在系统分析基础上,利用系统动力学方法,以宜兴市为典型区,模拟城市化过程对磷发生量的影响,建立二者间的定量响应关系。结果表明,不论是在何种城市化发展速度下,磷的发生总量都会有较大幅度的增加,而目前规划的污水处理水平只能小幅度削减流域内磷的排放量,不足以从根本上扭转太湖水质持续恶化的趋势。在推进太湖流域城市化的进程中,必须加大投入,进一步加强环境基础设施建设,更大幅度地削减磷等营养物质的排放。
Phosphorus is the limiting factor of Taihu Lake eutrophication and domestic sewage is its leading P source.In this regard,reducing phosphorus emission from urban section is an urgent priority.However,rapid urbanization in the watershed has a negative impact on the water quality improvement of the lake because most of the municipal effluent in the area is now discharged into river systems without or with only minor treatment.In this study,a system dynamic model was developed and applied in Yixing City,a case area in Taihu Lake watershed,to relate phosphorus emission and urbanization rate.Phosphorus generated in the case area will continue to rise with the urban expansion.Planned waste water treatment capacity can only slightly reduce P emission from its present level in the near future.The improvement of water quality of the lake lies largely on enlarged capacity of municipal domestic sewage treatment.The results of this study can be used as a theoretical base for realizing sustainable coordinative development between society,economy and environment in the area.
[1] Dokulil M,M Chen,Q Cai.Anthropogenic impacts to large lakes in China:the Taihu example[J].Aquatic Ecosystem Health and Management,2000,3:81～ 94.
[2] 金相灿,叶春,颜昌宙,等.太湖重点污染控制区综合治理方案研究[J].环境科学研究,1999,12(5):1～5.
[3] 车秀珍,尚金城,陈冲.城市化进程中的战略环境评价(SEA)初探[J].地理科学,2001,21(6):554～557.
[4] 徐开钦,林诚二,牧秀明.长江干流主要营养盐含量的变化特征[J].地理学报,2004,59(1):119～124.
[5] Liu X,W Wang.A relationship between red tide outbreaks and urban development along the coasts of Guangdong Province[J].Journal of Geographical Sciences,2004,14(2):219-225.
[6] 刘耀彬,宋学锋.城市化与生态环境耦合模式及判别[J].地理科学,2005,25(4):408～414.
[7] 王富喜,林炳耀.新世纪山东省城镇化可持续发展问题研究[J].地理科学,2005,25(3):263～267.
[8] 刘恩峰,沈吉,朱育新.西太湖沉积物污染的地球化学记录及对比研究[J].地理科学,2005,25(1):102～107.
[9] 盛学良,舒金华,彭补拙,等.江苏省太湖流域总氮、总磷排放标准研究[J].地理科学,2002,22(4):449～452.
[10] 高超,朱继业,戴科伟,等.快速城市化进程中的太湖水环境保护:困境与出路[J].地理科学,2003,23(6):746～750.
[11] 王其藩.系统动力学[M].北京:清华大学出版社,1988.
[12] 王桥,毛锋.运用系统动态学方法研究区域可持续发展问题的一些探讨[J].地理科学,1998,18(6):574～580.
[13] 张雪花,郭怀成.SD-MOP整合模型在秦皇岛市生态环境规划中的应用[J].环境科学学报,2002,22(1):93～97
[14] 何春阳,史培军,李景刚,等.中国北方未来土地利用变化情景模拟[J].地理学报,2004,59(4):599～607.
[15] Cassell E A,J M Dorioz,R L Kort,et al.Modeling phosphorus dynamics in ecosystems:mass balance and dynamic simulation approaches[J].J.Environ.Qual.,1998,27:293-298
[16] Guo H C,L Liu,G H Huang,et al.A system dynamics approach for regional environmental planning and management:A study for the Lake Erhai Basin[J].J.Environ.Manage.,2001,61:93-111.
[17] Stave K A.A-system dynamics model to facilitate public understanding of water management options in Las Vegas,Nevada[J].J.Environ.Manage,2003,67:303-313.
[18] 彭克明,裴保义.农业化学[M].北京:农业出版社,1981.
[19] Sedlak R I.Phosphorus and nitrogen removal from municipal wastewater:Principles and practice[M].New York:2nd edition,Lewis Publishers,1991.
[20] Schouw N L,S Danteravanich,H Mosbaek,et al.Composition of human excreta-a case study from Southern Thailand[J].Sci.Total Environ.,2002,286:155-166.
[21] 黄文钰,舒金华,许朋柱.太湖宜溧河流域洗衣粉排磷贡献率的研究[J].海洋湖沼通报,2000,22(4):20～25.
[22] Economopoulos A P.Assessment of Sources of Air,Water and Land Pollution,Part One:Rapid Inventory Techniques in Environmental Pollution[M].WHO/PEP/GETNET/93_1-A.World Health Organization,Geneva,1993.
[23] 张水铭,马杏法.苏南太湖地区农业面源磷的污染[J].土壤,1993,25(6):141～143.
