC全球气温距平资料,分析了四川盆地降水变化的区域差异。结果表明:盆地降水空间异常分布主要呈东西振荡特征,近46 a来,盆西降水显著减少,盆东降水总体变化趋势不明显。青藏高原夏季风指数、西太平洋副热带高压北界和脊线指数与盆地夏季降水的相关场表现为盆西和盆东反号分布,表明高原夏季风和西太副高可能是盆地降水东西振荡分布的重要原因。通过与全球气温变化的回归分析发现,盆地降水变化趋势的区域差异,特别是盆西地区的暖干化可能是对全球变暖的区域响应。
Daily meteorological data of Sichuan basin, NCEP/ NCAR reanalysis data and global temperature anomalies data of NCDC were employed to diagnose the spatial differences of precipitation in Sichuan basin. The results show that the main spatial distribution of precipitation in Sichuan Basin appears to be east-west oscillation, from 1961 to 2006. The precipitation of western basin decreases significantly, but that in the eastern basin was not obvious decreased. There is a reverse distribution between plateau summer monsoon index, north boundary index and ridge index of west Pacific subtropical high and summer precipitation of Sichuan basin, which indicates that plateau summer monsoon and west Pacific ocean subtropical high may be the important reasons of the east-west oscillation of precipitation in Sichuan Basin. Using the regressive analysis and composition analysis, we found that the anomalies of precipitation over Sichuan basin have a relationship with the global mean temperature. With air temperature increasing, the precipitation over the western basin decreases significantly, while the trend in the eastern basin was not obvious, which indicates that the spatial differences of precipitation trends, especially for warming and drying of climate in western basin, are the response to global warming.
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