在东北地区粮食生产发展过程及原因系统分析的基础上,根据统计资料、资源环境遥感调查和实地考察、定位试验的最新数据,分别阐述与粮食增产有关的种植业与大农业结构调整、水资源开发、中低产田改造、物质投入、科技与政策投入潜力.采用土地生物生产能力模型和趋势外推法预测该区2010年、2030年粮食总产以及可提供的区际商品粮数量.

On the basis of systematic analysis of developing process and cause of grain production in northeast region, according to statistical data, remote sensing survey of resources and environment and field investigation, the latest data of fixed position test, this paper expounds the potentials in such aspects as the platation relating to grain increase and macro-agriculture structure adjustment, middle and low yield farmland transformation, material input for water resource exploitation, scientific techniques and policies input.With the land biological production capacity model and trend it is predicted that the comprehensive production capacity of grain in northeast region in 2010 and 2030 will reach 1023-1038 billion kg and 126.5-133.8 billion kg respectively.Based on two standards of 400kg and 460kg of grain demand per capita, it is predicted that by 2030 the commercial grain provided by this region can meet 50% of grain demand of newly increased population of China.This region has huge potetial of increase grain yield. But there exist a lot of difficulties and problems, mainly poor agricultural infrastructure, low anti-disaster capacity. The following suggestions are made that is, to continue to strengthen input to the policies, materials, techniques and funds for middle and low yield farmland transformation, commercial grain base construction, to carry out "deliver water from north to south" project, stabilize grain sowing area, to establish multiple food production system, to improve agricultural eco-environment, to insist on sustainable development.