基于中国553个气象站点1958~2000年日降水量资料、北方295个气象站点同期(20(cm)蒸发皿资料,界定出半干旱区和农牧交错区各自的范围。利用东亚夏季风强度指数(1951~1995年)与印度夏季降水量(1951~1998年)资料, 分析了半干旱区和农牧交错区东南-西北界10年际空间变化与亚洲夏季风的关系。近50年中国干湿、农牧气候界线的动态变化是影响中国的季风环流强弱作用在空间上的实物表现, 季风环流的强弱变化控制着气候界线空间摆动的范围与方向, 其年代际变化是中国干湿、农牧气候界线呈现出年代际变化特征的根源。分析显示, 在现代情况下, 农牧气候界线位置的空间摆动主要反映人类生产活动强度的强弱差异, 人为因素起主导作用。

Herein, we use aridity index, isohyet, and correlation analysis methods to decide the locations and ranges of semi-arid zone, agriculture and pasture interlaced zone, East Asian summer monsoon, and Indian summer monsoon, respectively. Daily precipitation and 20 evaporation pans data were collected between 1958 and 2000 at 553(on the whole China) and 295(in northern China) meteorological stations operated by the Chinese Meteorological Administration. We also use East Asian summer monsoon intensity index data in the period of 1951 to 1995 and Indian summer monsoon intensity index data during 1951 to 1998. The semi-arid zone and ecotone between agriculture and animal husbandry lie along the border of the monsoon, and are thus zones that are highly susceptible zone to environmental change in China, with a direction from northeast to southwest in the middle part of China. We analyze the position variations in the dry and wet climate boundaries and agro-pasturing climate boundaries, and the relations between them and Asian monsoon at 101 year time scale. Study results show that the shifts boundary of agriculture and animal husbandry interlaced zone are weaker than those of the dry and wet climate boundaries. The semi-arid climate zone and ecotone between agriculture and animal husbandry in China are the interlaced regions in East Asia monsoon, India monsoon and other circulations. The different types of circulation and the strength of these circulations result in the regional and temporal differences in their spatial locations. When East Asian summer monsoon strengthens, southeastern boundaries in semiarid zone and ecotone between agriculture and animal husbandry shift northwestward. When Indian summer monsoon is strong, southeastern boundaries in both these zones transfer southeastward. When East Asian summer monsoon and Indian summer monsoon are all strong, arid/semiarid and semiarid/humid boundaries shift northwestward. Diagrammatic presentation in natural factors and analysis in human factors show that spatial shifts in positions in boundaries of agriculture and animal husbandry interlaced zone are mainly a human-induced process, which reflects largely the strengths in human production activity in the present period.