由于城市的快速发展和土地利用覆被变化,由暴雨或台风引起的内涝已成为全球研究的热点。潜在的内涝风险危及建筑及室内财产安全。文章应用简化内涝模型模拟上海市中心城区不同情境下的积水情况,并根据每幢建筑室内进水深度对其进行暴露性分级。然后分析、评价了上海市中心城区建筑不同情境下的暴雨内涝灾害暴露性。研究结果发现:仓储和旧式住宅是最易暴露在内涝灾害中的建筑类型;总体上,杨浦、普陀和徐汇区是政府最需要采取安全措施的区域,长宁和虹口区处于中等暴露性水平;同时,内涝对黄浦、静安、卢湾和闸北区影响很小。研究结果可为地方政府改善内涝风险管理提供参考依据。
Due to rapid urban development and land use and land cover changes, the waterlogging induced by torrential rain or typhoon in urban areas has been a global hotspot and a potential risk affecting the safety of urban buildings and interior property.This study applied a simplified urban waterlogging model to simulating the inundated water depth in central urban area of Shanghai under different scenarios.And each building was ranked according to its degree of exposure indicated by the inundation depth.Finally, the exposure of buildings to rainstorm waterlogging in central urban area of Shanghai under different scenarios was analyzed and evaluated.The results showed that the warehousing and the old-style residence are the most vulnerable building types when exposed to waterlogging disasters.On the whole, Yangpu District, Putuo District and Xuhui District are the important regions for the government to carry out safety defense, Changning District and Hongkou District have medium exposure rank, and the waterlogging brings little effects in Huangpu District, Jing’an District, Luwan District and Zhabei District.These results will provide references for the local government to improve waterlogging risk management.
[1] 陈振楼,王 军,刘 敏,等.上海市主要自然灾害特点与应对策略[J].华东师范大学学报(自然科学版),2008,(5):116~125.
[2] 魏一鸣.自然灾害复杂性研究[J].地理科学,1998,18(1):25~31.
[3] 石 勇,许世远,石 纯,等.沿海区域水灾脆弱性及风险的初步分析[J].地理科学,2009,29(6):853~857.
[4] Shi Y,Shi C,Xu S Y,et al.Exposure assessment of rainstorm waterlogging on old-style residences in Shanghai based on scenario simulation[J].Natural Hazards,2010,53(2):259~272.
[5] 叶正伟,许有鹏,徐金涛.江苏里下河地区洪涝灾害演变趋势与成灾机理分析[J].地理科学,2009,29(6):880~885.
[6] Oliveri E,Santoro M.Estimation of urban structural flood damages:the case study of Palermo[J].Urban Water,2000,2(3):223-234.
[7] 解以扬,李大鸣,李培彦,等.城市暴雨内涝数学模型的研究与应用[J].水科学进展,2005,16(3):284~390.
[8] Li D M,Zhang H P,Li B F,et al.Basic theory and mathematical modeling of urban rainstorm waterlogging[J].Journal of Hydromechanics,Ser.B,2004,16(1):17-27.
[9] Quan R S,Liu M,Lu M,et al.Waterlogging risk assessment based on land use/cover change:a case study in Pudong New Area,Shanghai[J].Environmental Earth Sciences,2010,61(6):1113~1121.
[10] 汤国安,杨 昕.ArcGIS地理信息系统空间分析实验教程[M].北京:科学出版社,2006.
[11] 尹占娥.城市自然灾害风险评估与实证研究[D].华东师范大学,2009.
[12] 权瑞松,刘 敏,侯立军,等.土地利用动态变化对地表径流的影响——以上海浦东新区为例[J].灾害学,2009,24(1):1~6.
[13] 程 江,杨 凯,赵 军,等.上海中心城区河流水系百年变化及其影响因素分析[J].地理科学,2007,27(1):85~91.
[14] 袁志伦.上海水旱灾害[M].南京:河海大学出版社,1999.
[15] 袁 雯,杨 凯,吴建平.城市化进程中平原河网地区河流结构特征及其分类方法研讨[J].地理科学,2007,27(3):401~407.
[16] 龚士良,杨世伦.地面沉降对上海黄浦江防汛工程的影响分析[J].地理科学,2008,28(4):543~547.
[17] 施雅风,朱季文,谢志仁,等.长江三角洲及毗连地区海平面上升影响预测与防治对策[J].中国科学(D辑),2000,30(3):225~332.
