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东北地区粮食生产潜力的分析与预测

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  • 1. 中国科学院长春地理研究所 长春130021;
    2. 中国科学院沈阳应用生态研究所 沈阳110015;
    3. 中国科学院黑龙江农业现代化研究所 哈尔滨150040

收稿日期: 1998-02-12

  修回日期: 1998-08-19

  网络出版日期: 1998-11-20

基金资助

中国科学院农业项目办资助

ANALYSIS AND PREDICTION OF GRAIN PRODUCTION POTENTIAL IN NORTHEAST REGION

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  • 1. Changchun Institute of Geography, the Chinese Academy of Sciences, Changchun 130021;
    2. Shenyang Institute of Applied Ecology, the Chinese Academy of Sciences, Shenyang 110015;
    3. Heilongjiang Institute of Agriculture Modernization, the Chinese Academy of Sciences, Harbin 150040

Received date: 1998-02-12

  Revised date: 1998-08-19

  Online published: 1998-11-20

摘要

在东北地区粮食生产发展过程及原因系统分析的基础上,根据统计资料、资源环境遥感调查和实地考察、定位试验的最新数据,分别阐述与粮食增产有关的种植业与大农业结构调整、水资源开发、中低产田改造、物质投入、科技与政策投入潜力.采用土地生物生产能力模型和趋势外推法预测该区2010年、2030年粮食总产以及可提供的区际商品粮数量.

本文引用格式

刘兴土, 佟连军, 武志杰, 梁文举, 邴印忠, 王建国 . 东北地区粮食生产潜力的分析与预测[J]. 地理科学, 1998 , 18(6) : 501 -509 . DOI: 10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.1998.06.501

Abstract

On the basis of systematic analysis of developing process and cause of grain production in northeast region, according to statistical data, remote sensing survey of resources and environment and field investigation, the latest data of fixed position test, this paper expounds the potentials in such aspects as the platation relating to grain increase and macro-agriculture structure adjustment, middle and low yield farmland transformation, material input for water resource exploitation, scientific techniques and policies input.With the land biological production capacity model and trend it is predicted that the comprehensive production capacity of grain in northeast region in 2010 and 2030 will reach 1023-1038 billion kg and 126.5-133.8 billion kg respectively.Based on two standards of 400kg and 460kg of grain demand per capita, it is predicted that by 2030 the commercial grain provided by this region can meet 50% of grain demand of newly increased population of China.This region has huge potetial of increase grain yield. But there exist a lot of difficulties and problems, mainly poor agricultural infrastructure, low anti-disaster capacity. The following suggestions are made that is, to continue to strengthen input to the policies, materials, techniques and funds for middle and low yield farmland transformation, commercial grain base construction, to carry out "deliver water from north to south" project, stabilize grain sowing area, to establish multiple food production system, to improve agricultural eco-environment, to insist on sustainable development.

参考文献

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