文章从中国160个站的观测资料中选取位于东北气候和生态过渡区内9个测站的冬、夏季降水和温度资料,分析该地区近50年来冬夏季降水和温度的年际变化及其概率分布特征,结果表明,东北气候和生态过渡区的冬夏季降水和温度有明显的年代际变化特征,在不同的年代际变化阶段,降水和温度的总体概率分布特征差异较大,这种概率分布形式的差异与高温、干旱等极端天气气候事件的频繁发生具有密切关系。20世纪80年代以来降水处于平均值减小的总体分布中,温度则处于平均值增加的总体分布中,因此该地区冬季发生暖冬和少雨(雪)的机会增大,夏季出现严重干旱和高温的可能性增大。
Changes in the occurrence frequency, strength and location of the extreme weather and climate events will occur with global warming. It is of interest to study if the frequent occurrence of extreme weather and climate events is related to change of the climatic background. In this paper, the winter and summer precipitation and temperature data in the climatic and ecological transition zone of Northeast China are used to investigate the interannual variation and probability distribution characteristics of precipitation and temperature in recent 50 years. Results show that there exist significant interdecadal variations in winter and summer precipitation and temperature, and the probability distribution characteristics are different in different periods. The probability distribution differences are probably related to the frequent occurrence of extreme weather and climate events such as high temperature, drought, flooding in recent years. Since the 1980's, precipitation has been in the probability distribution of low ensemble average, and temperature in the probability distribution of high ensemble average. Thus, occurrence probabilities of warm-dry winter and hot-drought summer will increase in the climatic and ecological transition zone of Northeast China.
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